Texas Winter 2013-2014

[orangeblood]

0z GFS has a 1057mb high rolling down into Montana on Wednesday. Given the current upper pattern, this is a classic recipe for the Arctic/polar air to come straight down the lee side of the Rockies into Texas.

If the GFS is right, the predominant form of precipitation over most of the state later this week will easily be frozen. I'll be curious to see if future GFS runs show similar and how the 0z Euro holds up against it. Got a feeling the late week storm is going to put these smaller events we've had to shame.

If that HP strength comes close to verifying and fresh snowpack across the central plains, GFS is probably still too warm with temps and it currently only has a high of 27 F on Thursday for DFW Has chance to end up as coldest airmass of the season and that's saying something

[Ntxw]

And it already puts us in the fridge for almost a week, if we get above freezing it's not by much once we fall Tuesday night. -Wpo/-Epo signature prolonged cold snap/freeze.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: And it already puts us in the fridge for almost a week, if we get above freezing it's not by much once we fall Tuesday night. -Wpo/-Epo signature prolonged cold snap/freeze.

Do you think that the next 2 weeks is probably the last decent chance of seeing snow here in central TX?
I just want one good snow storm of at least 1 inch before this winter ends. I've put up with the cold for a long time, I think I deserve some snow!

[Ntxw]

Yes ^ after that Pacific is no longer our friend. Plus climo says so anyway, it will take a deep anomalous low beyond that time for snow that far south. Those generally happen in El Nino's.

[orangeblood]

It's pretty rare to have a 10 day stretch as cold as this upcoming one, some 15-20 F below normal for a prolonged period. Hey Heat Miser - is this fine mosaic below worth anything to you ?

[gpsnowman]

Good morning winter lovers. You too wxman57. On to the next round! It will nice to see some rain early this week and then by the end of the week things are looking positive. Time is running out on us so this one has to count. Snow for all!!!

[gpsnowman]

Once again it looks like the cold will be here. Will the moisture???

[SouthernMet]

another good AFD by Cavanaugh this morning.

[DougNTexas]

Southern Met for us that do not know who Cavanaugh is, how about a hint what he is saying?

[SouthernMet]

Southern Met for us that do not know who Cavanaugh is, how about a hint what he is saying?

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...TURNING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MOVING EAST OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO AS OF 09Z. 09Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MOST OF NORTH TEXAS BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW SITES IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. OVERCAST SKIES HAVE PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE ACTUALLY RUNNING 6-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STRATUS BEGAN TO FILL IN AGAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 08Z. THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY WARMER START TO THE DAY STILL HAS US BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IS A BIG DIFFERENCE FROM THE UPPER TEENS THAT MODELS WERE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING YESTERDAY. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE REDEVELOPING STRATUS TONIGHT REVEALED A SHALLOW LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT MORE OR LESS LOCATED ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW THIS LIFT MOST PROMINENTLY ON THE 280K SURFACE. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LIFT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 20 MB OF LIFT THROUGH THE STRATUS BEARING LAYER THIS MORNING. THESE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICIT OF AROUND 10 MB WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT. WITH PROGGED LIFT EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICIT BY A ...SOMETHING SHOULD BE FALLING OUT OF THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...HIGHLIGHTING LOCATIONS FROM THE DFW METROPLEX AND SOUTHWEST AS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE SO LIGHT THAT IT WILL CAUSE LITTLE...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. ANY ICE THAT IS ALREADY ON THE ROADS WILL NOT GO AWAY UNTIL WE CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TODAY OF COURSE. WHAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IS SPOTTY ICING ON THE TOPS OF VEHICLES OR OTHER EXPOSED METAL SURFACES WHEREVER FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS MORNING...BUT AGAIN...ANYTHING FALLING FROM THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD MOVE WEST LATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THE SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT IS A SIGN OF WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A TRANSITION TO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH WILL BEGIN TODAY AND HOLD OVER THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ARE THOSE THAT PICKED UP THE MOST SNOW/SLEET YESTERDAY. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GRAHAM TO GAINESVILLE LINE WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW AND SLEET COVERED AREAS...THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD WARM UP TO 40 DEGREES OR MORE...ALLOWING ANY LIGHT WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS FROM YESTERDAY TO MELT AWAY. TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN INTENSITY TONIGHT AS THE LARGE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN TO FALL WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GRAHAM TO GAINESVILLE LINE. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE WHICH MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY REAL ICE ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS...MENTIONED RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THIS BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. AFTER MIDNIGHT EVEN THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN A COLD RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN GENERAL...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS HIGH...SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO 60 PERCENT OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN ABRUPT END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA AT THAT TIME SENDING A STRONG DRY SLOT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS TO WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL LIKELY REMAIN MUCH COOLER DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHOSE LEADING EDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE NEXT BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR BY A SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS THAT ARE AT LEAST 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK: THE BROAD PATTERN: MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT INDICATING THAT TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL SPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE CANADIAN AIR IS IN PLACE GIVING US SOME CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE SECOND...WHICH IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE FIRST TROUGH BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN THE CANADIAN AIR MASS BEING IN PLACE AND LARGELY UNMODIFIED /I.E. STILL REALLY COLD/ IS HIGHER. HOWEVER A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH MEANS WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION. BECAUSE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM AND LIFT IS NOT AS STRONG...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REALIZE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST/THURSDAY TROUGH. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE SOME 20 POPS IN PLACE WITH A MENTION OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN LATER FORECASTS OF COURSE. DID WANT TO POINT OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN THOUGH AS EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S COULD CAUSE TRAVEL HAZARDS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE HOLD ON TO SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT BEHIND THURSDAYS UPPER TROUGH AS THE LARGER AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MAKES A DIVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. OUR CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE PROBABLY HIGHER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SIMPLY DUE TO THE STRONGER FORCING AND ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT ARRIVES. HOWEVER THIS ADVECTION WILL MODIFY THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES NECESSARY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. IT SEEMS LOGICAL THAT IF THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAN WE WILL IF IT IS SLOWER AND IMPACTS US DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SECOND UPPER TROUGH VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS AS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PLAY HOST TO THE DREADED PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION ZONE PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. CAVANAUGH

He wrote a great discussion at the fort worth nws this morning.

[gboudx]

Southern Met for us that do not know who Cavanaugh is, how about a hint what he is saying?

If you know your classic literature, then he's the J.R.R. Tolkien of AFD writers and works for the DFW NWS.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail fro Jeff:

Sunday’s cold front has pushed well into the Gulf this morning with cold and cloudy conditions across the entire region.

North winds still ongoing this morning helping keep the cold air flowing southward off the snow covered central plains. Next storm system is clearly noted in water vapor images coming ashore over southern California and will arrive across the state of TX tonight into Tuesday. No longer expect the warm frontal boundary to push inland, but it could at least get close to the coast. With this in mind think we will see mainly light rain and showers…early Tuesday…similar to yesterday as lift and moisture increases.

While models attempt to show some clearing today, moisture is trapped in the frontal inversion and many times this is hard to mix out until the inversion breaks. Think clouds will be very slow to break up if at all and this will have a direct impact on high temperatures. If we stay cloudy highs will only reach the mid 40’s, if the sun does break out this afternoon highs could reach the lower 50’s.

Storm system on Tuesday will be fast moving and expect rain chances mainly in the morning with a good deal of snow expected across the southern plains into the central plains…which could become very important for our late week forecast. Expect rain chances to end fairly quickly on Tuesday afternoon and may even see a brief period of clearing as a strong more “arctic” like air mass pours into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Late Week Storm System:
Yet another in the series of storms moving ashore on the west coast will impact TX toward the end of the week. This is where the forecast gets somewhat interesting as there will be a lot at play come Thursday and Friday across the region. First will be the cold air mass which arrives on Wednesday. This air mass does not look overly cold, but with a large developing snow pack over the central plains this week…think forecast models are warming the incoming air mass too much as it pushes southward over the upstream snow cover. Next storm system begins to approach the state on Thursday with increasing moisture being forced into the cold air mass. Given the dry surface layer think it will take a period of time for precipitation to start to reach the ground as the air mass will have to saturate from aloft to the surface. Should start to see light rain/drizzle reach the surface Thursday evening. Coastal trough developing off the lower TX coast on Thursday night and only slowly moves up the coast on Friday will help to spread moisture inland from the coast. Current thinking is that this will be mainly light rainfall and drizzle.

Critical factor then becomes surface air temperature Thursday night into Friday morning. GFS has both CLL and IAH falling to 30 degrees Friday morning with a significant warm layer of air above the surface. This is yet again pointing toward a freezing rain/freezing drizzle profile for potentially part of the region. Since we are still several days away from any potential event and the models have not been showing very good agreement over the last 48 hours….will keep everything rain for the period from midnight to noon on Friday at this point, but the potential is there for some degree of winter precipitation across portions of SE TX toward the end of the week.

[wxman57]

It doesn't look like any significant snow event later this week for NE TX, and certainly not for Houston. It's sort of like the last two winter weather episodes. Close but no cigar. Only 25 more days until the warmth of March and Daylight Savings Time when we get an extra hour of afternoon sunshine!

[TexasStorm]

:uarrow: And it already puts us in the fridge for almost a week, if we get above freezing it's not by much once we fall Tuesday night. -Wpo/-Epo signature prolonged cold snap/freeze.

06Z took that away. It has us cold but the lowest temp it has is the Thursday-Friday timeframe with 22F being the low. Has us back above freezing on Saturday. Also no precipitation anytime we are below freezing.

[Ntxw]

Oh yes, heat wave to mid 30s and rose from 19 to 22. Certainly took it away bring out shorts and tshirts. But of course 10-20f below normal the whole stretch isn't worth the cause.

Gospel.

41st freeze, 7 more to go!

[dhweather]

Well, hope for me took six rounds to the chest. It will be cold, but not cold enough. There will be precip, but not enough or at the wrong times. I've given up on seeing any significant wintry precip this year, it's just not in the tea leaves.





Making matters worse, I'm anticipating a relatively dry spring. Stage 4 drought, here we come!

[TexasStorm]

:uarrow: Oh yes, heat wave to mid 30s and rose from 19 to 22. Certainly took it away bring out shorts and tshirts. But of course 10-20f below normal the whole stretch isn't worth the cause.

Gospel.

41st freeze, 7 more to go!

Was just saying that it is trending warmer by a little. Yes we are still in the 30's for a long stretch.

[gboudx]

Making matters worse, I'm anticipating a relatively dry spring. Stage 4 drought, here we come!

From what I've heard, it's already here but just hasn't been announced yet. The NTMWD had a meeting a couple weeks ago and decided to implement Stage 4, but hasn't publicly announced it. This is "rumour" at this time, but I heard it from a friend who's friend is an attorney who sits on the NTMWD board meetings. But still more permits are given for further housing developments putting further strain on a dwindling resource.

[dhweather]

Making matters worse, I'm anticipating a relatively dry spring. Stage 4 drought, here we come!

From what I've heard, it's already here but just hasn't been announced yet. The NTMWD had a meeting a couple weeks ago and decided to implement Stage 4, but hasn't publicly announced it. This is "rumour" at this time, but I heard it from a friend who's friend is an attorney who sits on the NTMWD board meetings. But still more permits are given for further housing developments putting further strain on a dwindling resource.

They are going to have to stop the growth. Hate it, the construction industry is just now recovering from the 2008 crash, and now this. Too many people and not close to enough water.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Making matters worse, I'm anticipating a relatively dry spring. Stage 4 drought, here we come!

From what I've heard, it's already here but just hasn't been announced yet. The NTMWD had a meeting a couple weeks ago and decided to implement Stage 4, but hasn't publicly announced it. This is "rumour" at this time, but I heard it from a friend who's friend is an attorney who sits on the NTMWD board meetings. But still more permits are given for further housing developments putting further strain on a dwindling resource.

If there is a Stage 4 does new home construction have to stop or something? Only asking because I should have a new home break ground in March..