Texas Winter 2017-2018

[srainhoutx]

32F at 4:00 in NW Harris County this morning. Forecast called for a low of 40F. Pacific air ehh...

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

32F at 4:00 in NW Harris County this morning. Forecast called for a low of 40F. Pacific air ehh...

Yeah, the lows have busted big here too the last few nights. I’m gonna lose some plants because of it.

[Ralph's Weather]

32F at 4:00 in NW Harris County this morning. Forecast called for a low of 40F. Pacific air ehh...

A little Pacific front brought us 25 yesterday and 27 so far this morning. Yea, models showing no freeze next week is laughable.

[Ralph's Weather]

Nothing about the current pattern screams cold yet we are. Next week has almost everything for cold. Only thing I see missing is a +NAO allowing some cools to slide east, but models seem to want to send ur all east which will not happen.

Heck this morning the 6Z GFS had me at 40 at hour 6, reality is anywhere from 24 to 41 in my area right now.

[Ntxw]

I’m not afraid. It’s coming. The spread in the MJO amplitude is freaking out the global models. The ridge looks far enough west for a good Central trough. I think it will be a slow press though. The ridge in the west and in the east means the central part of the country will be the path of least resistance and I don’t see anything that will push it east. I like slow presses. Storms are more likely.

I tend to agree, also when you filter by ENSO you get the cold to pull back west some vs the unfiltered MJO analogs.

I haven’t seen the MJO analogs. What years do we have? I think the closest to this year I’ve seen is 95-96 and 88-89

Years with MJO amplitude going into February include moving into p7, but not limited to

2010



1989



1986



1978 (this remains so far the closest resemblance due to movement and amplitude)



2018 so far

[srainhoutx]

Keep a close eye on the February 7th or so timeframe. The ECMWF EPS and the CPC Day 11+ Super Ensembles as well as the 06Z GFS suggests a deep/cold full latitude trough stretching back to our SW. The deterministic 06Z GFS has a closed meandering Upper Low over the Baja. If that verifies and the cold air is in place as we think it will be, that is a recipe for winter weather worries across Texas in early February.

[weatherdude1108]

32F at 4:00 in NW Harris County this morning. Forecast called for a low of 40F. Pacific air ehh...

Yeah, the lows have busted big here too the last few nights. I’m gonna lose some plants because of it.

I've noticed the lows seem to be dipping lower than what has been forecasted here too this season, more times than not. This Winter seems to be relatively cooler than the last several Winters here.

The cold seems to be more persistent (instead of swinging up to the 70s a couple days later). The cold behind a front sticks around longer between cold fronts. Must be the snowpack/northern latitude high support(?).
I just know I have been wearing my jacket/warmup more often this year than the past several.

[CaptinCrunch]

it was 25 this morning 29 yesterday morning, so yeah temps have been several degrees below the forecast low the last several days.
With 7 days left in January the monthly mean is -2.2

[Snowman67]

32F at 4:00 in NW Harris County this morning. Forecast called for a low of 40F. Pacific air ehh...

I was just thinking the same thing. Tomball was 32 earlier when I checked. Man, the models are really having a hard time with surface temps (even in the near term)...

[orangeblood]

Keep a close eye on the February 7th or so timeframe. The ECMWF EPS and the CPC Day 11+ Super Ensembles as well as the 06Z GFS suggests a deep/cold full latitude trough stretching back to our SW. The deterministic 06Z GFS has a closed meandering Upper Low over the Baja. If that verifies and the cold air is in place as we think it will be, that is a recipe for winter weather worries across Texas in early February.

Latest MJO forecast appears to be headed down a very similar path to mid-late December 2017...and remember, the long range guidance was wanting to hang the trough back to the SW for late Dec 2017 as well (it's what got everyone excited about a Christmas Winter Storm) but in reality, the trough was much more progressive and core of the action directed towards the eastern US. I'm not buying these troughs hanging back in the long-range guidance until I see enough of a pattern shift to say otherwise. Unfortunately, the MJO progression is taking a very similar trajectory but hopefully, with the winter being more mature and/or the MJO gaining more amplitude, we'll have a different outcome this time around

[srainhoutx]

Keep a close eye on the February 7th or so timeframe. The ECMWF EPS and the CPC Day 11+ Super Ensembles as well as the 06Z GFS suggests a deep/cold full latitude trough stretching back to our SW. The deterministic 06Z GFS has a closed meandering Upper Low over the Baja. If that verifies and the cold air is in place as we think it will be, that is a recipe for winter weather worries across Texas in early February.

Latest MJO forecast appears to be headed down a very similar path to mid-late December 2017...and remember, the long range guidance was wanting to hang the trough back to the SW for late Dec 2017 as well (it's what got everyone excited about a Christmas Winter Storm) but in reality, the trough was much more progressive and core of the action directed towards the eastern US. I'm not buying these troughs hanging back in the long-range until I see enough of a pattern shift to say otherwise. Unfortunately, the MJO progression is taking a very similar trajectory but hopefully, with the winter being more mature, that we'll have a different outcome this time around

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

I know it's been a tough year for you N Texas folks and frankly most of Texas when it comes to moisture at anytime. I tend to pay closer attention to GLAAM and PNA if all the other indicators are lining up. I suspect we will get a +PNA near the early//mid February timeframe, although not the positive. The snow event in early December across the Hill Country, S, S Central and SE Texas had a slightly positive PNA that allowed a bit of a SW upper trough. As I have expressed several times this winter, this is likely the most challenging attempt to forecast precipitation and where it may fall during cold weather events in my 40+ years of following weather very closely. For the casual weather enthusiast, there are so many features involved and why one must investigate all the features carefully when attempting to dip a toe into Long Range Forecasting.

[Ntxw]

My hope is the Pacific ridge axis will be further to the west than earlier in the season. If we can get any semblance of an STJ and not so northern stream dominated that would be great!

I don't think northern Texas will blank this winter, it just takes one. But first lets get the cold then we can talk snow.

[Tejas89]

Pretty depressing that snow/sleet has become such a novelty for DFW. 3 years running without anything of real significance. Crazy... used to count on 2-3 good events each winter.

[Ralph's Weather]

My 30 minute drive to the office this morning featured some crazy temp variations. In a 2 mile stretch it went from 26 to 37 (along a major highway with no terrain variation) and by the time I reached downtown Tyler it was 44.

[Yukon Cornelius]

My 30 minute drive to the office this morning featured some crazy temp variations. In a 2 mile stretch it went from 26 to 37 (along a major highway with no terrain variation) and by the time I reached downtown Tyler it was 44.

We didn't even hit freezing this morning, which is strange considering our relation to the river and 0 concrete. The forecast was for 32 and the last I saw, our temp was 36.

[orangeblood]

My 30 minute drive to the office this morning featured some crazy temp variations. In a 2 mile stretch it went from 26 to 37 (along a major highway with no terrain variation) and by the time I reached downtown Tyler it was 44.

It's why I wouldn't put much stock into the models "missing" this cold...raditional cooling with small low level pockets of cold (literally tens of feet off the ground) is almost impossible to model

[wxman22]

I think this is the storm Srain was referring to,12z GFS is a little more aggressive with it fwiw.

[Ntxw]

Holy smokes 1070Hp in Canada on the GFS

We've seen glimpses of the potential extremes on the guidance past few days.

[srainhoutx]

Holy smokes 1070Hp in Canada on the GFS

We've seen glimpses of the potential extremes on the guidance past few days.

-40F across the Montana Front Rage is nothing to sneeze at either...

[boca]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

NAO is no longer tanking as of today forecast.