Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

You can have all the summer you want after March 20th! Especially if you can deliver a solid 3" for us Houstonians that really want to see what it looks like for our yards/houses to be completely white. But PLEASE make sure there is enough rain with the heat!

I always have summer - not much to bargain with there. Next winter will be cold due to El Nino, huh? Remember that this winter was supposed to be warm and dry due to La Nina. I stopped that by taking control of the weather across Texas this winter. Do you think El Nino has a chance against me next winter (if I so desire)?

and remember El Nino of winter 2015/2016 was supposed to be wetter/cooler.....and we all know how that worked out, don't we?

Yeah still bitter about that.

Euro looks warmer and drier next Thursday

[Haris]

ERRRRR the 12z runs suck ! Hopefully the ensembles are more positive than the ugly euro and gfs

[orangeblood]

ERRRRR the 12z runs suck ! Hopefully the ensembles are more positive than the ugly euro and gfs

Well the ensembles don't look much better, the Arctic Air has an easy escape route out towards Eastern Canada...not an ideal setup when you see negative anomalies across Canada all the way into Greenland but if a S/W can dig far enough southwest it'll have plenty of cold air to tap into

[srainhoutx]

My hunch at day 10+, the ECMWF and Canada Ensembles likely will have a slightly better grasp on something close to realistic as the GFS and its ensemble schemes are not handling the MJO properly. That's been the case since late last Fall/early Winter.

[JDawg512]

No we really don't want to talk about this summer.

I'm already getting desperate for rain. If we don't see a good sign for rain soon I shall become enraged and switch to the angry version of myself!

[orangeblood]

My hunch at day 10+, the ECMWF and Canada Ensembles likely will have a slightly better grasp on something close to realistic as the GFS and its ensemble schemes are not handling the MJO properly. That's been the case since late last Fall/early Winter.

Unfortunately, it appears the EURO, Canadian and GFS ENS all look fairly similar in the 500 mb patterns days 10-15 but as we've discussed for years on here - we don't live a 500mb, the low level cold air will likely overwhelm the conus with a depiction like that

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro control run has several days of below freezing temperatures and precipitation in early February across much of TX. Euro Ensemble mean doesn't look anything like the control run.

[Ntxw]

And not to mention we are getting in range where model loses it, only to being back within 7 days. Countless times this winter

[orangeblood]

12z Euro control run has several days of below freezing temperatures and precipitation in early February across much of TX. Euro Ensemble mean doesn't look anything like the control run.

Yep, Euro control run is what we've been looking for all winter...deep southwestern trough with cross-polar flow

[Ralph's Weather]

ERRRRR the 12z runs suck ! Hopefully the ensembles are more positive than the ugly euro and gfs

Well the ensembles don't look much better, the Arctic Air has an easy escape route out towards Eastern Canada...not an ideal setup when you see negative anomalies across Canada all the way into Greenland but if a S/W can dig far enough southwest it'll have plenty of cold air to tap into

\As you said this is not ideal, but this set up would at least give us a fighting chance. The Pacific pattern dictates that N America will be cold and with the trough axis tilting to the SW there is ample opportunity for a digging shortwave. If we could manage a -NAO with the other players this would be a great pattern though.

[Stormcenter]

Way too early still to call anything definitive. Bottom line is it's going to get really cold again in 10 days or so. Another Winter event maybe?

[dhweather]

Here's the 0Z and 12Z GFS runs from Jan 20-24 , for 12Z Friday Feb 2. Back and forth, cold and not. Which will be right?

[Ralph's Weather]

Here's the 0Z and 12Z GFS runs from Jan 20-24 , for 12Z Friday Feb 2. Back and forth, cold and not. Which will be right?

The cold will win eventually as we have seen several times this winter though as has happened some this season the initial blast may slide east while we have to wait on the cold to just overwhelm and slide down the Plains. The cold is available. The key for me is if the trough does infact lean towards the SW, if so, we should have another winter storm.

[Quixotic]

I’m not afraid. It’s coming. The spread in the MJO amplitude is freaking out the global models. The ridge looks far enough west for a good Central trough. I think it will be a slow press though. The ridge in the west and in the east means the central part of the country will be the path of least resistance and I don’t see anything that will push it east. I like slow presses. Storms are more likely.

[bubba hotep]

I’m not afraid. It’s coming. The spread in the MJO amplitude is freaking out the global models. The ridge looks far enough west for a good Central trough. I think it will be a slow press though. The ridge in the west and in the east means the central part of the country will be the path of least resistance and I don’t see anything that will push it east. I like slow presses. Storms are more likely.

I tend to agree, also when you filter by ENSO you get the cold to pull back west some vs the unfiltered MJO analogs.

[Quixotic]

I’m not afraid. It’s coming. The spread in the MJO amplitude is freaking out the global models. The ridge looks far enough west for a good Central trough. I think it will be a slow press though. The ridge in the west and in the east means the central part of the country will be the path of least resistance and I don’t see anything that will push it east. I like slow presses. Storms are more likely.

I tend to agree, also when you filter by ENSO you get the cold to pull back west some vs the unfiltered MJO analogs.

I haven’t seen the MJO analogs. What years do we have? I think the closest to this year I’ve seen is 95-96 and 88-89

[Cpv17]

East coast gets flooded with cold air on the GFS. Not much headed towards us.

[Brent]

Euro doesnt even freeze at DFW

[South Texas Storms]

Euro doesnt even freeze at DFW

Yeah but it has the motherlode of arctic air heading south from Canada at the end of the run. 500mb pattern looks kinda similar to the 12z Euro control run.

[Ntxw]

Euro doesnt even freeze at DFW

Big highs in Canada next week and doesn't freeze from Euro. I say BS with that from it

I've heard this a few times this winter to know better!