Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

1989 - Phase 7 entering the month of Feb lead to VERY cold air into the Pacific NW. -40 C 850 temps into Montana, eventually, -30C 850 temps creep into Nebraska with energy coming out of the SW. Phase 7 didnt last long with this example but this air was historically cold.

February (not December) 1989 was a near miss glancing blow. Yet it was a spectacular blast in these parts. DFW got down to 10F after being entombed in ice. Much forgotten event because of what happened later that year.

In fact Feb 1989 holds the North American high pressure record 1079.6mb of that outbreak. Alaska had 1078.6mb which is a US record. The 500mb pattern did not allow the full crushing blow of this HP as it weakened in the north rather than hold its strength southward. Still what was left, was quite a show.

The 500mb flow is not always representative of the HP strength, though there is some correlation. Density of the cold air matters too.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS keeps all of the cold temps up across the northern U.S. and Canada. Ridge sets up over the southern U.S.

[Brent]

0z GFS keeps all of the cold temps up across the northern U.S. and Canada. Ridge sets up over the southern U.S.

wow shorts weather on the 0z GFS



The CMC is mostly above normal too

[Cpv17]

0z GFS keeps all of the cold temps up across the northern U.S. and Canada. Ridge sets up over the southern U.S.

Pretty boring run. Not much precipitation either.

[Brent]

DFW pushes 80 this run

The CMC Is well into the 70s on Super Bowl Sunday

[South Texas Storms]

It sure would be something if the 0z GFS operational run verified and we just had above normal temps for the first half of February. I doubt the GFS will be right though.

Meanwhile the 0z GFS Ensemble is showing the cold air plunging down the Rockies in early February. Yeah...I think the 0z GFS Operational run is an outlier.

[Ntxw]

It's classic guidance holding it up north. I don't believe it though, when has that happened this winter? Too dense, and too much of it. I find it humorous

It sees the zonal coast to coast upper flow in the S US and thinks that will hold it all back. Don't think so.

[Cerlin]

Getting a brief shower in Frisco. This is a nice surprise.

[Brent]

Even the Euro is not cold

lol

It's not that warm either but still

[bubba hotep]

06z 3k NAM is juiced up with widespread 0.5"+ for the DFW area.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Feels like a spring morning. 51 and humid. Forecasted 70s for a couple days next week....Come back winter!

[bubba hotep]

[WinterMax]

Hello, Max here, been lurking, decided to register, very interesting forum here. I'm in South Louisiana, and I have been winter weather obsessed all my life I don't know much about reading mosels, but enjoy reading the experts here. Thanks for allowing me to join you.

[Tireman4]

Hello, Max here, been lurking, decided to register, very interesting forum here. I'm in South Louisiana, and I have been winter weather obsessed all my life I don't know much about reading mosels, but enjoy reading the experts here. Thanks for allowing me to join you.

Welcome WinterMax to our family. It can be very fun and crazy at times. Make sure to put where you live in your profile so the pro and amateur mets can help answer your questions better when/or you ask about weather in your part of the state.

[orangeblood]

It's classic guidance holding it up north. I don't believe it though, when has that happened this winter? Too dense, and too much of it. I find it humorous

It sees the zonal coast to coast upper flow in the S US and thinks that will hold it all back. Don't think so.

Yep, pretty entertaining watching 1050 plus Arctic HP's going due south than make an abrupt 90 deg turn due east....not happening. We can get a decent clue on 500mb patterns and potential HP strength but models won't have a clue on temperature output. With this type of setup, Not even sure if the Ensembles can even help us with temps past 7 days either

EPO will press this cold south with time and for the first time this winter...a pretty impressive -PNA/-EPO combo. If I had to guess, that combo is what the models are having major issues with

Feb 2011 and Late Feb 2015 had that combo and worked out very well for parts of Texas

[WinterMax]

Welcome WinterMax to our family. It can be very fun and crazy at times. Make sure to put where you live in your profile so the pro and amateur mets can help answer your questions better when/or you ask about weather in your part of the state.

Thanks ! I did include my location on profile now, thanks

[WinterMax]

Ive had snow twice this winter in South Louisiana, right at 3" in December, and 2" on the 16th, so while I hope for 1 more, I'm not setting my expectations too high, 3 snow events in 1 winter here would possibly be a record.

[bubba hotep]

12z 3k NAM trended pretty close to the Euro with a shift east but still looks really good for lots of areas:

[CaptinCrunch]

Welcome Wintermax

It's fun to see the crackhead models on the 7 to 10 day runs........They will solber up and see the light. Superbowl weekend could be the start of a very cold week, going to suck for folks heading up to Minnesota, hope they like negitive temps....

[Portastorm]

Hello, Max here, been lurking, decided to register, very interesting forum here. I'm in South Louisiana, and I have been winter weather obsessed all my life I don't know much about reading mosels, but enjoy reading the experts here. Thanks for allowing me to join you.

Welcome WinterMax! Good to have you here and don't be a stranger. Feel free to chime in. You'll find that Texans and Louisianans on this forum, and especially this thread, are like peas in a pod.