Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

My Texas Tech Red Raider sophomore sent me a text this morning describing his Lubbock morning weather of 10 degrees/-6 wind chill as "angry, bitter, unethical cold."

Ah yes, a chip off the old block!

[Tireman4]

Let me echo Porta's sentiments...thank you so much to Wxman 57, Jeff, Air Force Met and all the pro mets that participate on this forum. Without you, it would not be the same. Happy Weatherperson's Day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[wxman57]

Glad to contribute. All I want for my National Weatherman's Day present is highs in the 90s this weekend (in Houston).

[Tireman4]

Glad to contribute. All I want for my National Weatherman's Day present is highs in the 90s this weekend (in Houston).

Ha. No. Thank you for asking. Now, good luck to your Aggies on signing day!!!!

[weatherguy425]

My Texas Tech Red Raider sophomore sent me a text this morning describing his Lubbock morning weather of 10 degrees/-6 wind chill as "angry, bitter, unethical cold."

Ah yes, a chip off the old block!

And, actual temps are coming in colder than even the most recent 0z & 06 global runs indicated. Thank you snow pack to our north. Our weather-maker (future y'alls) arrives this afternoon, and sticks around through Thursday afternoon. Could see 2 - 4 inches of nice wind-blown, powdery snow by tomorrow afternoon north of Midland and west of Abilene. But the lack of good moisture content will certainly keep 'actual observational measurements low'.



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of Weatherguy425 and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Tcu101]

Glad to contribute. All I want for my National Weatherman's Day present is highs in the 90s this weekend (in Houston).

Best I can do for your gift



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[TexasStorm]

Ready for this cold to be gone. Only thing keeping me warm right now is the thought of riding the Hotter'N Hell in August. Even winter riding clothing does not help in these temps.

Looking at the extended GFS looks like we may get back to some warmish weather around Friday timeframe of next week.

So you guys have fun these next 8 days then pass the thermostat back to wxman57.

[wxman57]

Let's take a look at the 00Z and 06Z MOS guidance for Lubbock:

Note that the 15Z/9AM temp in Lubbock was 11F

GFS:
00Z - Low of 8F and a 9am temp of 9F
06Z - Low of 8F and a 9am temp of 10F

ETA:
00Z - Low of 10F and a 9am temp of 10F
06Z - not available

For Houston, the 9am temp at IAH was 40F
GFS:
00Z - 40F at 9am
06Z - 40F at 9am

ETA
00Z - 41F at 9am

Based on the above, I would not conclude that the current temperature in Lubbock is not significantly colder than the 00Z and 06Z models. In fact, they were just a tad cooler than what is being observed.

[Portastorm]

Heh ...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1011 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE DROPS WERE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MINOR CHANGES WERE
ALSO MADE TO THE WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DESPITE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC HAS IT ANALYZED STRONGER
THAN ANY OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY
HAVE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT FOR TOMORROW. THESE CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

DUNN

[TheProfessor]

THE SREF must be one of the models on the wetter side. It has Dallas recieving .75 inches of snow.

[Portastorm]

THE SREF must be one of the models on the wetter side. It has Dallas recieving .75 inches of snow.

Yeah, the 9z SREF has between .25 and .50 inches of a wintry mix for Austin by Friday afternoon. That is much "wetter" than any other model guidance I have seen. I just don't know how accurate the SREF is. I've tracked it during the last few events and it seems to me (albeit this is anecdotal) that it is too bullish usually on precip amounts. It did a good job on precip type. But the SREF is definitely an outlier at the moment.

[txprog]

DFW is -5.7F below normal at the moment. After the next few days first week of Feb could end up between 7-10F below normal and next week will likely be well below normal making the first half of the month well below normal. DJF is guaranteed to be below to well below (hello NOAA). Barring an all out heat wave the last 2 weeks (no more freezez, 70s/80s/90s) this winter DJF could end up top 10 and give 09/10 a run for its money at 8.

January was just .6 below, and if Feb winds up below normal DFW will have experienced below normal temps for the Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb months. When is the last time that happened? But remember, Feb 2011 with extreme cold, snow and ice early wound up slightly above normal as winter came to an abrupt end.

It will very interesting to see how this plays out. I know we all want snow with the cold; but I am a winter weather lover, and I'll take the cold if that is all there is to be had. Around here, summer is so hot, so relentless, the cold days of winter - with or without snow - are a pleasure.

[weatherdude1108]

My Texas Tech Red Raider sophomore sent me a text this morning describing his Lubbock morning weather of 10 degrees/-6 wind chill as "angry, bitter, unethical cold."

Ah yes, a chip off the old block!

I'm a Texas Tech Red Raider myself. Nice to have a fellow Red Raider (and those associated with the scarlet and the black) on the board! Keeping with the Winter thread, the coldest day I have ever personally experienced was in Lubbock, while I was in school. It was 4 degrees F, with a wind chill of -15.

[gpsnowman]

Impressive cold today. Temps continue to drop in North Texas. Currently 25 degrees in my neck of the woods. If the cloud cover persists it will be difficult to reach 30 degrees this afternoon. Highs were forecasted to be in the low/mid 30's today. Now, about that moisture?

[wxman57]

January was just .6 below, and if Feb winds up below normal DFW will have experienced below normal temps for the Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb months. When is the last time that happened? But remember, Feb 2011 with extreme cold, snow and ice early wound up slightly above normal as winter came to an abrupt end... snip

Such a nice thought! Very cold and icy in February 2011 followed by quite a spring and summer!

[South Texas Storms]

Next week's system continues to look like a possible widespread rain event for a large part of Texas. Hopefully that system can give all of us at least an inch of beneficial rainfall!

[wxman57]

On another note, here's a meteogram off the 12Z GFS for Dallas-Ft. Worth:

[gpsnowman]

On another note, here's a meteogram off the 12Z GFS for Dallas-Ft. Worth:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs12zfeb5.gif

That looks nice but will it be that cold? Either way it looks wet and that is just fine.

[wxman57]

On another note, here's a meteogram off the 12Z GFS for Dallas-Ft. Worth:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs12zfeb5.gif

That looks nice but will it be that cold? Either way it looks wet and that is just fine.

Note that the precip ends before the temperature drops below freezing next week - at least according to the 12z GFS.

[orangeblood]

On another note, here's a meteogram off the 12Z GFS for Dallas-Ft. Worth:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs12zfeb5.gif

That looks nice but will it be that cold? Either way it looks wet and that is just fine.

Note that the precip ends before the temperature drops below freezing next week - at least according to the 12z GFS.

hmmmm, it's interesting to me that you've conveniently failed to mention these GFS meteograms you continue to post, over the past few days, have had temps 4-5 degrees too warm for today's temps. With the snowcover across the plains, they are continually underestimating the temps so you can make a logical conclusion that they will do same early next week with snowcover still in place.

Happy Weatherperson's Day!!


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.