Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

The Texas thread keeps me going during the winter months even though I'm in Florida I enjoy reading the posts, until hurricane season starts again.

We welcome everybody . Some of us will post broadscale pattern vs just Texas sometimes.

There is a good chance +PNA will rear its head in Feb. +PNA is a good indicator for some cold into Florida even without the NAO if you got a cold source region.

[Ivanhater]

The Texas thread keeps me going during the winter months even though I'm in Florida I enjoy reading the posts, until hurricane season starts again.

You are not the only one. This is the place to go during the Winter before Hurricane season begins. Usually, if something is brewing down the pike for Texas, the deep south folks start to perk up

[Ntxw]

Think the MJO broke the GEFS. Record magnitude? Euro is more reasonable but we are riding this signal to deliver the whole way

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Some of the coldest weather on the state's record books happened in February.

Does this have the potential to rival some of that?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Think the MJO broke the GEFS. Record magnitude? Euro is more reasonable but we are riding this signal to deliver the whole way

Wow, that doesn’t look like a Winter MJO chart

[Brent]

Oh you know he's cooking up a 1980 or 2011 like summer for us in his lab.

You left out 1998, second hottest summer next to 1980.

Bring it..

Lets not lol

Last summer with all the rain was pretty perfect up here

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

You left out 1998, second hottest summer next to 1980.

Bring it..

Lets not lol

Last summer with all the rain was pretty perfect up here

I’d prefer hot and dry only because it would shut down the tropics for Texas. The coast needs a full summer this year with none of that non sense.

[Cpv17]

Here we go guys! This is pretty great news if you ask me and love cold weather. The CPC is onboard with cold right down the plains into Texas!



Maybe some moisture to work with too?

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is still a little short next weekend but some kind of strong front still on the table. It has 1045-1048mb coming down which is respectable blast that I think should trend colder. 500mb s/w has a lot of time yet to trend west and south, perhaps.

Behind lurks the behemoth HP

[missygirl810]

Here we go guys! This is pretty great news if you ask me and love cold weather. The CPC is onboard with cold right down the plains into Texas!



Maybe some moisture to work with too?

Too bad the precip says normal. Better than below normal though lol.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That 1070 MB high had a front in Texas and it wasnt even close to reaching the US border yet, wow.

[Ntxw]

Some of the coldest weather on the state's record books happened in February.

Does this have the potential to rival some of that?

1899 is the mother of all outbreaks in recorded US history. Nothing indicates that kind of cold air at this time (or even in our lifetimes at this point ). -60s were found in Montana in that outbreak. Assiniboia in what is today Saskatchewan recorded 1064mb, similar to that of 1983.



Only when we start seeing 1060mb + along the US/Canadian border can we talk historic. Modeled a few times but have come up short. So if you think about it that's once a century.

For reference we've had 2 big major highs this winter so far. 1050mb around New Year's, and 1052mb (per ESRL reanalysis) on Jan 15th

[dhweather]

-60's ? Bet that brought pain in the Assiniboia!

[MississippiWx]

-60's ? Bet that brought pain in the Assiniboia!

A real Cat 5 in the Assiniboia!

[South Texas Storms]

I really hope we don't see any temperatures colder than we've seen with the past few outbreaks this winter in February. There were several people who had their pipes burst with the last arctic blast a few weeks ago here in Houston. Thankfully mine didn't.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

1978 - Big east coast storm with REALLY cold air behind it as MJO entered phase 8 the first week of Feb. Late Jan had another big East coast storm while in phase 7. With this system, some energy was hanging back in the SW. Looks like Ntx may have had snow with this system. After crossing Texas, system phased near Tennessee and turned into a MONSTER. Is this that famed strong low pressure in '78?


1986 - Phase 7 in late January, full latitude trough to the GOM, big Nor'Easter. 850 0C line down to West Palm Beach, FL. Nothing really in Tx with this storm.
Phase 8 first week into Feb, around the 7th, upper level high poking into the Beaufort Sea just north of Alaska with a trough digging into the SW. Setup looks really cold but with this system, it doesnt seem like much cold air was present to bring down.
Creeps into Phase 1 around the 11th, the trough is now deeper over the central allowing the 850 0C line to reach the Gulf Coast.

1989 - Phase 7 entering the month of Feb lead to VERY cold air into the Pacific NW. -40 C 850 temps into Montana, eventually, -30C 850 temps creep into Nebraska with energy coming out of the SW. Phase 7 didnt last long with this example but this air was historically cold.

2010 - Do i need to remind the dallas folk? Phase 8 headed towards phase had a very active southerly jet stream. Air for the storm that broguht record snowfall wasn't terribly cold, timing was just right. I believe some areas had 14" of snow from this storm. I remember it well because i drove into Dallas on the day of the storm for the weekend. It was like being at a ski resort walking around anywhere with HUGE snow piles everywhere lol.


This was a rough idea of what happened during the times Ntx highlighted. These phases are yelling cold signals. What specifically i feel like is hard to determine with these examples.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... 00reg.html

This website is the best example of where the jet stream is according to the MJO and day of the year. Highly recommend it.

Reanalysis of storms was done here.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Some of the coldest weather on the state's record books happened in February.

Does this have the potential to rival some of that?

1899 is the mother of all outbreaks in recorded US history. Nothing indicates that kind of cold air at this time (or even in our lifetimes at this point ). -60s were found in Montana in that outbreak. Assiniboia in what is today Saskatchewan recorded 1064mb, similar to that of 1983.



Only when we start seeing 1060mb + along the US/Canadian border can we talk historic. Modeled a few times but have come up short. So if you think about it that's once a century.

For reference we've had 2 big major highs this winter so far. 1050mb around New Year's, and 1052mb (per ESRL reanalysis) on Jan 15th

Looking at those maps taught me how to understand how to tread a 500 MB chart.

Last HP barreled into texas from the trough. New years HP bleeded into Texas. I love for them to barrel into texas but the wind is BRUTAL when they shoot down the plains. Beggars cant be choosers i guess!

[Brent]

I really hope we don't see any temperatures colder than we've seen with the past few outbreaks this winter in February. There were several people who had their pipes burst with the last arctic blast a few weeks ago here in Houston. Thankfully mine didn't.

I really dont care if we see record cold I'd rather have snow from more marginal temps

[South Texas Storms]

I really hope we don't see any temperatures colder than we've seen with the past few outbreaks this winter in February. There were several people who had their pipes burst with the last arctic blast a few weeks ago here in Houston. Thankfully mine didn't.

I really dont care if we see record cold I'd rather have snow from more marginal temps

I agree. Snow with temps near freezing are much better than dry with temps below 20.

[orangeblood]

With the EPO appearing to turn negative around the first of Feb along with the MJO entering Phase 7, the cold should center itself right where we want it - down the front range and into the central plains. Now, if it continues its trek into Phase 8, we probably see it shift over to the east coast. The real interesting aspect of this is the potential in middle to late Feb because with all of this bitterly cold air around, a continued trek into Phase 1,2 would overwhelm the country and lock in a pretty remarkable end to winter through at least the first of March. But could be negated if the EPO turns positive again..-EPO/MJO tandem is key!!