Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

I’m pretty sure last week you guys were saying the Euro weeklies were looking great for us for February and now all of a sudden they aren’t? If that’s the case I wouldn’t put too much stock into the Euro weeklies.

I was thinking the same thing. Just a few days ago things were looking great and seemed to be on track.

[Quixotic]

The weeklies seem to be all over the place with that ridge. I think it will be further west than depicted. Just off the coast is good for a Central trough.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I’m pretty sure last week you guys were saying the Euro weeklies were looking great for us for February and now all of a sudden they aren’t? If that’s the case I wouldn’t put too much stock into the Euro weeklies.

Yea, the Euro weeklies are at times what the GFS is at 384 hours showing that Cat 5 in the Gulf or blizzard over Austin. Once in a blue moon they might be right this far out.

[Yukon Cornelius]

We must have been the cold spot in the area. 22 this morning per my weather station and another online station a few miles away.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I don't know how well the Weather Channel performs on their extended forecasts but as of right now for February the northern half of the state is forecasted to be near or slightly above average temps and the southern half of the state to be above average temps. The trend continues into March with the northern half being above average and the southern half being much above average. Winter Cancel.

[Ralph's Weather]

We must have been the cold spot in the area. 22 this morning per my weather station and another online station a few miles away.

Snuck in a bonus freeze at my house with 31.

[srainhoutx]

Light scattered frost on roof tops in NW Harris County from that "Pacific" front.

[utweather]

I’m pretty sure last week you guys were saying the Euro weeklies were looking great for us for February and now all of a sudden they aren’t? If that’s the case I wouldn’t put too much stock into the Euro weeklies.

Yea, the Euro weeklies are at times what the GFS is at 384 hours showing that Cat 5 in the Gulf or blizzard over Austin. Once in a blue moon they might be right this far out.

At 384 hours you're better off showing it having a heat wave and then you can go in an pick apart where it will be wrong and whats it missing. Better chances in my opinion you're likely to see the cold air it couldn't get a handle on rather than it showing a blizzard and it being completely off the other way. Reverse psychology with the long range models..

[orangeblood]

I’m pretty sure last week you guys were saying the Euro weeklies were looking great for us for February and now all of a sudden they aren’t? If that’s the case I wouldn’t put too much stock into the Euro weeklies.

Yea, the Euro weeklies are at times what the GFS is at 384 hours showing that Cat 5 in the Gulf or blizzard over Austin. Once in a blue moon they might be right this far out.

We are only a little over a week out from Feb now, the weeklies a couple of weeks ago for Feb did look good for us...the Weeklies get more accurate as you get closer to the targeted dates, they are now trending towards more of a ++PNA look, which is typically not good for us

Rumblings on social media of Feb 2015 showing up as a good analog...for the southern plains, that month didn't really get cranking until the last week of Feb

[bubba hotep]

Like I said yesterday, I'm not overly concerned with the Euro Weeklies. Past runs have been good for Texas and past runs have been bad for Texas. The biggest takeaway is that there isn't a prolonged torch in the cards and a return to colder weather is on the way. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the longer range models shift the core of the cold back west, if this holds:

[Portastorm]

Euro weeklies ... ppffff ... Euro-Schmuro.

We don't need that. We have wxman57 promising us winter action well before the last week of February. The smart money is on him because he's already produced (and then some) this winter season.

[bubba hotep]

And right on cue lol

[Ntxw]

GFS and CMC both are quite interesting late next week southern plains. Big shortwave

[CaptinCrunch]

We must have been the cold spot in the area. 22 this morning per my weather station and another online station a few miles away.

Snuck in a bonus freeze at my house with 31.

it was 32 @ the house this morning, had a good frost on both cars and rooftops.

[orangeblood]

Like I said yesterday, I'm not overly concerned with the Euro Weeklies. Past runs have been good for Texas and past runs have been bad for Texas. The biggest takeaway is that there isn't a prolonged torch in the cards and a return to colder weather is on the way. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the longer range models shift the core of the cold back west, if this holds:

https://image.ibb.co/fZso3b/4indices.png

If the PNA stays the course as shown, then I believe our chances increase dramatically...my biggest concern is that it has been very difficult to sustain a -PNA this winter

[Ralph's Weather]

Like I said yesterday, I'm not overly concerned with the Euro Weeklies. Past runs have been good for Texas and past runs have been bad for Texas. The biggest takeaway is that there isn't a prolonged torch in the cards and a return to colder weather is on the way. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the longer range models shift the core of the cold back west, if this holds:

All four of those indicate a turn to colder and more unsettled weather to start Feb. We are in the middle of our January thaw and temps are in the 60s for a bit, love it. Canada is loading up on cold right now and this first batch looks to slide east, but ensembles show them aiming down the Plains thereafter.

[TheProfessor]

The 12z GFS is oh so close for Texas. It would still be a pretty decent storm for me, but a storm further south(but not suppressed) would likely benefit us both.

[wxman22]

Yep the 12z Gfs and Canadian look very similar around the beginning of the month, both look very close to showing a winter storm.

[weatherdude1108]

Another ice/snow day in the works, at 324-336 hours per GFS?

[vbhoutex]

Light scattered frost on roof tops in NW Harris County from that "Pacific" front.

Didn't notice any frost at my place, but 38.5f is plenty cool enough for a low thank you.