Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[txagwxman]

Oh yea. Pensacola, Baton Rouge, and Mobile all got snow.
NONE here in Tomball. Austin/Tomball are due big.

BTW, Jeff Masters found evidence of a bigger blizzard in 1717 in the NE...4-5 feet of snow.

[david30]

Can you explain about gfs trying to go el nino in the far back? Thanks

Today is not my day...Atlanta got snow...more snow for them on Monday. More snow Tenn/N. Miss/Alabama Sunday night.

18z GFS now trying to go El Nino pattern in the far back, with block retrograding over Western Canada. I don't want that yet.

[Ntxw]

Oh yea. Pensacola, Baton Rouge, and Mobile all got snow.
NONE here in Tomball. Austin/Tomball are due big.

BTW, Jeff Masters found evidence of a bigger blizzard in 1717 in the NE...4-5 feet of snow.

That's insane, but im sure during the mini ice ages, there were a lot more snow falling (given the winter duration would be longer there for the chances of getting bigger events higher) even in the southern United States. And yeah, you guys are waaaay overdue.

[DentonGal]

Can you explain about gfs trying to go el nino in the far back? Thanks

Today is not my day...Atlanta got snow...more snow for them on Monday. More snow Tenn/N. Miss/Alabama Sunday night.

18z GFS now trying to go El Nino pattern in the far back, with block retrograding over Western Canada. I don't want that yet.

I'd like to know more about this too. Thanks in advance!

[Ntxw]

The NAM showed some interesting developments...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

I see another nor'easter blasting the northeast, am I missing something?

[srainhoutx]

Severe Blocking. Notice the upper air pattern retrograding W. PNA Ridge starting to show up. Cold air will likely build E of the Rockies this week IMHO. Let's see what the empirical guidance suggest.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Severe Blocking. Notice the upper air pattern retrograding W. PNA Ridge starting to show up. Cold air will likely build E of the Rockies this week IMHO. Let's see what the empirical guidance suggest.

Ah yeah I see, looks like this week was only the tip of the iceberg. Many of the guidance has showed this set up.

[david30]

Hope moisture comes with that. My area is one of the few after today that has seen nothing substantial. I am too far north of i-20 and too far south of TN so far this year. Just need one juicy storm to be about 150 miles north of where this last low formed although with the baroclinic zone where it is in the gulf not too sure this can happen.

:uarrow: Severe Blocking. Notice the upper air pattern retrograding W. PNA Ridge starting to show up. Cold air will likely build E of the Rockies this week IMHO. Let's see what the empirical guidance suggest.

[HockeyTx82]

[Ntxw]

That's an amazing swath of a foot+ for this part of the world. Even more amazing that storm decided to sit in the core of a major population center.

[wxgirl69]

Have not been on for awhile and I do not have time to read back.. What is in store for the next 2 weeks here in SE Houston/

[Ntxw]

Have not been on for awhile and I do not have time to read back.. What is in store for the next 2 weeks here in SE Houston/

Most of the models are showing lots of cold coming in waves. Expect chilly weather continuing with stormy periods. No snow or ice for Houston\S\E Texas in the immediate future, that could change mid to late month.

[wxgirl69]

Have not been on for awhile and I do not have time to read back.. What is in store for the next 2 weeks here in SE Houston/

Most of the models are showing lots of cold coming in waves. Expect chilly weather continuing with stormy periods. No snow or ice for Houston\S\E Texas in the immediate future, that could change mid to late month.

I must admit.. This winter has been very cold... Curious to see what this hurricane season will bring????

[Ntxw]

Have not been on for awhile and I do not have time to read back.. What is in store for the next 2 weeks here in SE Houston/

Most of the models are showing lots of cold coming in waves. Expect chilly weather continuing with stormy periods. No snow or ice for Houston\S\E Texas in the immediate future, that could change mid to late month.

I must admit.. This winter has been very cold... Curious to see what this hurricane season will bring????

El Nino suppressed hurricane forming conditions last year, this year el nino is expected to be gone. If that comes true, the chances of an active hurricane season is higher.

[Texas2Florida]

I've been out of town in rainy cold Daytona Beach FL for the Daytona 500 since Wednesday, so I missed the big event ..anyways..Don't have much time to look so can anyone fill me in on Sun/Mon DFW weather? Flying back and I really don't have time for cancelled flights! Am I correct in seeing a bit of another major event in about a week and a half?

[somethingfunny]

The models really nailed this one with the bull's eye over DFW. We need to give credit where it's due. I figured the 4-6" coming out of the Shreveport office sounded good, but never in my wildest dreams did I think we'd have an all-time record-setting snow.








Taken at 9:30 AM this morning after several hours of melt.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi9TL8SmT2k[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rEz--Xqw9A[/youtube]

[txagwxman]

Going to take a while for these clouds to burn off over SE TX looking at the Ruc soundings, looks just like a San Diego marine layer.

Man, what a difference between the ECMWF suite, and the GFS suite of models. ECMWF keeps this pattern locked....while the GFS ensembles suggest a break down with Pacific flow... ECMWF still hinting at rain/snow mix next Sat Austin/Longview line....not Houston...

BTW this proves that H20 is such a stronger greenhouse gas compared to CO2. Dallas stayed in fog all night and couldn't radiate into the 20s even with the snow cover. H20>>>>>CO2 in the IR spectrum (Obviously with fog there is a lot more H20 molecules per cubic meter of air too).

[Portastorm]

Against my counselor's advice, I did look at the GFS and Euro model runs this morning. But it's ok friends ... I'm "off the ledge" now. The GFS 12-step program is helping!

Clear difference between the two with the Euro much more bullish about wintry weather next weekend in Texas. FWIW, the HPC is going with the Euro/Euro ensembles and saying they match the current pattern much better than the 0z GFS runs.

[Portastorm]

I don't believe I have EVER seen this issued for my area of the state. Interesting.

----------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
813 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2010

...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING...

.LIGHT WINDS...SATURATED GROUNDS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE DENSE FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LEXINGTON TO AUSTIN TO
ROUND MOUNTAIN TO LLANO LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE
FREEZING AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 10 AM CST.

TXZ171>173-190-192-194-131600-
/O.NEW.KEWX.ZF.Y.0001.100213T1413Z-100213T1600Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-BLANCO-TRAVIS-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...BLANCO...
AUSTIN...GIDDINGS
813 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2010

...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS
MORNING.

VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN DENSE
FREEZING FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING AND FOG
WILL DISSIPATE BY 10 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MEANS DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. THE FOG MAY DEPOSIT A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. IF DRIVING...
SLOW DOWN...USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. BE ALERT FOR ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

[txagwxman]

Yea that 53F DFW from the NWS yesterday for today is going to bust badly.