Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

Days are increasing in length by over 1 1/2 minutes each day now, and the sun angle is increasing by about 0.35 deg/day. March will be here before we know it.

P.S. I didn't see my shadow on Sunday

I, for one young sir, do not want the 90's anytime soon. LOL. As I grow older, I am growing to dislike them. I would like 80's during summer (aint gonna get that), but I dare to dream.

[wxman57]

P.S. I didn't see my shadow on Sunday

You may like this jamstec forecast for spring (and summer). However it's been wrong quite often the past 2 years so, but of course you choose to believe it right?

http://www.jamstec.go...

I love it! It's absolutely believable, as it's indicating quite warm weather across Texas from May through September. Surely it can't be wrong?

[wxman57]

I, for one young sir, do not want the 90's anytime soon. LOL. As I grow older, I am growing to dislike them. I would like 80's during summer (aint gonna get that), but I dare to dream.

As I get older I like 90s even more. I'd like 80s in the summer, too - for lows.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW AFD 2/4/2014
CAVANAUGH

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING...OUT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THIS EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS EVENING...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH WILL PERSIST OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN HIGHS THAT HOLD 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A TRICKY ONE BECAUSE
MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION A BIT. ASSUMING MOST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON NORTHWARD
WILL BE COVERED IN A DECENT SNOW PACK BY TOMORROW...MODELS MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATING HOW COLD UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TOMORROW. SIDED WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FOR NOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH THIS IN MIND.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY...SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THINK THAT IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT
TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS PASSING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
SHOW THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA. THIS GAP IN UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL MAKE
LIFT IN EITHER AREA INEFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. AS A
RESULT JUST MAINTAINED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW UP ALONG
THE RED RIVER WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SOUTHEAST OF
WACO ON THURSDAY. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LIGHT SNOWFALL
AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE SHOWN LESS OF A TENDENCY TO
AGREE ON A SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HERE`S WHAT THE MODELS AGREE ON:

THE CENTRAL PLAINS ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MODIFICATION OF THE COLD...CANADIAN AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.

INSTEAD OF SHOWING ONE LARGE UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...MOST GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES A SERIES OF FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD.

WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN...IS THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

WENT AHEAD AND PLACED A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST
ON FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA AS THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL SHOWED
GOOD LOW-LEVEL INSENTROPIC LIFT AND H850 MOISTURE RETURN OVER THESE
AREAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY EVENING. WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT SOME LOW CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ALONG THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL ONLY PAN OUT IF THE TROUGH
MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF IT STAYS NORTH...WE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST OVER OKLAHOMA WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN AND GFS SHOW SOME VERSION OF THIS AS
WELL...THEY ARE JUST SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MAINTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE CWA
ON SATURDAY BECAUSE OF THIS COLD FRONT.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY ASSUMING THE ECMWF PANS
OUT...AS DRY COOL AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTERS IN BEHIND SATURDAYS COLD
FRONT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE EXTENDED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE MEDIUM RANGE...INDICATING A GRADUAL
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP WARMER WEATHER
IN PLACE THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...SO HAVE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO GENERALLY AGREES THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...SO WENT AHEAD WITH BROAD BRUSHED
20 POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS
INDICATE ALL RAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...IF IT PANS OUT.

CAVANAUGH

[Ntxw]

I agree with you, but I'm just showing where this discussion could be resulting from. And like I said, it's on the reader if they read more into it than what was intended and even pointed out by the author. It's usually a losing proposition to buy into long-term models, except in Summer when it forecasts hot and dry. This is why I never, ever buy into any wintry precip event until I see it falling, and it's why you won't see me post about getting hopes up for anything more than 5 minutes out.

I hear ya, many of us get burned many times over the years. But it's not always wrong, it's cool when it turns out correct. I know the risks but it's more fun to dig deeper and present information not just what the models show but history and set ups that people don't know about or wonder what it may be like back then, which is what I try to do other than just posting a straight map from a model and saying look what it has. It takes a lot of time and effort to pull stuff out like that but the reward is in the information more than the verification. But then at the same time when it is criticized, when they put little effort other than just saying a model is wrong, for the effort it makes me wonder if it's really worth the time and work to keep doing it.

[WeatherGuesser]

I, for one young sir, do not want the 90's anytime soon. LOL. As I grow older, I am growing to dislike them. I would like 80's during summer (aint gonna get that), but I dare to dream.

As I get older I like 90s even more. I'd like 80s in the summer, too - for lows.

If I had my 'druthers, I'd rather not ever see below 50 or above 80 again in my lifetime. But I rarely get what I want.

[Tireman4]

I, for one young sir, do not want the 90's anytime soon. LOL. As I grow older, I am growing to dislike them. I would like 80's during summer (aint gonna get that), but I dare to dream.

As I get older I like 90s even more. I'd like 80s in the summer, too - for lows.

You are killing me sir. Just killing me. Was not 2011 enough? Sigh....

[aggiecutter]

Significant winter weather event going on this morning in Texarkana. We have been experiencing light to moderate freezing for the past 4 hours. The NWS issued a WWA a couple hours ago, after the fact. None of this was forecasted. Currently, it is 31 in Texarkana with freezing rain. There are significant ice accumulations on bridges, overpasses, power lines, and trees.

[dhweather]

Significant winter weather event going on this morning in Texarkana. We have been experiencing light to moderate freezing for the past 4 hours. The NWS issued a WWA a couple hours ago, after the fact. None of this was forecasted. Currently, it is 31 in Texarkana with freezing rain. There are significant ice accumulations on bridges, overpasses, power lines, and trees.

That 1-2 degrees makes such a huge difference. Unfortunately for you, it's ice, hope you keep your electricity on!

[Snowman67]

With the passage of this week without any significant sleet or snow in Houston, I think I'm ready to call "winter over" for Houston in terms of any decent chance of seeing measurable snow. Long-range models (deterministic and ensembles) agree on a gradual pattern change that will shunt all cold air coming across the Pole west of Alaska with a big upper low developing in the northern Gulf of Alaska into southern Alaska. With that kind of flow pattern it's quite unlikely we'll have any more winter weather events in Houston. Of course, a stray sleet pellet may still be possible, but that is about it.

Days are increasing in length by over 1 1/2 minutes each day now, and the sun angle is increasing by about 0.35 deg/day. March will be here before we know it.

P.S. I didn't see my shadow on Sunday

Here's hoping for a late season winter storm to blow/bust your forecast

[TheProfessor]

I, for one young sir, do not want the 90's anytime soon. LOL. As I grow older, I am growing to dislike them. I would like 80's during summer (aint gonna get that), but I dare to dream.

As I get older I like 90s even more. I'd like 80s in the summer, too - for lows.

You are killing me sir. Just killing me. Was not 2011 enough? Sigh....

You know speaking of 2011, I always thought that the heat from that summer was because the Miami heat wanted revenge from losing to the Mavericks in the finals. It turns out it was all wxman57 doing!

[aggiecutter]

Significant winter weather event going on this morning in Texarkana. We have been experiencing light to moderate freezing for the past 4 hours. The NWS issued a WWA a couple hours ago, after the fact. None of this was forecasted. Currently, it is 31 in Texarkana with freezing rain. There are significant ice accumulations on bridges, overpasses, power lines, and trees.

That 1-2 degrees makes such a huge difference. Unfortunately for you, it's ice, hope you keep your electricity on!

Yep, the forecasted low was 34. It dropped to 31, thus the freezing rain.

[wxman57]

Yeah, sorry, my hand slipped on the thermostat in 2011 and I set it to 105 vs. 95 for average high temps. Unfortunately, with such cold water all across the northern Gulf this winter I fear that spring is going to be quite miserable until water temps get above 65 degrees. Until then, every return flow period will result in fog, drizzle and low clouds. Not much warm sunshine. No big towering cumulus clouds and afternoon storms until May.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah, sorry, my hand slipped on the thermostat in 2011 and I set it to 105 vs. 95 for average high temps. Unfortunately, with such cold water all across the northern Gulf this winter I fear that spring is going to be quite miserable until water temps get above 65 degrees. Until then, every return flow period will result in fog, drizzle and low clouds. Not much warm sunshine. No big towering cumulus clouds and afternoon storms until May.

That's terrible! I need those big towering cumulus clouds! That means no severe storms!

[texas1836]

Yeah, sorry, my hand slipped on the thermostat in 2011 and I set it to 105 vs. 95 for average high temps. Unfortunately, with such cold water all across the northern Gulf this winter I fear that spring is going to be quite miserable until water temps get above 65 degrees. Until then, every return flow period will result in fog, drizzle and low clouds. Not much warm sunshine. No big towering cumulus clouds and afternoon storms until May.

I hope this will keep temps down for the DFW area. A slow start to the extreme summer temps is fine by me.

[wxman57]

Yeah, sorry, my hand slipped on the thermostat in 2011 and I set it to 105 vs. 95 for average high temps. Unfortunately, with such cold water all across the northern Gulf this winter I fear that spring is going to be quite miserable until water temps get above 65 degrees. Until then, every return flow period will result in fog, drizzle and low clouds. Not much warm sunshine. No big towering cumulus clouds and afternoon storms until May.

That's terrible! I need those big towering cumulus clouds! That means no severe storms!

That's a downside of a cold northern Gulf. I always look forward to spring when I see the first big towering cumulus clouds and afternoon thunderstorms. However, the cool water will delay the arrival of afternoon storms and make for a prolonged transition between winter and spring. Temps will likely remain below normal in March and April due to more clouds than normal.

[South Texas Storms]

It's good to see the rain again. I really hope we enter into a wetter pattern this month.

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS is showing a nice storm system bringing heavy rain to central and southeast Texas and snow to north Texas next Tuesday.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_59.png

[TheProfessor]

12z GFS is showing a nice storm system bringing heavy rain to central and southeast Texas and snow to north Texas next Tuesday.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_59.png

Yeah I saw this yesterday on the Gfs and the extended Nam.

[Portastorm]

The weather pros at the NWS national weather desk in DC have basically said this morning to throw out the GFS over the next 3-4 days. They believe the Euro ensemble means is the best way to go.


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2014

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 07 2014 - 12Z TUE FEB 11 2014

...OVERVIEW...
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD THIS
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH A
DOMINANT RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BECOMES A
FLAT...BUT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DOWNSTREAM...THE RATHER
PERSISTENT TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA AND A RELOADING OF
COLD...CANADIAN AIRMASSES...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
SOUTHERN STREAM THAT STARTS OUT WITH GULF OF MEXICO
INFLUENCES...THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PACIFIC INFLUENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY (11 FEB 2014).

...PREFERENCES...
WPC CONTINUITY HAS BEEN PLANTED IN A UKMET/ECMWF CAMP...WHICH
SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE OF THE CATALYST FOR CHANGE (TRANSITION) IN
THIS NORTH AMERICAN FLOW PATTERN--THAT BEING--THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MUCH OF THE SPREAD BACK 4-7 DAYS AGO
WAS RELATED TO THE EROSION OR WEAKENING OF THIS EXPANSIVE RIDGE
ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANKS. AND FOR THE MOST PART... THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO BE "THE MORE CORRECT" GUIDANCE IN DETERMINING WHEN THE
TIMING OF THE EROSION WOULD OCCUR AS THE STRONG BUT SHARP
SHORTWAVE TRACKED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE LOWER 48. PER THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...THIS SHARP
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUKON TERRITORY (AT LAST
GLANCE_4/12Z TIME FRAME).

IN TERMS OF THE PRESENT...AND THE DAY 3-7 FORECAST AHEAD...THE
SPREAD ALOFT REMAINS TIED TO THE OUTCOME THIS SHARP SHORTWAVE AS
IT MIGRATES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES DAYS 3-4.
BY DAY 4...SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY-MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
ALOFT...LESS SHEARED...LIKE THE 4/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND ITS
MEAN...AND IN TURN...ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE AND COASTAL WAVE(S) TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING BUT DIFFUSE FRONTAL
DRAPE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THERE'LL BE A CONTINUED SHEARING OF
THIS WAVE...IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR INVOF 120W AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. BUT AT THE MOMENT...VERY LITTLE SUPPORTS THIS
NOTION. AND BECAUSE ALL THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THERE IS A 'GENERAL CONSENSUS' WITH YET ANOTHER
WINTER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY
(DAY4) AND TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY (DAY6).

I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLY
THE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. AND
BOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW
ALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'S
A GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6)
SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THE
FORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVER
THE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
TRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTIL
THEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW IN THE WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST SAT/D4 INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUN/D5. A WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST AND THEN EXIT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON/D6 AND WELL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY
TUE/D7. PRECIPITATION COULD BE ROBUST... OR COULD BE NEXT TO
NOTHING...FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

IN THE WEST... A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
ADVERTISED BY THE WEEKEND WITH LINGER EFFECTS INTO NEXT WEEK...
CENTERED ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ALL
ALONG THE COASTAL REGION OF WA/OR/CA WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAIN... AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CARRYOVER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY INTO OR/NV.

TEMPERATURES NEARLY CONUS-WIDE WILL STAY RELATIVELY COLD WITH ONLY
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.


VOJTESAK