Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

Rarely are these "easy" down here to forecast/track. It's typically a nowcast watch party with winter weather events along with an occasional surprise somewhere that models didn't see. Fun to track but ready for it to be here now.

[txtwister78]

Just about ready to sign off and noticed the NWS office in Houston cut back on snow totals in their latest update. Interesting

[TomballEd]

Just about ready to sign off and noticed the NWS office in Houston cut back on snow totals in their latest update. Interesting

The meso models don't support enough liquid equivalent for a big snow. NWS looks like less than 2 inches combined snow and sleet now IMBY, which makes sense. Too late to uncancel school at this point, and even just a couple of tenths of liquid equivalent sleet, snow and ice early morning Tuesday would make it unsafe for buses. Wednesday will likely be a bare ground bonus day off school. I'll take it.

[Stratton23]

We will see more than that, not concerned about it

[pwrdog]

Gulf low moves just a step more north or south and everything changes... being 25 to 30 miles makes a huge difference... so 30 hours out is just 1 mile per hour...

[IcyTundra]

NWS seems to be valuing the NAM more at the moment. I don’t think anybody actually knows what is going to happen at this point,

[TomballEd]

To think I am disappointed at *only* an inch or two of show. As good as any winter storm in 20 years.

[IcyTundra]

To think I am disappointed at *only* an inch or two of show. As good as any winter storm in 20 years.

True it’s just that a lot of people had high sky expectations after crazy model runs over the last few days. Still a high degree of uncertainty but I think that most areas will still come away with at least a inch of a snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

Watch that northern stream tomorrow and tomorrow night. If it's amped up, there could be widespread snow showers across OK, AR and N TX. Many get only flurries but there will be a coating to an isolated couple inches in spots. Canadian was best with last night's system which dropped some accumulating snow in OK and AR. This is why I still forecast potential for accumulating snow along and north of I20. Closer to I20 has the advantage of some moisture from the Gulf also.

[TropicalTundra]

Watch that northern stream tomorrow and tomorrow night. If it's amped up, there could be widespread snow showers across OK, AR and N TX. Many get only flurries but there will be a coating to an isolated couple inches in spots. Canadian was best with last night's system which dropped some accumulating snow in OK and AR. This is why I still forecast potential for accumulating snow along and north of I20. Closer to I20 has the advantage of some moisture from the Gulf also.

It’s already developing up there. Looking at the NWS radar

[Ralph's Weather]

Watch that northern stream tomorrow and tomorrow night. If it's amped up, there could be widespread snow showers across OK, AR and N TX. Many get only flurries but there will be a coating to an isolated couple inches in spots. Canadian was best with last night's system which dropped some accumulating snow in OK and AR. This is why I still forecast potential for accumulating snow along and north of I20. Closer to I20 has the advantage of some moisture from the Gulf also.

It’s already developing up there. Looking at the NWS radar

A lot of low level dry air to deal with but there will be good lift in mif levels so heavier showers could produce high ratio snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

Widespread mid teens tonight and won't be surprised if some single digits along Red River.

[Ralph's Weather]

FWD had issued WWA for the southern counties. Snow up to 1.5" per the advisory.

[Stratton23]

06z HRRR a touch back to the north , seems its stopped its south trend

[fendie]

06z HRRR a touch back to the north , seems its stopped its south trend

[wxman57]

Snow axis appears to be shifting south, similar to 2004. Axis runs from just north of Galveston to Beaumont and Lake Charles then east to New Orleans. HRRR doesn't indicate any snow in Austin or San Antonio. Not much north of Huntsville, TX, either. HRRR has 3-5" in south Houston and 6" in Galveston. EC, NAM, and GFS agree on the south shift in the axis.

[kassi]

Snow axis appears to be shifting south, similar to 2004. Axis runs from just north of Galveston to Beaumont and Lake Charles then east to New Orleans. HRRR doesn't indicate any snow in Austin or San Antonio. Not much north of Huntsville, TX, either. HRRR has 3-5" in south Houston and 6" in Galveston. EC, NAM, and GFS agree on the south shift in the axis.

Thanks for the update. How much does the HRRR show for the Beaumont area?

[wxman57]

Snow axis appears to be shifting south, similar to 2004. Axis runs from just north of Galveston to Beaumont and Lake Charles then east to New Orleans. HRRR doesn't indicate any snow in Austin or San Antonio. Not much north of Huntsville, TX, either. HRRR has 3-5" in south Houston and 6" in Galveston. EC, NAM, and GFS agree on the south shift in the axis.

Thanks for the update. How much does the HRRR show for the Beaumont area?

It has 5" in Beaumont (city) and 8-10" on the coast along the snow axis. This may turn out very much like Christmas Eve 2004, where the heaviest snow was right at the coast with decreasing amounts inland. This south shift reflects a southward shift in the low axis overnight.

[bbowman7]

So is Lufkin/Diboll are not going to get anything at all now?

[wxman57]

So is Lufkin/Diboll are not going to get anything at all now?

Nothing on the HRRR model, just a trace with the Euro. It's all to your south.