Texas Winter 2013-2014

[SouthernMet]

Well I was forecasted for 2 inches of sleet and only received .1 of an inch, so thats what I meant.

in the nws defense, they said "UP to 2inches possible" big difference

[Ntxw]

I just saw at least five snow flurries. I believe this was my birthday present from Mother Nature. She's apparently not able to afford much this winter, but it's okay. At least she gave me one of those fancy singing cards.

EDIT: There is actually an extremely light snow flurry/shower coming down now.

Well happy birthday there!

I'm sure she could afford it, she just dumped half a foot of snow up the street. She's probably just not giving us because we've been naughty and are non believers so it's punishment!

[iorange55]

I just saw at least five snow flurries. I believe this was my birthday present from Mother Nature. She's apparently not able to afford much this winter, but it's okay. At least she gave me one of those fancy singing cards.

EDIT: There is actually an extremely light snow flurry/shower coming down now.

Well happy birthday there!

I'm sure she could afford it, she just dumped half a foot of snow up the street. She's probably just not giving us because we've been naughty and are non believers so it's punishment!

Thank you!

I suppose you're right, but who could blame us after last winter? But seriously, it's obvious that this winter is far from over. I am optimistic about our chances.

[Ntxw]

Thank you!

I suppose you're right, but who could blame us after last winter? But seriously, it's obvious that this winter is far from over. I am optimistic about our chances.

What was wrong with last winter? We had snow on Christmas day (which we probably won't see again in our lifetimes). I'm sure many would be willing to trade a whole season's worth of snowfall for that. Unless you were talking about the rest of the winter which it was ugly. Though DFW had several small snow/ice events. But for Houston and Austin it was ugly.

[iorange55]

Thank you!

I suppose you're right, but who could blame us after last winter? But seriously, it's obvious that this winter is far from over. I am optimistic about our chances.

What was wrong with last winter? We had snow on Christmas day (which we probably won't see again in our lifetimes). I'm sure many would be willing to trade a whole season's worth of snowfall for that. Unless you were talking about the rest of the winter which it was ugly. Though DFW had several small snow/ice events. But for Houston and Austin it was ugly.

That was nice, but it only snowed for about an hour, at least in my area. And then like you said, the rest of winter was just brutal. Honestly, I think I am just spoiled by the winter 09/10 winter, which is a bit silly. That snowstorm was a once in a lifetime type of thing, and now I am hoping it's going to be happen every year!

[Ntxw]

I know how it feels. A foot of snow is rare, it happens once about every 40 years in North Texas. The next one should be in 2050 so got to keep that in mind!

If Anyone is keeping track today is DFW's 40th freeze. 8 more to go for top 10 guaranteed finish. 6 more and it will be the most of the decade passing 09/10. Tomorrow will be 41.

Extrapolating the pattern and forecast I think 50+ freeze season is likely meaning we need 10+ freezes the next 28 days similar to January which would be the most since 1996 (assuming March and April do nothing). If February finishes like back in December with the 15-20 freezes we would pass 1983 and threaten 1977-1978/1963-1964 (62 and 61 respectively). If that happens and we would need a couple of freezes in March and or April to help out which isn't a farfetched idea.

[aggiecutter]

18z GFS brings the snow back to NE Texas.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: I know how it feels. A foot of snow is rare, it happens once about every 40 years in North Texas. The next one should be in 2050 so got to keep that in mind!

If Anyone is keeping track today is DFW's 40th freeze. 8 more to go for top 10 guaranteed finish. 6 more and it will be the most of the decade passing 09/10. Tomorrow will be 41.

Pretty good run of winter up to this point but I think it needs to be pointed out that most all long range teleconnection indices point towards a warm up starting around the 14th of this month. While the WPO might stay negative, the EPO is forecast to sky rocket - if that happens, we'll more than likely see a massive gulf of Alaska low pressure (because of Siberian Air being forced into Northeastern Pacific) sending Pacific air into western North America. But plenty of fun and games until then with the possibility of a big storm to end the cold snap (right around Valentines Day)

Ntxw - I think we might be seeing the evolution of the Northeastern Pacific warm anomalies come to end over the next month or two. I mean it has to happen at some point, right ?


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw - I think we might be seeing the evolution of the Northeastern Pacific warm anomalies come to end over the next month or two. I mean it has to happen at some point, right ?

Yes, there are signs. CFSv2 keeps the warm pool around actually for much of this year in a weakened state though, but I agree the record warmth and block up there must ease at some point and has signs of doing so. The next two weeks is it for the very cold Arctic air masses once it all comes crashing down it will become just typical cold waves that come and go. Late Feb and March are domains of the NAO so we will need that to keep it somewhat chilly because climo naturally says it must go up. I hope El Nino gets going late spring, we desperately need it.

[Ntxw]

But!!! NOAA says spring will be warm, so naturally it will be cold, thank goodness for their diligent work!

[SouthernMet]

Add Bridgeport & Gainesville isds to the list of closings for tomorrow

[orangeblood]

If you think Verkhoyansk, Russia is cold sitting at -72 F currently , well it's experiencing a heat wave compared to this spot - check out what NASA is attempting to create...... http://rt.com/news/iss-coldest-spot-universe-544/

[Ntxw]

Absolute zero schmero ,

Portastorm has been testing some absoluts himself at PWC HQ. Maybe ready for use come winter 2014-2015.



Seriously though good read, cool article orangeblood.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm so tired of the cold. It's useless if it doesn't snow. If we aren't gonna get anymore snow this winter then I'm ready for spring. I really hope it's a stormy one. I love severe storms!

[Ntxw]

I'm so tired of the cold. It's useless if it doesn't snow. If we aren't gonna get anymore snow this winter then I'm ready for spring. I really hope it's a stormy one. I love severe storms!

This year has been so polar opposite of 2011/12. Back then we couldn't even buy cold. I remember people saying if only it just gets a little cold it doesn't even need to snow just to cool off. Now people are sick of it, us Texans.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Misting very very lightly here in Hutto, just north of Austin.

[SouthernMet]

add Sherman, Pilot Point & Decatur isds to the list of schools closed tomorrow.

edit : add Denison & Sanger isds
Poolville, Paradise & Boyd isds will be delayed 2 hours

[Snowman67]

Can someone tell me the steps to post a meteogram? I know how to make them, but I cannot copy them from Excel and paste them onto this message board. What am I doing wrong? Thanks.

[South Texas Storms]

Come on 0z GFS, bring back our late week winter storm and lots of rain chances in the long range!

[ravyrn]

For those saying this was a busted forecast, Steve McCauley disagrees:

I thought it might be interesting to start having a post-storm analysis to see how the forecast matched (or did not match) what was predicted. So here is the ACCOUNTABILITY ANALYSIS of today's winter weather event across Texas. You can find these maps that I posted yesterday by scrolling down this FB page.

The predicted rainfall amounts for the Metroplex were expected to be 0.25" or less. Actual totals today ranged from 0.01" at the Alliance Airport to 0.29" in Denton. The official total at DFW came in at 0.14"

No accumulating snow was predicted for the Metroplex, and none was reported. 1 to 6 inches, however, was reported from Southern half of Oklahoma and along the Red River Counties in Texas, through Wichita Falls to south of Lubbock. Isolated 10 inch amounts were reported just off the caprock, east of Lubbock (missed those bull's-eyes!).

Less than 0.25" of sleet was predicted for the north and western sections of the Metro (Denton, Collin, and Tarrant Counties). Heavy sleet fell for less than an hour west of a line from Denton to Fort Worth with light sleet as far east as McKinney. All accumulations less than 0.25" for the Metroplex.

Less than a tenth of an inch of freezing rain was predicted for the Metroplex. Light freezing rain was reported west of a line from McKinney-Irving-Fort Worth. Thin layer of ice covered cars and tree limbs in western Collin, northern Tarrant, and much of Denton Counties.

So all-in-all, this was not a bad outlook for a run-of-the-mill winter weather event here in north Texas. But it might be pointed out that the level of detail in forecasts like these and like the ones posted by the National Weather Service would not have been possible just a decade ago! Technology and our understanding of atmospheric physics continues to improve substantially. But yes, I will be posting ACCOUNTABILITY ANALYSES even when the forecast busts big time

Our next precip event is Monday night into Tuesday morning. This one, too, will be widespread but less than 0.25" of rain is expected, and no frozen precip is expected anywhere in north Texas with this Monday night/Tuesday morning system.