Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

its a snow profile porta, remember the chart is diagonal, it will be all below freezing. Quite a good snowmaking profile if there was sufficient moisture, powder.

Thanks ... I'm learning that ... in front of everyone! I've never been good with Skew-T's. But you know what? This is good. Hopefully everyone here who is not familiar with Skew-T's is learning something. Ideally we want to have a strong group of folks who can access weather tools and understand them enough to engage in intelligent discussion.

[wxman57]

its a snow profile porta, remember the chart is diagonal, it will be all below freezing. Quite a good snowmaking profile if there was sufficient moisture, powder.

DFW is high ratio snow, again with sufficient moisture

Definitely not freezing rain or sleet, but there isn't much moisture indicated on that DFW 18Z plot.

[CaptinCrunch]

Latest from NWS FTW



I think this may go up later tonight.....

[iorange55]

My best guess (and it is just a guess) is there will be more snow than currently expected. Obviously nothing major, but I wouldn't be surprised if the "dusting" is closer to an inch. Hopefully it's enough to make things look pretty, we deserve to look at something while we freeze our toes off.

[Ntxw]

its a snow profile porta, remember the chart is diagonal, it will be all below freezing. Quite a good snowmaking profile if there was sufficient moisture, powder.

DFW is high ratio snow, again with sufficient moisture

Definitely not freezing rain or sleet, but there isn't much moisture indicated on that DFW 18Z plot.

Yes sir I meant if there was. It just needs to be a little moist at the lower levels and it could be interesting.

[Portastorm]

EWX remains unfazed by the non-US 12z model guidance. Pretty much the same forecast/comments since yesterday. We shall see.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
325 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE ACROSS MOST AREAS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
TEXAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE MAY DEVELOP
ON WINDSHIELDS AND OTHER EXPOSED OBJECTS...BUT AT THIS TIME
ROADWAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED. WE/LL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE INTO
THE MID 30S HILL COUNTRY TO MID 40S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT... COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE AS NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WE EXPECT A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE COLD SURFACE AIR SERVE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOST AREAS DROP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. WE COULD SEE
A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH) THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS. PLEASE SEE OUR
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND NOON
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO NEAR 40
ALONG/EAST OF I-35. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AS WESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN PUSHING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO AFFECT THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW... WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. IF SUBSEQUENT
MODEL DATA CONTINUES THE CURRENT TREND...WE/LL NEED TO INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINING OVER NORTH TEXAS.
A FAIRLY STOUT WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON WHAT TRANSPIRES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY.

[Tcu101]

its a snow profile porta, remember the chart is diagonal, it will be all below freezing. Quite a good snowmaking profile if there was sufficient moisture, powder.

DFW is high ratio snow, again with sufficient moisture

Definitely not freezing rain or sleet, but there isn't much moisture indicated on that DFW 18Z plot.

Yes sir I meant if there was. It just needs to be a little moist at the lower levels and it could be interesting.

Good luck finding the moisture 200+ Miles off the Texas coast ... 53.5 Degree water temps and 44.3 degree dewpoint

[DonWrk]

19z HRRR has a few decent bands that come through with some of it being moderate at times.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The soundings from the 19Z RAP look pretty good for light snow across north Texas.

[Ntxw]

Good luck finding the moisture 200+ Miles off the Texas coast ... 53.5 Degree water temps and 44.3 degree dewpoint

Direct model output is virga and flurries, so correct dry is what they have.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS COLD WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
HAS CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED THAT THIS FEATURE IS STRONGER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE IMAGERY ITSELF WHICH SHOWS A COMPACT POTENT VORTEX DIGGING
ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA. AS IT MOVES INTO THE BIG BEND
REGION LATER TONIGHT...SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE FROM BOTH THE
TOP DOWN AND FROM LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION AS 850MB FLOW
VEERS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE THERMAL PROFILE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
SO PRECIP TYPE IS REALLY NOT IN QUESTION THIS TIME AROUND.
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INDICATES A DEEP SATURATED LAYER BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY PRESENT. AS FORCING INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT...AREAS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME BANDING OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY MENTIONED EARLIER AND
THIS HAS EVEN BEEN INDICATED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE 3KM
TTU WRF. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THE
COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATIOS OF GREATER THAN
10 TO 1. THIS ISNT TYPICAL FOR NORTH TEXAS AS WE USUALLY WIND UP
DEALING WITH HEAVY WET SNOW. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...WE THINK 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE METROPLEX. ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD END QUICKLY BY MIDDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AS TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

AS SOON AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
FOR FRIDAY AND THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE THE DAY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 20S EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED BY THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANALYSIS OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS POSSIBLY PLAYING OUT.
THE LEAST FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR A QUICK RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ALOFT...AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DOWN LOW...IT IS LIKELY
TO BE IN THE FORM OF SUPER COOLED WATER DROPLETS...WHICH LEADS TO
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY COLD...ICE WOULD LIKELY RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION
BUT WILL HAVE 20 POPS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS DIFFER WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON MONDAY WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH AND GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND
SHOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MON/TUE TIMEFRAME.

[aggiecutter]

Tuesday's system is starting to look very very interesting for a big portion of the State, maybe even down to PWC headquarters !!!!

The GFS is showing a pretty good snow event for NE Texas next Wednesday.

I'm looking at a loop of projected snowfall for NE TX for next Tue/Wed and see < 0.1" liquid, which would equate to perhaps a trace all the way to 1" of snow. Core of snow is from the central TX Panhandle to north-central OK.

The 12z GFS meteogram for Texarkana(33.46, -94) has close to half an inch of QPF falling from 12a Tuesday to 12a Wednesday, with temperatures starting in the lower 30's and quickly dropping to the upper 20's.

[SouthernMet]

nws San Angelo issues WWA for Throckmorton, Shackelford, Callahan, Nolan, Haskell, Jones, Fisher & Taylor counties.

[Tcu101]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.
AS SOON AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
FOR FRIDAY AND THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE THE DAY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 20S EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED BY THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANALYSIS OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS POSSIBLY PLAYING OUT.
THE LEAST FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR A QUICK RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ALOFT...AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DOWN LOW...IT IS LIKELY
TO BE IN THE FORM OF SUPER COOLED WATER DROPLETS...WHICH LEADS TO
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY COLD...ICE WOULD LIKELY RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION
BUT WILL HAVE 20 POPS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY.

.

So the cold air aloft will start to erode by Friday from the southerly 850MB winds causing more of a freezing rain/drizzle event? Am i reading this correctly?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Wow, things can change FAST around here.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Wow, things can change FAST around here.

Not unlike the weather in Texas!

[TheProfessor]

Wow, things can change FAST around here.

Not unlike the weather in Texas!

Yes weather here does change very fast. My dad told me that one time he was working in Lubbock Texas and their was a tornado spotted on the ground so he had to take shelter. On the same day he said the town was hit by a dust storm and after that still on the same day they got hit by a bad snow storm. They experienced 3 seasons in one day!

[orangeblood]

Latest NCEP RAP model run continues to become more aggressive with snowfall breaking out across North Texas tomorrow morning...has heaviest snow moving through Metroplex around 9-11 am. Looks like some 1/2-1 inch per hour rates


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[texas1836]

Latest NCEP RAP model run continues to become more aggressive with snowfall breaking out across North Texas tomorrow morning...has heaviest snow moving through Metroplex around 9-11 am. Looks like some 1/2-1 inch per hour rates


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I sure hope you're right. The snow seems to go little by little further south.

[TheProfessor]

Latest NCEP RAP model run continues to become more aggressive with snowfall breaking out across North Texas tomorrow morning...has heaviest snow moving through Metroplex around 9-11 am. Looks like some 1/2-1 inch per hour rates


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

That's snow rates not rain rates right? 1/2-1 inch per hour of snow is a lot different than 1/2-1in of rain an hour. That would be equal to 5-10 inches of snow per hour! Don't get me wrong though, I would love for the latter to happen.