Texas Winter 2013-2014

[WeatherGuesser]

It's disappointing to see that some here continue to live and die with every model run. One of my hopes for Storm2K has always been that folks read and learn. It appears some are reading but they're not learning much. Computer models are to be taken in context with many things, including what is happening real time with the weather. Computer models have biases and none are perfect.

Did you catch this story about a kid spreading models?

http://www.theindychannel.com/weather/3 ... m-debunked

[Ntxw]

The GFS has a whopping .24 (liquid) for Mesquite through 192 hours. I fear the drought situation, I'm afraid it will be 2006/12 bad.

I think the year as whole will be near average to slightly below as the central Pacific warms. Exceptional droughts and extreme droughts (for the year as a whole) comes with strong La Ninas which there will not be one. A 2012/2013 type drought is more likely than 2010/2011. The worst drought in the country by summer will be out west in California.

[orangeblood]

The GFS has a whopping .24 (liquid) for Mesquite through 192 hours. I fear the drought situation, I'm afraid it will be 2006/12 bad.

I just love the optimism in all of your posts . This is nothing like the early 1950's so it could be much worse

[texas1836]

The GFS has a whopping .24 (liquid) for Mesquite through 192 hours. I fear the drought situation, I'm afraid it will be 2006/12 bad.

I just love the optimism in all of your posts . This is nothing like the early 1950's so it could be much worse

True Dat....

[dhweather]

The GFS has a whopping .24 (liquid) for Mesquite through 192 hours. I fear the drought situation, I'm afraid it will be 2006/12 bad.

I just love the optimism in all of your posts . This is nothing like the early 1950's so it could be much worse

I keep thinking this year will be the year to end it, and it doesn't happen. I think of it as realism.


Lake Lavon, the primary source of drinking water for a large part of Dallas, is presently -12.33 , at the peak of 2006, it was -16 , so a couple of dry spring/summer months, we're in trouble. This might be a redo of the 50's , which would be terrible.

[TheProfessor]

The GFS has a whopping .24 (liquid) for Mesquite through 192 hours. I fear the drought situation, I'm afraid it will be 2006/12 bad.

I just love the optimism in all of your posts . This is nothing like the early 1950's so it could be much worse

I keep thinking this year will be the year to end it, and it doesn't happen. I think of it as realism.


Lake Lavon, the primary source of drinking water for a large part of Dallas, is presently -12.33 , at the peak of 2006, it was -16 , so a couple of dry spring/summer months, we're in trouble. This might be a redo of the 50's , which would be terrible.

Was the 50s worst than the 30s drought?

[dhweather]

From everything I've read and seen, the 50's was the worst.

[orangeblood]

for North Texas yes, the stretch from 1951-1956 was the worst stretch in recorded history. If you look back at history though, the current drought isn't that terrible. Any below normal stretch is exaggerated now because of our consumption problem. DFW is the dividing line of a pretty arid climate so it shouldn't be that surprising. The growth out in Midland (because of the oil/gas shale boom) is much more worrisome re: water issues, IMO

[Tireman4]

From everything I've read and seen, the 50's was the worst.

A great book to read about the Depression, the Dust Bowl and the people who lived it...


The Worst Hard Time by Timothy Egan. Very very good book./

[Meteorcane]

It's disappointing to see that some here continue to live and die with every model run. One of my hopes for Storm2K has always been that folks read and learn. It appears some are reading but they're not learning much. Computer models are to be taken in context with many things, including what is happening real time with the weather. Computer models have biases and none are perfect.

Did you catch this story about a kid spreading models?

http://www.theindychannel.com/weather/3 ... m-debunked

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Snowman67]

12Z GFS is cold for Dallas-Ft. Worth later (21F) this week but no precip. About 10 degrees less cold in Houston and no precip. My web server is down and I can't post the meteograms at the moment. It is now indicating some snow for D-FW next Sunday. I think it's just teasing you. I don't expect much more than temps in the mid to upper 30s and light rain here in Houston later this week.

So you feel confident that the Tomball area will not have to deal with any freezing precipitation in the Thursday-Saturday time period?

[Tireman4]

It's disappointing to see that some here continue to live and die with every model run. One of my hopes for Storm2K has always been that folks read and learn. It appears some are reading but they're not learning much. Computer models are to be taken in context with many things, including what is happening real time with the weather. Computer models have biases and none are perfect.

Did you catch this story about a kid spreading models?

http://www.theindychannel.com/weather/3 ... m-debunked

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/7105/f668.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

So that is how it started with Wxman57. No wonder....

[weatherdude1108]

It's disappointing to see that some here continue to live and die with every model run. One of my hopes for Storm2K has always been that folks read and learn. It appears some are reading but they're not learning much. Computer models are to be taken in context with many things, including what is happening real time with the weather. Computer models have biases and none are perfect.

Did you catch this story about a kid spreading models?

http://www.theindychannel.com/weather/3 ... m-debunked

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/7105/f668.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Love it!

[Ntxw]

I will post seasonal numbers for DFW on the -PDO driven drought since 06. It's not really up there with the big droughts it just seems that way because of explosive growth and the metroplex's dependence on artificial water sources. Plus after being spoiled with one of the wettest PDO+ of the 90s and early 00s adds to the sensationalism. The numbers are similar to 70s drought overall.

[Cyclenall]

It's disappointing to see that some here continue to live and die with every model run. One of my hopes for Storm2K has always been that folks read and learn. It appears some are reading but they're not learning much. Computer models are to be taken in context with many things, including what is happening real time with the weather. Computer models have biases and none are perfect.

Did you catch this story about a kid spreading models?

http://www.theindychannel.com/weather/3 ... m-debunked

I heard about it with BAM Chase but nowhere in that article does it say a kid did it.

I love that image posted above, never saw it . My favorite was the last 20 runs of the DGEX opened on his computer!!

[WeatherGuesser]

Did you catch this story about a kid spreading models?

http://www.theindychannel.com/weather/3 ... m-debunked

I heard about it with BAM Chase but nowhere in that article does it say a kid did it.

I read several articles on it. At least one of them mentioned a 16 year old kid.

[TheProfessor]

It's disappointing to see that some here continue to live and die with every model run. One of my hopes for Storm2K has always been that folks read and learn. It appears some are reading but they're not learning much. Computer models are to be taken in context with many things, including what is happening real time with the weather. Computer models have biases and none are perfect.

Did you catch this story about a kid spreading models?

http://www.theindychannel.com/weather/3 ... m-debunked

I heard about it with BAM Chase but nowhere in that article does it say a kid did it.

I love that image posted above, never saw it . My favorite was the last 20 runs of the DGEX opened on his computer!!

What is the DGEX?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I love that image posted above, never saw it . My favorite was the last 20 runs of the DGEX opened on his computer!![/quote]

What is the DGEX?[/quote]
It's essentially an extended version of the NAM; it picks up at 90 hours.

[TheProfessor]

I love that image posted above, never saw it . My favorite was the last 20 runs of the DGEX opened on his computer!!

What is the DGEX?[/quote]
It's essentially an extended version of the NAM; it picks up at 90 hours.[/quote]

Ok. Are there any free websites where I can view it?

[gboudx]

Ok. Are there any free websites where I can view it?

Google is your friend.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexhome.ops/