Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[txagwxman]

Which TV meteorologists there (Dallas) did the best at the forecast and the worst?

[DentonGal]

Which TV meteorologists there (Dallas) did the best at the forecast and the worst?

IMO, they all missed it by a mile and hung true with that the NWS was saying, 1 to 3 inches, no travel problems, etc. Once it was on top of us, they all starting singing a different tune, but viewers really had no clue how bad this was going to be.

[Dustan78]

After it started, and a little bit before, id say the fox 4 dude did a pretty good job, he was calling that we would break the record at dfw in his 7ish update.

But for the most part they all missed it by a mile, but in their defense so did nws fw.

[txagwxman]

[txagwxman]

After it started, and a little bit before, id say the fox 4 dude did a pretty good job, he was calling that we would break the record at dfw in his 7ish update.

But for the most part they all missed it by a mile, but in their defense so did nws fw.

Wish I was forecasting up there for this...

[Ntxw]

After it started, and a little bit before, id say the fox 4 dude did a pretty good job, he was calling that we would break the record at dfw in his 7ish update.

But for the most part they all missed it by a mile, but in their defense so did nws fw.

No one can really truly predict a record snow here accurately, too many things have to fall into place perfectly. It's tough enough to make the weather ripe for any snowfall in these parts. But, the information and data was there for them it was a matter if they chose to believe it or not.

[Texas Snowman]

Which TV meteorologists there (Dallas) did the best at the forecast and the worst?

IMO, they all missed it by a mile and hung true with that the NWS was saying, 1 to 3 inches, no travel problems, etc. Once it was on top of us, they all starting singing a different tune, but viewers really had no clue how bad this was going to be.

Yep, I agree...no one was close on this one at all. Most of the mets - NWS and TV - in the D/FW area have a little egg on their face after this storm.

[srainhoutx]

And to think we may do this all over again next weekend except this time Portastorm and I need to see something stick (I saw a 'dusting' with the Dec 4th event). Congrats N TX folks. Awesome pics!

[Ntxw]

And to think we may do this all over again next weekend except this time Portastorm and I need to see something stick (I saw a 'dusting' with the Dec 4th event). Congrats N TX folks. Awesome pics!

As long as you give us the 2 inches to break the season record, I hope you guys get lots! (except put an umbrella and tanning bed over wxman's place)

[Nederlander]

well southerngale... although we missed out on it.. at least some parts of southeast texas saw some wintry precip.. this is from kfdm.com (i was getting ready for work when it was apparently sleeting so i missed it)

Snow in SETX
Comments 0 | Recommend 0
February 12, 2010 7:00 AM
Jessica Holloway

It has been snowing in parts of Southeast Texas. Tami Tarver from the Food Mart in Burkeville says it began snowing there at 4 a.m. Friday. She says there's about an inch on the ground. She sent KFDM photos.

Another view said it was snowing in Kountze at about 7:30 a.m. Sleet was reported in Nederland at 7:30 a.m.

[iorange55]

Trying to knock more snow off the dish and I got about a foot of snow that dropped on me.


That was fun.

[Texas Snowman]

But, the information and data was there for them it was a matter if they chose to believe it or not.

That's what gets me. I understand not forecasting a 12.5" snowstorm when you're not rock solid sure. But it wasn't like this jumped out of a hat at the last possible second either. As you alluded to, there was some information and data well before the storm that suggested something significant could occur.

Ft. Worth NWS chose not to believe it, played it safe, and tweaked things as they went along. I'm just not sure it counts if you didn't "forecast" it until it was actually happening.

Personally, I think a little more prudent approach would have been to say "Here's what we are forecasting but please note that there's also a chance that this thing could turn out to be something much more significant."

Putting up a Winter Storm Watch a day or two out would have been one way to do that IMO.

[txagwxman]

We ain't done yet...lots of ECMWF ensemble members support the ECMWF solution next weekend.

[txagwxman]

But, the information and data was there for them it was a matter if they chose to believe it or not.

That's what gets me. I understand not forecasting a 12.5" snowstorm when you're not rock solid sure. But it wasn't like this jumped out of a hat at the last possible second either. As you alluded to, there was some information and data well before the storm that suggested something significant could occur.

Ft. Worth NWS chose not to believe it, played it safe, and tweaked things as they went along. I'm just not sure it counts if you didn't "forecast" it until it was actually happening.

Personally, I think a little more prudent approach would have been to say "Here's what we are forecasting but please note that there's also a chance that this thing could turn out to be something much more significant."

Putting up a Winter Storm Watch a day or two out would have been one way to do that IMO.

The problem was the NAM/GFS which the NWS are so dependent on where too warm with the boundary layer temps across Dallas. By 12z once you saw the soundings from FTW you could make a quick judgement that the NAM/GFS were too warm. The ECMWF/GEM/UKMET nailed it...although the GEM did the best.

[Ntxw]

We ain't done yet...lots of ECMWF ensemble members support the ECMWF solution next weekend.

Think we have a good shot at getting at least 2 inches of snow based on it?

[Portastorm]

We ain't done yet...lots of ECMWF ensemble members support the ECMWF solution next weekend.

Oh wait, let me guess ... heavy snow for North Texas ... sleet/snow for SE Texas ... sunny and warm for Austin Texas. Right?

I think I've seen this movie before.

[txagwxman]

We ain't done yet...lots of ECMWF ensemble members support the ECMWF solution next weekend.

Oh wait, let me guess ... heavy snow for North Texas ... sleet/snow for SE Texas ... sunny and warm for Austin Texas. Right?

I think I've seen this movie before.

Lots of ECMWF ensemble members are colder than the Euro (LOTS). But not going to hype this up yet...too far for me.

[brewskymc]

After it started, and a little bit before, id say the fox 4 dude did a pretty good job, he was calling that we would break the record at dfw in his 7ish update.

But for the most part they all missed it by a mile, but in their defense so did nws fw.

Wish I was forecasting up there for this...

I wish that we had a meteorologist up here with your experience and forecasting skills. Unfortunately, the station would probably try to muzzle you and force you to parrot the NWS forecasters... er, model worshippers and waffle with each model run.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

We ain't done yet...lots of ECMWF ensemble members support the ECMWF solution next weekend.

Any chance Central and South Texas get in on the action next weekend? Portstorm is going to have to get grief counseling before too long.




BTW, we haven't enjoyed the white stuff down this way yet. But this winter has been great . Not one temp over 80 since early December! I can't recall a time where we've had a huge number of days below and sometimes way below normal down this way.

Really happy for everyone up north from here that got the snow. In 2004 when we got our snow miracle at Christmas and I had almost 7 inches in my front yard, it was a sight to behold. And thanks to this board and JB, I had a heads up to the possibilty.

[Texas Snowman]

The problem was the NAM/GFS which the NWS are so dependent on where too warm with the boundary layer temps across Dallas.

As someone alluded to a week or two ago in this very thread, a good met uses all the tools at his or her disposal. Most of you guys on this board do, which is why I love Storm2K.

I'll quit beating a dead horse, but it is almost comical that a "less than 1-inch on grassy surfaces" forecast less than 48-hours out turned into the all-time benchmark snowstorm for DFW.