Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Steve]

FV3 is also running. I like that more than NAMs or HRRR during hurricane season.

[IcyTundra]

There will be a lot of unhappy people if these south trends continue.

[Tireman4]

The low in the gulf keeps getting suppressed further south due to the colder/drier air surging in from the north. Snowing out in the gulf. Talk about rare. 0z run compared to 18z run HRRR.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/gulf/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737331200/1737478800-gfVtmOdG128.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/gulf/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737309600/1737478800-BEVqQrm9g60.png

I am just an amateur and a student, but if I am HGX I would not touch the forecast until at least three runs showing the southland trend. That is me.

[txtwister78]

The low in the gulf keeps getting suppressed further south due to the colder/drier air surging in from the north. Snowing out in the gulf. Talk about rare. 0z run compared to 18z run HRRR.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/gulf/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737331200/1737478800-gfVtmOdG128.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/gulf/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737309600/1737478800-BEVqQrm9g60.png

I am just an amateur and a student, but if I am HGX I would not touch the forecast until at least three runs showing the southland trend. That is me.

Oh, I'm not saying they're going to, but the HRRR is one of the better skill/short range guidance models they use, but let's see what the other incoming models show to compare.

[rwfromkansas]

Eric Graves is mentioning the shift on FB and says it’s one of the biggest changes he has seen.

I hope for Houston folks the trends stop.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That HRRR 0z sounding is basically ALL snow from the beginning of the event. I clicked on Sugar Land and there is no warm nose at all.

[IcyTundra]

I am in Galveston County so the south trend isn't necessarily bad for me but I am hoping the rest of the Houston metro won't miss out.

[txtwister78]

This is absolutely wild. Well NAM is definitely not going to help. It's actually worse for SE TX.

[iorange55]

I do not approve of the recent talk in this thread.

[Steve]

12pm Tuesday FV3. It’s part of the future so we can see how it performs. At least 2” + for the bulk of the Houston metro. More plots to come

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... p&m=hrwfv3

[TexasF6]

18Z ICON holding firm, 12z Canadian as well. Let the storm come.

[IcyTundra]

This is absolutely wild. Well NAM is definitely not going to help. It's actually worse for SE TX.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/total_snow_10to1/1737331200/1737475200-nojUPIpbH68.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/sleet_total/1737331200/1737475200-NoBmD238YS0.png

NAM has been the model showing the lowest QPF for this event. I have a hard time believing there would be that big of a bust but it is certainly possible.

[Stratton23]

Im 100% convinced that the NAM/ HRRR models only exist to absolutely rip the souls out of snow lovers, no other purpose than that lol

[IcyTundra]

My two cents is that models are only useful to a point especially when it comes to forecasting snow in SETX. Going to be a lot of nowcasting beginning tomorrow night.

[Brent]

I've been worried about a warm nose all along... Very hard to get a Gulf winter storm without it

But maybe it's wrong too who knows. I mean if it's gonna not exist this would be the storm

[Stratton23]

00z WRF NSSL has a much larger precipitation shield , much more widespread snow over se texas, definitely not suppressed either
WRF ARW 00z has more widespread precipitation as well, not really suppressed

[IcyTundra]

I've been worried about a warm nose all along... Very hard to get a Gulf winter storm without it

But maybe it's wrong too who knows. I mean if it's gonna not exist this would be the storm

Lack of moisture might be a bigger issue especially for folks North of I-10.

[Brent]

I've been worried about a warm nose all along... Very hard to get a Gulf winter storm without it

But maybe it's wrong too who knows. I mean if it's gonna not exist this would be the storm

Lack of moisture might be a bigger issue especially for folks North of I-10.

Yeah this whole storm has really fallen apart from what the models showed a few days ago. It was gonna be way more inland

[rw1984]

I've been worried about a warm nose all along... Very hard to get a Gulf winter storm without it

But maybe it's wrong too who knows. I mean if it's gonna not exist this would be the storm

What model is this in reference to? I haven’t seen anyone really mention a warm nose recently.


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[Brent]

I've been worried about a warm nose all along... Very hard to get a Gulf winter storm without it

But maybe it's wrong too who knows. I mean if it's gonna not exist this would be the storm

What model is this in reference to? I haven’t seen anyone really mention a warm nose recently.


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The maps above showing sleet and freezing rain latest HRRR and NAM