Pacific Northwest Weather

[AnthonyC]

Man, I pray this February and March does not turn into last February and March. There was NO winter after the widespread lowland snow event in the beginning of January. There wasn't one pineapple express, one bout of arctic air, one windstorm, etc. A ridge dominated the west from mid January through the beginning of March. That would suck if it happened again this winter.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

18z GFS looking better for cold air, its coming guys!!! May not look like much now, but I think everyone will like what Feb brings!!

[R-Dub]

WOW Auburn hit 69 degrees today!!! Is it January 21st, or June 21st??????

We are down to a frigid 57 degrees BURRRRRRR!!!!

Look at the pass cams........SAD!!! Looks like Snoqualmie still has a little snow, but Stevens is just about gone

[W13]

WOW Auburn hit 69 degrees today!!! Is it January 21st, or June 21st??????

We are down to a frigid 57 degrees BURRRRRRR!!!!

Look at the pass cams........SAD!!! Looks like Snoqualmie still has a little snow, but Stevens is just about gone

We hit 66 F (now down to a chilly 60 F). It really did feel like fall today. The air smelled clean and refreshing, and everything looked so nice. It was a great day and it looks like tommorow will be no different.

[TT-SEA]

65 degrees here. B-E-A-U-T-I-F-U-L DAY

Man... I am not seeing cold weather on the 18z run of the GFS.

I see colder weather (lower snow levels)... but not cold and not even close to arctic.

And then it ends the run with a huge ridge parked on top of us.

February is going to be pretty normal to slightly above normal when all is said and done.

[Brian_from_bellingham]

A big ridge is not a bad thing though if you want cold weather. Zonal flow is the worst. At least if there is a big high, it can retrograde, though of course they usually progress instead of retrogress, but at least there would be a chance.

RDub, any word from that lady at King5?

[andycottle]

Randy...I just now took a good look at the 18z GFS, and while it`s looks like it may turn a tad cooler Feb. 2nd - 4th or so, upper level heights and temps barely seem low enough/ cold enough to even have a major cold spell for early next month. And I don`t want to burst you excitment, but think you are jumping the gun a wee bit early, as models are always subject to change. Though I will say that I would definally like to see more snow...and LOTS of it! -- Andy

[R-Dub]

My take is the models are slowly coming around to a colder solution, were the models right when they predicted 1950 conditions a few weeks back? Nope! This time I have a feeling they are going to be off again, but this time for our favor!!

[andycottle]

I reached 62 for a high temp, after a morning low of 51. Hmmmm....this weather definally is feeling SPRING like!:). Right now at 3:43pm we have overcast skies, but also with a few breaks in the clouds to allow sun to peak through. Current temp is 60 degrees with 87% humidity and DP 57.
-- Andy

[R-Dub]

Brian, I'll try Linda from King 5 again right now, yesterday I just got voice mail.

[AnthonyC]

Just talked to my aunt who lives in Brooklyn, New York and people are going nuts over there. I guess they're under a Blizzard Warning from Saturday till Sunday. Local meteorologists are calling for anywhere between 12-20 inches of snow. That kind of talk puts me in the snow spirit once again...I feel like we got jipped with the last event, I want MORE!! lol. Still shaping up to be a wet weekend/Monday. The latest NWS discussion is the SAME discussion from 3:00 am, but there's still flood watches on many local rivers. Looking at satelitte images, another pineapple express is taking shape, although the baroclinic band is a little further north than was the case Monday/Tuesday of this past week. The north interior should get the brunt of this pineapple express...although EVERYONE will get a good dose of rain once the entire cold front moves through. Expect a zonal flow to develop once that cold front passes, but temperatures don't cool too much...afternoon highs around 50, overnight lows around 40. You can expect a snow level around 4500 feet with those temperatures...above Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes. My friend went snowboarding today and I was very tempted to skip school and join, but he said it was miserable up at Summit West. The base was about 13 inches and there was NO snow at the parking lots. And NO ONE was there...maybe about 50 people the entire day. Temperature was around 50 F the entire day. That's plain sad. I guess we can hope for spring skiing...but we need snow quick to build up the base.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Wizzard... help me out here.

I read an article from the San Diego Union Tribune comparing this winter season to 1889-90. That year Southern California had tons of rain in October and in December / early January without a strong El Nino.

Here is an excerpt...

Bill Patzert, a forecaster at the Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena, sees a parallel between this year and 1889-90. That was a big rain year that was also not due to an El Nino. That year, it had rained nearly 13 inches by the end of January (this year, we're at 13.37), but the season concluded with only 15.02 inches. That year, 1.7 inches fell in February, and the rest of the season was far below normal. The year after that, 1890-91, was about normal, with 10.47 inches recorded in San Diego.
But other years that started out as wet as this one just kept on soaking the city. In 1883-84, San Diego was slightly above normal after January, and more than 20 inches fell between Feb. 1 and June 30. That was San Diego's wettest year on record: 25.97 inches. The difference between 1883-84 and 1889-90, though, was that '83-84 was a very strong El Nino year. The same pattern existed in San Diego's second wettest year, 1940-41, with more than 16 inches falling after Feb. 1. That year, also an El Nino year, finished with 24.74 inches. The 1883-84 and 1940-41 years are the only years that finished above 20 inches in San Diego history



Do you have records for Seattle for 1889 and 1890 (and even 1891)?

I am most interested in monthly rainfall and snowfall totals.

[snow_wizzard]

That is interesting! That was a very cold and snowy winter here. The records for Port Blakely...just across the sound from Seattle say we had 62.8 inches of snow for the winter. I will have to dig up the water equivalent/rainfall records. The next winter had a cold and snowy Feb. Then a couple of winters later, 1892-93 had a whopping 58.0 inches of snow in Seattle, with brutal cold. If this truly is like 1889-90 we will get cold again. That was an extremely variable winter, like this one. I think we came closer than any of us realize to getting clobbered the first half of this month. We can only hope we have entered an 1890s type regime. That was a GREAT decade!

As for the the next couple of weeks.. For some reason the operational GFS runs and the ensemble mean are in terrible agreement on where the ridge will be. The ensemble mean continues to insist the ridge will be between 140 - 150 and the operational 125 - 135. The good news is, the ensemble is usually much better at placing the main feautres than the operational model.

[TT-SEA]

The down side to 1889-90 was that it got very dry after February.

It was a terribly dry summer that year (1890) and it did not rain much at all until October and then November was bone dry.

[AnthonyC]

I find it very hard to believe such an amplified ridge could develop so close to the coast of Washington...especially in the winter. I will trust the operational GFS model for now, which places the ridge at 140W...which still isn't conduscive for true, arctic air but it brings below normal temperatures. Latest GFS models amplify that ridge at 125W which is right along the coast...just doesn't happen during the winter. It's almost impossible.

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

Andy...here is the link to download the Bothell records. I don't know of any way to view the complete records for free. If you go to the Seattle Library you could look at the books with all of the records.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/stationlocator.html


Brian...The guy I know at NOAA thinks we have either entered or are about to enter a minus phase of the PDO. That is why he thinks we should see colder weather any time now. It is somewhat amazing that all of the La Nina winters and negative PNA values we have seen, have not beared any fruit yet. He and other experts believe that next winter may be one to write home about across much of the nation. That is because we should have a weak La Nina, negative QBO, mostly negative AO, and other favorable factors. I continue to believe that we simply need to "break the ice" on getting some cold weather in here, and we should be fine. It has been difficult breaking out of the insane mildness of the past 25 years.

[TT-SEA]

Anthony... a ridge along the coast can occur any time in winter.

Thats when we get into a foggy scenario. Quite common in fact.

[R-Dub]

TT and W13 you have a PM

[snow_wizzard]

I am of the opinion the GFS is going to be of no help to us for a while. Right now every run looks completely different than the ones before it. The latest 0z is much less amplified (at least at day 9). Besides that the operational model and the ensemble are in terrible agreement on where to place the offshore ridge. At this point I am going to trust climatology over the models and continue to predict a coming cold spell. Historically speaking, that is very likely after the pattern we have observed this week. I heard many people comment today...this weather is almost spooky and is probably going to get even with us at some point. Just the opinions of some average folks.

[W13]

TT and W13 you have a PM

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