Texas Winter 2013-2014

[orangeblood]

12z GFS is showing a nice storm system bringing heavy rain to central and southeast Texas and snow to north Texas next Tuesday.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_59.png

Yep, models have been hinting at the 11th-14th time period as something to watch....with plenty of cold air still around to our north and amplification on the west coast because of the strengthening Gulf of Alaska Low, it's very plausible to see a system dig down into the southern plains. Now, of course, the downside of that Gulf of Alaska Low is that it will eventually erode the cold air sitting across the US with Pacific air. So with that being said, IMO, this might be our last decent shot at a winter event for most south of Red River....maybe for the rest of winter



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah I agree with you. It looks like there is at least a decent chance that zonal flow dominates the weather pattern across the U.S. during the second half of February, which wouldn't be good for winter weather in central Texas.

[TheProfessor]

The weather pros at the NWS national weather desk in DC have basically said this morning to throw out the GFS over the next 3-4 days. They believe the Euro ensemble means is the best way to go.


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2014

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 07 2014 - 12Z TUE FEB 11 2014

...OVERVIEW...
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD THIS
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH A
DOMINANT RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BECOMES A
FLAT...BUT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DOWNSTREAM...THE RATHER
PERSISTENT TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA AND A RELOADING OF
COLD...CANADIAN AIRMASSES...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
SOUTHERN STREAM THAT STARTS OUT WITH GULF OF MEXICO
INFLUENCES...THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PACIFIC INFLUENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY (11 FEB 2014).

...PREFERENCES...
WPC CONTINUITY HAS BEEN PLANTED IN A UKMET/ECMWF CAMP...WHICH
SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE OF THE CATALYST FOR CHANGE (TRANSITION) IN
THIS NORTH AMERICAN FLOW PATTERN--THAT BEING--THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MUCH OF THE SPREAD BACK 4-7 DAYS AGO
WAS RELATED TO THE EROSION OR WEAKENING OF THIS EXPANSIVE RIDGE
ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANKS. AND FOR THE MOST PART... THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO BE "THE MORE CORRECT" GUIDANCE IN DETERMINING WHEN THE
TIMING OF THE EROSION WOULD OCCUR AS THE STRONG BUT SHARP
SHORTWAVE TRACKED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE LOWER 48. PER THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...THIS SHARP
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUKON TERRITORY (AT LAST
GLANCE_4/12Z TIME FRAME).

IN TERMS OF THE PRESENT...AND THE DAY 3-7 FORECAST AHEAD...THE
SPREAD ALOFT REMAINS TIED TO THE OUTCOME THIS SHARP SHORTWAVE AS
IT MIGRATES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES DAYS 3-4.
BY DAY 4...SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY-MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
ALOFT...LESS SHEARED...LIKE THE 4/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND ITS
MEAN...AND IN TURN...ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE AND COASTAL WAVE(S) TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING BUT DIFFUSE FRONTAL
DRAPE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THERE'LL BE A CONTINUED SHEARING OF
THIS WAVE...IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR INVOF 120W AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. BUT AT THE MOMENT...VERY LITTLE SUPPORTS THIS
NOTION. AND BECAUSE ALL THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THERE IS A 'GENERAL CONSENSUS' WITH YET ANOTHER
WINTER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY
(DAY4) AND TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY (DAY6).

I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLY
THE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. AND
BOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW
ALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'S
A GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6)
SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THE
FORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVER
THE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
TRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTIL
THEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW IN THE WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST SAT/D4 INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUN/D5. A WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST AND THEN EXIT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON/D6 AND WELL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY
TUE/D7. PRECIPITATION COULD BE ROBUST... OR COULD BE NEXT TO
NOTHING...FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

IN THE WEST... A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
ADVERTISED BY THE WEEKEND WITH LINGER EFFECTS INTO NEXT WEEK...
CENTERED ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ALL
ALONG THE COASTAL REGION OF WA/OR/CA WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAIN... AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CARRYOVER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY INTO OR/NV.

TEMPERATURES NEARLY CONUS-WIDE WILL STAY RELATIVELY COLD WITH ONLY
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.


VOJTESAK

Is this a good thing for Texas?

[wxman57]

Here are 12z GFS meteograms for Houston & Dallas-Ft. Worth. Cold Thu-Fri but no precip at all.

[Portastorm]

Is this a good thing for Texas?

I don't know if it is a good thing or bad thing ... it's just a thing!

What they (NWS national weather desk) are saying, essentially, is that they have little to no confidence in the GFS deterministic runs right now. They believe the depiction of the weather for the next several days is best captured by the European ensembles and the UKMET model. Both of those appear to have at least some light wintry precipitation for portions of central and north Texas on Thur-Fri as compared to the bone dry GFS.

I see wxman57 posted some 12z GFS meteograms. Heh, they're worth as much as a meteogram I would draw on my own.

[Tireman4]

Here are 12z GFS meteograms for Houston & Dallas-Ft. Worth. Cold Thu-Fri but no precip at all.

Umm sir. Did you not get the memo? The GFS runs for the next 3-4 days could be hooey.

[wxman57]

Believe what you want, Thursday-Friday is looking like a non-event as far as winter precip across Texas. You can't only believe the models when they show snow a week or two out then stop believing them 1-2 days away from an event as model skill increases considerably.

[TexasStorm]

Doesn't that spike in the temps on Saturday seem a little odd? Makes me think the GFS is not cooking with canola oil.

[orangeblood]

Is this a good thing for Texas?

I don't know if it is a good thing or bad thing ... it's just a thing!

What they (NWS national weather desk) are saying, essentially, is that they have little to no confidence in the GFS deterministic runs right now. They believe the depiction of the weather for the next several days is best captured by the European ensembles and the UKMET model. Both of those appear to have at least some light wintry precipitation for portions of central and north Texas on Thur-Fri as compared to the bone dry GFS.

I see wxman57 posted some 12z GFS meteograms. Heh, they're worth as much as a meteogram I would draw on my own.

Yes, the GFS deterministic is probably an outlier but Euro is trending towards the GFS, showing a weaker/further north system for later this week

[Tireman4]

Believe what you want, Thursday-Friday is looking like a non-event as far as winter precip across Texas. You can't only believe the models when they show snow a week or two out then stop believing them 1-2 days away from an event as model skill increases considerably.

To be fair, I did say "could" be. Heck, I do not know anything. I do know outside my window, it is rainy, wet and cool. Great running weather for me at 12 noon.

[Portastorm]

Believe what you want, Thursday-Friday is looking like a non-event as far as winter precip across Texas. You can't only believe the models when they show snow a week or two out then stop believing them 1-2 days away from an event as model skill increases considerably.

Oh c'mon man ... you know as well as anyone that some models capture the weather pattern better than others! You can read into the technical aspects of what the Weather Prediction Center said and understand the nuances better than any of us. They're throwing out the GFS. I didn't write that ... THEY DID!

I'll believe the model(s) which the weather pros tell me is working best and captures the actual weather best. You want to talk skill scores? Then you better ride the Euro or UKMET over the GFS as they continue to beat the GFS in the 5-day and 6-day range in the Northern Hemisphere. If the WPC and wxman57 tell me the GFS has this pattern nailed ... then so be it! I'll buy into that. But that's not what I'm seeing. Sorry.

[wxman57]

You want an ice storm? THIS is an ice storm that recently hit Slovenia:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/amazing-scenes-severe-storm-encases-slovenian-town-ice-1434997

The GFS may be having issues as far as the weather next week, but I think it looks reasonable for 1-2 days from now. NAM agrees, though it's quite a bit warmer than the 12Z GFS. Euro is in the same camp, too, as far as the weather across Texas this week.

[Ntxw]

GFS is virga and flurries, Canadian is virga and flurries followed by zonal flow. How's that for direct model output. Move along folks, nothing to see here.

[Portastorm]

You want an ice storm? THIS is an ice storm that recently hit Slovenia:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/amazing-scenes-severe-storm-encases-slovenian-town-ice-1434997

No thanks, I'm good.

And folks (those reading this) ... I can disagree with my good friend wxman57 but it doesn't take away from my frequently (and publicly) expressed appreciation and respect for him and for the time he gives to this forum. I am and will always be a big fan of his. We like to tease each other and it's all in good fun. All things being equal, I'm going to pretty much defer to his judgment and opinion on the weather. That is especially true during tropical season. He's forgotten more meteorology than I'll ever know.

For the record, I don't expect any major winter storm in Texas this week either. Earlier this week and last weekend I felt there was good potential for something significant. Don't believe it now. We may seem some freezing drizzle down here in south central Texas. And you want another shocker? I'm ready for warmer temperatures and some good, old-fashioned Texas severe weather this spring with lots of rain! Sounds like we have to wait until May due to a colder Gulf.

[Red Raider fan]

Wow, that ice storm in Slovenia is not what we need here at all. Yes it looks pretty, but very dangerous. Also, disaapointed in my Broncos in the Super Bowl, what a bust, but i am still an avid fan.

[Portastorm]

GFS is virga and flurries, Canadian is virga and flurries followed by zonal flow. How's that for direct model output. Move along folks, nothing to see here.

I'll move along when the Euro and UKMet tell me virga and flurries.

[TheProfessor]

You want an ice storm? THIS is an ice storm that recently hit Slovenia:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/amazing-scenes-severe-storm-encases-slovenian-town-ice-1434997

The GFS may be having issues as far as the weather next week, but I think it looks reasonable for 1-2 days from now. NAM agrees, though it's quite a bit warmer than the 12Z GFS. Euro is in the same camp, too, as far as the weather across Texas this week.

Wow, did they get hit by a 100ft wave just as the temperatures plummeted to -50 degrees. That's a lot of ice.

[Ntxw]

Ukmet is flurries and light snow for Red River region, maybe some virga too.

[Red Raider fan]

I tend to agree with Porta, tired of the potential for snow several days out to only becoming a possible freezeing rain or sleet event a few days out, to just bust. Kinda like the Super Bowl. All the hype leading up to the event and then........... well i hope you get my meaning, ready to start seeing warmer weather no more cold please, can't believe i'm turning to the dark side with wxman57.

[TheProfessor]

Wow, that ice storm in Slovenia is not what we need here at all. Yes it looks pretty, but very dangerous. Also, disaapointed in my Broncos in the Super Bowl, what a bust, but i am still an avid fan.

Well, if it were guaranteed that you couldn't lose power and that trees wouldn't break than I think a storm like that would be pretty cool.