Texas Winter 2024-2025

[South Texas Storms]

Comsidering the HRRR is already off on temperatures, im not giving much weight to that model

Temps won't be the issue. It will be the position of the low in the gulf and how quickly that moves away from the coast and as a result pulls moisture/QPF away further inland.

I think the HRRR is lower on snowfall amounts due to it showing several hours of freezing rain this evening into early tomorrow morning across southeast TX. That seems unlikely in my opinion, as I think most areas north of IH-10 should be mostly snow by midnight.

[MississippiWx]

https://i.ibb.co/zNZT17F/Ghwe-XZOWAAATMz-N.png

This was NWS Houston's snowfall forecast at 12 PM CT today. Bust potential is there for sure but they are sticking to their guns for now.

This gets updated every hour so doesn't necessarily reflect current model runs like latest RAP and HRRR. I think NWS is putting more weight obviously in some of the WRF members but as we get closer and the hourly HRRR/RAP refuses to budge or worse continues to trend south, the bust potential rises quickly in my opinion.

The thing that makes me question the HRRR is it has underestimated dew points by as much as 10 degrees in Texas already. It’s having to correct higher every run.

[Stratton23]

Im just saying a model is gonna wromg just for delusional hope purposes, id be absolutely crushed if we end up not getting anything lol

[orangeblood]

For what it's worth, the HRRR and RAP didn't figure out the warm nose with the North Texas event 10 days ago until about 12 hours out. 12 hours plus out, it wasn't very good with snow/ice/rain depictions - great with QPF amounts though

[txtwister78]

This the latest run of the RAP at 19z for total QPF. Lol Continues to get worse every run.

[Gotwood]

Im just saying a model is gonna wromg just for delusional hope purposes, id be absolutely crushed if we end up not getting anything lol

I’m still not over my bust. If I don’t get anything by 2nd week of Feb I’ve decided to go to Colorado.

[Snowman67]

Houston we have a problem. Jim Cantore is in Houston.

Yeah, we're safe now. He should go to Galveston or New Orleans for heavier snow

So are you calling for the “all clear” signal for Northern Harris county?

[Ralph's Weather]

For what it's worth, the HRRR and RAP didn't figure out the warm nose with the North Texas event 10 days ago until about 12 hours out. 12 hours plus out, it wasn't very good with snow/ice/rain depictions - great with QPF amounts though

HRRR and RAP had me getting 3-6" of snow last Thu night. I got 0. They are a good tool, but just that like any other model. At this point you have to take all data including now casting into account. And as the event nears now casting becomes more vital.

[TomballEd]

With the storm total liquid equivalent between a tenth and two tenths across most of the Houston area way from the immediate coast, snow won't be that heavy, no matter how cold. Again, being disappointed at 2 inches of snow in Houston speaks only to what this looked like a couple of days ago.

This is something like 2004 in that heaviest snowfall will be along the immediate coast. Temps do matter more along the coast, perhaps even as far as Matagorda, as there is enough QPF to make some snow. Not locking in on HRRR but NAM not that much more precip.

[txtwister78]

For what it's worth, the HRRR and RAP didn't figure out the warm nose with the North Texas event 10 days ago until about 12 hours out. 12 hours plus out, it wasn't very good with snow/ice/rain depictions - great with QPF amounts though

HRRR and RAP had me getting 3-6" of snow last Thu night. I got 0. They are a good tool, but just that like any other model. At this point you have to take all data including now casting into account. And as the event nears now casting becomes more vital.

Not every event is similar so it's hard to point to what happened last week for you and say that's going to be a given for this one when both setups are a bit different. The HRRR was off with temp profiles in the afternoon, but it wasn't off with the axis of heaviest precipitation. Same goes for the RAP overall. Last week was all about how cold would the mid/upper levels be.

Here it's about finding moisture/QPF. The coastal low continues to get suppressed by these two models and so that's the real issue.

[Stratton23]

already think their is more moisture further north than what the hrrr and NAM have depicted, 36 degrees here and getting some light misty rain, that wasn’t forecasted, im optimistic that we will all wake up to a few inches of snow on the ground by tommorow morning

[rw1984]

19z HRRR only goes out 18 hours on mine, but it pretty much drops the freezing rain for SETX and showing more snow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[IcyTundra]

I was supposed to get up to 42 today only at 37 right now. Winter precip could start earlier than forecasted imo.

[txtwister78]

19z HRRR only goes out 18 hours on mine, but it pretty much drops the freezing rain for SETX and showing more snow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Unfortunately, it doesn't "drop freezing rain for SETX". It actually dropped snow totals again from the prior 18z run at 13z range (18 hours out).

[Ralph's Weather]

Some good nowcast trends to hang out hats on. I will speak to my location of Tyler up along I20.
The 700mb moistened up 4-6 hours faster than modeled to as of this morning. This is capping surface warming here in the mid 30s.
The 18Z Norman sounding looks more moist than models indicated it would be.
I will feel better once I start to see snow reports south of I40 though. Until then I won't get too excited. Though the better Gulf moisture may indicate that we can watch for snow from the south also.

[Fifty Rock]

Is Lucy going to pull the football again and leave Charlie Brown crumpled on the ground? Mother Nature loves to play with your emotions…. Will she have the last laugh after a promising top 5 snow event down South.

[jasons2k]

Some good nowcast trends to hang out hats on. I will speak to my location of Tyler up along I20.
The 700mb moistened up 4-6 hours faster than modeled to as of this morning. This is capping surface warming here in the mid 30s.
The 18Z Norman sounding looks more moist than models indicated it would be.
I will feel better once I start to see snow reports south of I40 though. Until then I won't get too excited. Though the better Gulf moisture may indicate that we can watch for snow from the south also.

It's getting into that window when sounding data and realtime obs matters more than any of the models.

[Stratton23]

NWS upped totals 2-4 inches for me , definitely more moisture on the radar than what mesoscale runs have shown

[Charleswachal]

I am confused. High res models are showing less and less but yet local Mets are calling for an earlier and longer duration of snow.

[txtwister78]

Wow...that's not something you see in Texas much, even for the panhandle.

 https://x.com/NWSAmarillo/status/1881443376463282320