Texas Winter 2014-2015

Winter Weather Discussion

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Wntrwthrguy
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#6601 Postby Wntrwthrguy » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:15 am

Is the RGEM model giving the Austin area any accumulation tomorrow or just light non-accumulating snow?
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6602 Postby txtiff » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:16 am

Little, itty, bitty flakes falling in Kaufman right now. When is the next chance suppose to start?
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#6603 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:18 am

Wntrwthrguy wrote:Is the RGEM model giving the Austin area any accumulation tomorrow or just light non-accumulating snow?

It shows y'all being on the edge with around .5".
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6604 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:18 am

Nope I'm not buying anything for tomorrow. :roll: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6605 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:19 am

txtiff wrote:Little, itty, bitty flakes falling in Kaufman right now. When is the next chance suppose to start?

Looks like snow could again fall in North Texas starting tomorrow morning with chances all day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6606 Postby SouthernMet » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:21 am

Porta just to reinterate what I said yesterday again, RGEM nailed yesterday's event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6607 Postby txtiff » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:22 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:
txtiff wrote:Little, itty, bitty flakes falling in Kaufman right now. When is the next chance suppose to start?

Looks like snow could again fall in North Texas starting tomorrow morning with chances all day.


Sounds good to me!

With what we saw yesterday, I won't mind if things don't go as planned (again). :wink:
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#6608 Postby TarrantWx » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:24 am

FWIW, yesterday's 12z RGEM nailed this morning's snowfall also.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6609 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:34 am

SouthernMet wrote:Porta just to reinterate what I said yesterday again, RGEM nailed yesterday's event.


I'd gladly take 0.5" of snow tomorrow. Beggars can't be choosers. :wink:

But I'm expecting nothing that way I won't be disappointed.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6610 Postby downsouthman1 » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:38 am

Portastorm wrote:
SouthernMet wrote:Porta just to reinterate what I said yesterday again, RGEM nailed yesterday's event.


I'd gladly take 0.5" of snow tomorrow. Beggars can't be choosers. :wink:

But I'm expecting nothing that way I won't be disappointed.

That's what I'm doing for my chances of more wintry precip, expecting nothing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6611 Postby SouthernMet » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:38 am

CMC gives north texas significant accumulations tomorrow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6612 Postby Wntrwthrguy » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:39 am

Portastorm wrote:
SouthernMet wrote:Porta just to reinterate what I said yesterday again, RGEM nailed yesterday's event.


I'd gladly take 0.5" of snow tomorrow. Beggars can't be choosers. :wink:

But I'm expecting nothing that way I won't be disappointed.


Who knows Porta? Maybe this can be our snow day! I'm not expecting anything either but you figure we have to get a surprise one of these days!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6613 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:43 am

downsouthman1 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
SouthernMet wrote:Porta just to reinterate what I said yesterday again, RGEM nailed yesterday's event.


I'd gladly take 0.5" of snow tomorrow. Beggars can't be choosers. :wink:

But I'm expecting nothing that way I won't be disappointed.

That's what I'm doing for my chances of more wintry precip, expecting nothing.


Or we could get 0.0005" of freezing drizzle. Why buck the trend? The trend is our friend -- NOT. :lol: :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6614 Postby TarrantWx » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:45 am

SouthernMet wrote:CMC gives north texas significant accumulations tomorrow.


:eek: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_16.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6615 Postby iorange55 » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:49 am

TarrantWx wrote:
SouthernMet wrote:CMC gives north texas significant accumulations tomorrow.


:eek: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_16.png


Looks like models are trying to focus in on that heavy band setting up between Abilene and Fort Worth. Someone out there could get lucky tomorrow.

Although, 1-3 inches for a large portion of North Texas is nothing to sneeze it.

Edit: Didn't I say just yesterday I wasn't going to do this again? :x
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6616 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:51 am

TarrantWx wrote:
SouthernMet wrote:CMC gives north texas significant accumulations tomorrow.


:eek: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_16.png


Nooooo I have to go back to work tomorrow! :roll: :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6617 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:55 am

Portastorm wrote:
I'd gladly take 0.5" of snow tomorrow. Beggars can't be choosers. :wink:

But I'm expecting nothing that way I won't be disappointed.


12Z GFS has air over Austin sub-freezing through Friday morning, but with very little moisture. It has increasing moisture by 21Z (3pm) but the warm nose re-develops as the precip starts. Surface temps in the mid 30s with a shallow sub-freezing layer around 4000-6000 ft up. Not a profile for snow. The only chance might be right as the precip starts, but more than likely the warming aloft will occur about the same time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6618 Postby SouthernMet » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:58 am

Iorange don't worry every model has 850mb temps favorable for snow and sfc temps won't be an issue as you guys won't hit the freezing mark all day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6619 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 26, 2015 12:05 pm

Brent wrote:
TarrantWx wrote:
SouthernMet wrote:CMC gives north texas significant accumulations tomorrow.


:eek: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_16.png


Nooooo I have to go back to work tomorrow! :roll: :roll:


I won't to believe this map, I really do, but snow maps have not been kind to us. :crying: Now if it were forecasting sleet it would probably be right. :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6620 Postby iorange55 » Thu Feb 26, 2015 12:06 pm

SouthernMet wrote:Iorange don't worry every model has 850mb temps favorable for snow and sfc temps won't be an issue as you guys won't hit the freezing mark all day.


Yeah, wxman's nose doesn't look like it's going to be a factor tomorrow. Just wonder how much precip will break out. I hope everyone sees at least a few flakes falling. It's disappointing when people on this board get left out.
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