Texas Winter 2013-2014

[paulb]

I definitely want to be more active in the forum and especially in the spring, maybe we can get more people on here during severe season as well. This is one of the best places to come to when looking for information on winter storms.

I hope the snow helps us out with our drought situation out here with Lake Bridgeport being 20+ feet down. Unlike a lot of the lakes in the DFW area all we have to replenish Lake Bridgeport is precipitation, so any and all precip is appreciated. Looks like we'll have a shot at some of the white stuff tomorrow, although I'm not sure how much there will be out here.

do y'all not check the nws forecasts? they are calling for 1-3" atleast, on top of .20 of ice for your area.

someone earlier was worried about "light drizzle" for denton & I see people wondering if wf falls will get "anything".. this is what I meant by people being caught off guard.. not trying to be hostile just being thorough

Yes, just seen that 1-3" turn into a lot more before lol. I have a feeling that it's going to be more than that actually. How much more, who knows? I just hope its not around for 10 days like the ice was in December lol

[SouthernMet]

hmm.. hrrr a little less (noticeably) cold/wet for dfw.. could be closer to reality? shifts more significant precip shield north. (southern ok under the gun)

still shows a moderate-heavy band right on top of dfw at the end of run with impressive but not too extreme (like earlier) hourly totals. as some pointed out this may not fall as snow initially, depending on your location, could be very heavy sleet ending as light snow.

edit : latest has plenty of qpf but slower transition for i-35 corridor, close call. sfc temps going to be close, & remember the warm nose will play a key role..

[SouthernMet]

and here we go... nws norman now officially calling for 6-10" from Crowell-Wichita Falls-Lawton with isolated locally 12" accumulations.

[SnowintheFalls]

and here we go... nws norman now officially calling for 6-10" from Crowell-Wichita Falls-Lawton with isolated locally 12" accumulations.

Interesting... that would be great if that panned out for Wichita! I can see on the radar that it is marching closer to our area.

[Ntxw]

Euro doesn't look to change too much 1-2 inches of stuff for the metroplex and even expands a little more to the south. Bit more to the west, big diff is out west to sw of the falls it now sees the snow dump like NAM and HRRR. Ever changing system right till the hour it hits.

Edit: It has a weird anomaly where it thinks heavy precip breaks out over Dallas county and moves NE giving eastplexers slightly higher qpf than westplexers. Any way you put it the model has it all eastplexers, westplexers, northplexers, southplexers whatever plexer you are, you want snow you got snow (or sleet, or frz rain, or a combination of all 3).

[iorange55]

We'll see what happens! 38 degrees here and dropping. It's time to get some sleep before all of the snow falls.

[Ntxw]

And so it begins...should be an interesting night from kmaf (I know we have some posters there) to Childress.

[Ntxw]

Interesting snippet out of Midland earlier

***
DISCUSSION...
We have updated the forecast to extend south and westward the
Winter Weather Advisory that was issued earlier. There is quite a
difficult weather scenario unfolding for tonight into Sunday as
models having trouble with precipitation developing behind a
strong cold front moving through the area. Models are in good
agreement with an upper trough moving across west Texas Sunday
bringing wintry precip, but the main concern is where and what
p-type will it be. Lightning strikes are being observed in
northern Mexico so despite this being an open upper trough, it is
potent.

[weatherguy425]

Interesting snippet out of Midland earlier

***
DISCUSSION...
We have updated the forecast to extend south and westward the
Winter Weather Advisory that was issued earlier. There is quite a
difficult weather scenario unfolding for tonight into Sunday as
models having trouble with precipitation developing behind a
strong cold front moving through the area. Models are in good
agreement with an upper trough moving across west Texas Sunday
bringing wintry precip, but the main concern is where and what
p-type will it be. Lightning strikes are being observed in
northern Mexico so despite this being an open upper trough, it is
potent.

And, actually quite a bit of cloud-to-cloud lightning data between LBB & MAF - via @NWSLubbock LMA data.

[Ntxw]

And, actually quite a bit of cloud-to-cloud lightning data between LBB & MAF - via @NWSLubbock LMA data.

[/quote]

I saw that on radar, I thought it was just some kind of reflectivity issue

[weatherguy425]

And, actually quite a bit of cloud-to-cloud lightning data between LBB & MAF - via @NWSLubbock LMA data.

I saw that on radar, I thought it was just some kind of reflectivity issue [/quote]


Can't speak for the intense convection closer to Midland, but the activity from Tahoka to Post, Texas, does contain lightning.

[Ntxw]

Can't speak for the intense convection closer to Midland, but the activity from Tahoka to Post, Texas, does contain lightning.

That is very impressive in cold air, surely someone will be hearing thundersnow/thundersleet with this event and probably quite a few. Keep your eye out there in Lubbock the MAF stuff is moving northward.

[weatherguy425]

Can't speak for the intense convection closer to Midland, but the activity from Tahoka to Post, Texas, does contain lightning.

That is very impressive in cold air, surely someone will be hearing thundersnow/thundersleet with this event and probably quite a few. Keep your eye out there in Lubbock the MAF stuff is moving northward.

My eyes are on the developing band from near Hobbs, NM to Childress,TX. Just now trying to pin-wheel into Lubbock. Moderate sleet at my location but accumulating snow further north and west.

[Ntxw]

Looks exciting, kudos to the HRRR for seeing this explosive convection. Nothing like a storm coming out negatively tilted.

[TheProfessor]

Can't speak for the intense convection closer to Midland, but the activity from Tahoka to Post, Texas, does contain lightning.

That is very impressive in cold air, surely someone will be hearing thundersnow/thundersleet with this event and probably quite a few. Keep your eye out there in Lubbock the MAF stuff is moving northward.

There is a part of the storm near Odessa that is showing a chance of hail.

[TheProfessor]

Looking at the radar and how slow the storms are moving, if this makes it to the metroplex when temperatures hit freezing, there could be some big issues tomorrow.

Edit: it is now 35 degrees here according to weather bug and 37 ( at alliance airport) degrees according to NWS FWD. Only 5 more degrees to go!

[Ntxw]

Should be snowing in LBB, any confirmation weatherguy425?

[Ntxw]

Before I go for the night, I know some people were thinking nothing or not much was going to happen in the metroplex especially other side. But the trend tonight has been that now all models are showing sleet and freezing rain for just about everybody so even if it's not snow it could still be a problem for much of the area. Even the adamant GFS has sleet.

[weatherguy425]

Should be snowing in LBB, any confirmation weatherguy425?

Still mostly sleet. Few flakes from time to time.

[katheria]

yep gonna head that way myself...looks like a little rain headed into dallas already.... impressed by what i see on radar to south west but wait and see tomorrow

got my milk today LOL just in case