Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[orangeblood]

From what I can tell, this has been playing out the way the models depicted it would starting with last nights models run. Even the short range models show the transitions zone along I-20 all afternoon then moving a little south into early evening.

[Dustan78]

captin crunch, we right by each other. Im at 35 and yucca just north of downtown.

[Texas Snowman]

.UPDATE...
MODERATE SNOW ONGOING BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2-5 INCHES
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.
-----

Curious, since NWS reports widespread 2-5" accumulations ALREADY, do you think they will be revising their forecasted amounts of 3-5" upwards anytime soon?

BTW, looking at the Intellicast radar shots, it seems that transition line has really kicked southwards (to the west of Fort Worth) in recent frames...

[iorange55]

Will the heavy snow this evening be rain? or will it get colder?



Just got my camera off to take pictures.

[Ntxw]

Will the heavy snow this evening be rain? or will it get colder?



Just got my camera off to take pictures.

I think it's going to be all snow north of I-20, we all freak and jump and every frame the line shifts north or south, but generally all morning it's been in the same area just south of I-20 lol

[iorange55]

Will the heavy snow this evening be rain? or will it get colder?



Just got my camera off to take pictures.

I think it's going to be all snow north of I-20, we all freak and jump and every frame the line shifts north or south, but generally all morning it's been in the same area just south of I-20 lol

Yeah when I went to get my camera it was kind of like really small snow to almost sleet and then on the way back it was heavy big wet snow.

[CaptinCrunch]

captin crunch, we right by each other. Im at 35 and yucca just north of downtown.

Sweet, My building is up on the hill E side of 35, N side of 30. I look out across the interchange and DT FTW. Another wave is moving in, as I can no longer see the highest over pass of the interchange. Looks like light snow/sleet mix falling, and of course I cant even see Down Town at all....

[AggieSpirit]

Will the heavy snow this evening be rain? or will it get colder?



Just got my camera off to take pictures.

I think it's going to be all snow north of I-20, we all freak and jump and every frame the line shifts north or south, but generally all morning it's been in the same area just south of I-20 lol

Well - we are a good 15 miles or so south of I-20 here in Midlothian -- still snowing here.

[Ntxw]

That rain/snow line is jumping down to the hillsboro - bosque counties areas. Whew, came too close for comfort for awhile there lol

[ColdFusion]

We had a period here @ Tollway/635 where some rain mixed in and it knocked a lot of the snow off the branches and cars. Bummer.

[orangeblood]

I would think the snow ratios should start to slowly increase as the upper level trough approaches, with the highest snow ratios being at the back end of the precip field. It appears that the last snow band should start to move through around 8-10 pm tonight. With the sun already set, this is when the roads might give us the most problems or soon thereafter.

[serenata09]

Any chance for San Antonio to get in on a little winter precip later this evening?

[txtiff]

Sleet!!! Oh no no no no....

[txagwxman]

Ok...after careful analysis...NW Houston is going to get it tonight. Once the upper-level ejects out, it should lower the mid-level temperatures just enough, plus just enough cold advection from the north from DFW/CRS/CLL should do the trick. At the last moment before the upper-level low kicks out---we will turn to snow in Tomball, Conroe, Magnolia.

May see 1/4".

[tim_aka_tim]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1117 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
FOUR STATE AREA...

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ126-138-151-153-112130-
/O.CON.KSHV.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100212T2200Z/
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MARION-HARRISON-PANOLA-SHELBY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...
HOMER...RUSTON...FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...
BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...
WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...JENA...JEFFERSON...MARSHALL...
CARTHAGE...CENTER
1117 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST FRIDAY.

SNOW HAS BEGUN TO FALL IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM IN
THE WARNING AREA.

THE MAIN ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WET OR SLUSHY THROUGH THE
EVENT...HOWEVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND RURAL AND SECONDARY
ROADS THAT HAVE LESS TRAFFIC MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS AT TIMES.

&&

[wxman22]

Ok...after careful analysis...NW Houston is going to get it tonight. Once the upper-level ejects out, it should lower the mid-level temperatures just enough, plus just enough cold advection from the north from DFW/CRS/CLL should do the trick. At the last moment before the upper-level low kicks out---we will turn to snow in Tomball, Conroe, Magnolia.

May see 1/4".

Yep NWS Houston/Galveston has issues a winter weather advisory for far northeast counties

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
944 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. 12Z NAM COMING
IN A BIT COLDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING
AROUND 09Z. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SIX NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z. OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA...RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LATE TODAY...JET DYNAMICS INCREASE AS SE TEXAS WILL LIE IN A LEFT
FRONT QUAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT. 850 MB CONVERGENCE PEAKS
BETWEEN 00-03Z OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND AROUND 06Z OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE ZONES BUT SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT 500 MB TROUGH COULD CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SPARKS OF LIGHTNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
A STRONG TEMP INVERSION...SO FRIDAY IS LOOKING RATHER CLOUDY AND
COOL. NEW ZONES OUT BY 10 AM.

THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA WILL RECEIVE A COLD RAIN FOR THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT SNOW BUT
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR RAIN AND SLEET AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. 43

[orangeblood]

Latest RUC model run shows a moderate to heavy snow band forming from Fort Worth to Decatur around 2 or 3 pm, with 1 to 2 inches of snow/hour.

[katheria]

Latest RUC model run shows a moderate to heavy snow band forming from Fort Worth to Decatur around 2 or 3 pm, with 1 to 2 inches of snow/hour.

send it garlands way...as usual we have a umbrella over our heads not even snowing here now.....

[WeatherKing]

Snow becoming to get drier here at 635 and tollway with bigger flakes again.

[txagwxman]

Ok...after careful analysis...NW Houston is going to get it tonight. Once the upper-level ejects out, it should lower the mid-level temperatures just enough, plus just enough cold advection from the north from DFW/CRS/CLL should do the trick. At the last moment before the upper-level low kicks out---we will turn to snow in Tomball, Conroe, Magnolia.

May see 1/4".

I was actually just making that up...I am -removed-...but maybe I get an ice pellet or something in the morning.