Texas Winter 2017-2018
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
FWIW 12z EPS end of the run period to begin Feb is ridge off the west coast and east coast with mean trough From N-Central Canada down to Northern Mexico
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Ntxw wrote:FWIW 12z EPS end of the run period to begin Feb is ridge off the west coast and east coast with mean trough From N-Central Canada down to Northern Mexico
Ntxw, isn't that a stormier pattern if it sets up? I've hear about the potential stratosphere warming also developing.
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- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Ntxw wrote:Interestingly our two warmest days (tomorrow and Sunday) will be accompanied by mostly cloudy and slight rain chances. That's been the call this winter, warm days have been overcast and dreary while some cold days are sunny.
The way it should be in Winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
hamburgerman7070 wrote:Ntxw wrote:FWIW 12z EPS end of the run period to begin Feb is ridge off the west coast and east coast with mean trough From N-Central Canada down to Northern Mexico
Ntxw, isn't that a stormier pattern if it sets up? I've hear about the potential stratosphere warming also developing.
It's beneficial yes. You just need the arctic HP to come down and connect with the Pacific ridge. It's done that a few times this winter. Stormier? I'm not sure but colder. Strat warming looked better some days ago but no split forecasted at this time.
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Can you include Corpus and the RGV in that work order.
It was hard enough to get you some winter weather once down there. Don't be greedy.
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- whitewolf124
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I just want one more snow event in San Antonio, the last snow event I was in New York and missed it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
18z GFS is a mess. Alternating from snow grazing OKC to snow all the way down to Monterrey.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
whitewolf124 wrote:I just want one more snow event in San Antonio, the last snow event I was in New York and missed it.
I'm going to NYC next month I'm sure it will snow in Dallas then
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Quixotic wrote:18z GFS is a mess. Alternating from snow grazing OKC to snow all the way down to Monterrey.
Just meet in the middle. Austin gets a blizzard.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
gpsnowman wrote:Quixotic wrote:18z GFS is a mess. Alternating from snow grazing OKC to snow all the way down to Monterrey.
Just meet in the middle. Austin gets a blizzard.
Y’all gotta throw a little love North Texas’ way!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Quixotic wrote:gpsnowman wrote:Quixotic wrote:18z GFS is a mess. Alternating from snow grazing OKC to snow all the way down to Monterrey.
Just meet in the middle. Austin gets a blizzard.
Y’all gotta throw a little love North Texas’ way!
I certainly agree. I live just a few miles from DFW airport in Irving. Definitely want the storm to nail Dallas. OKC and Monterrey are worlds apart so Austin might be in the crosshairs in future runs. Maybe meet in the middle this far out, but never in the bullseye this early.
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:whitewolf124 wrote:I just want one more snow event in San Antonio, the last snow event I was in New York and missed it.
I'm going to NYC next month I'm sure it will snow in Dallas then
Idk about that. I don't think even the unluckiest winter lover(whoever they are) could prevent an EC storm with how well they've been doing the past few years.
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
My beautiful snowpack! It's melting!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
TheProfessor wrote:Brent wrote:whitewolf124 wrote:I just want one more snow event in San Antonio, the last snow event I was in New York and missed it.
I'm going to NYC next month I'm sure it will snow in Dallas then
Idk about that. I don't think even the unluckiest winter lover(whoever they are) could prevent an EC storm with how well they've been doing the past few years.
Lol we'll see I'm hoping to see real snow in NYC after Chicago could only muster up a patchy dusting. Certainly NYC has bigger potential but it could just as easily be warm and no snow
Luck has not been on my side that's for sure
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- whitewolf124
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:whitewolf124 wrote:I just want one more snow event in San Antonio, the last snow event I was in New York and missed it.
I'm going to NYC next month I'm sure it will snow in Dallas then
I bet if you do it will snow in Dallas lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Joe Bastardi this morning has several positive tweets regarding the second half of winter. Basically says look out for February and March with just as cold if not colder weather than what we have seen already.
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
gpsnowman wrote:Joe Bastardi this morning has several positive tweets regarding the second half of winter. Basically says look out for February and March with just as cold if not colder weather than what we have seen already.
I saw those as well, snowman. I am wondering if he still believes the heart of the coldest air will be further west this time than the period we just went through. He mentioned something like that a week or two ago. Would obviously bode well for us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Portastorm wrote:gpsnowman wrote:Joe Bastardi this morning has several positive tweets regarding the second half of winter. Basically says look out for February and March with just as cold if not colder weather than what we have seen already.
I saw those as well, snowman. I am wondering if he still believes the heart of the coldest air will be further west this time than the period we just went through. He mentioned something like that a week or two ago. Would obviously bode well for us.
I think I saw that also. He is east coast intensive but he does tweet about Texas weather from time to time. He has a Texas connection if I remember correctly. He does mention the next two weeks will be the west's turn for winter before shifting east. One good thing about Texas centrally located position is we can get in on the action regardless of whether the cold is in the east or west.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
bubba hotep wrote:Phase 6/7/8 are all supportive of cold in Jan & Feb. Models have it going into 6 but will it continue to roll?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... m_full.gif
Image above was hot linked, so it keeps updating, but it was only going out to P6 when posted. It has indeed continued to roll and now the models are showing it moving towards P8. Cold times ahead
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
bubba hotep wrote:Image above was hot linked, so it keeps updating, but it was only going out to P6 when posted. It has indeed continued to roll and now the models are showing it moving towards P8. Cold times ahead
This is very important and the 1978 analog (MJO wise) is still key! Obviously we are not seeing that kind of record persistent cold but it's working out nicely with tropical forcing (wetter that year thanks to El Nino). Feb 1978 went through P6-8 and had arguably the snowiest period on record! It is basically a mirror image MJO movement
The coldest temperature that year occurred in mid February for DFW. I suspect the same will happen this year
DFW Feb snowfall
Code: Select all
Snowiest
Rank Snowfall Year
1 13.5 1978
2 12.6 2010
3 7.5 1924
4 4.2 1951
5 4.0 2011
6 3.7 1975
7 3.6 1929
8 3.5 2002
9 3.1 1938
10 3.0 1903
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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