Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the operational runs beyond 3-4 days regarding any Arctic air intrusion next month. They will tend to lose it at times. The signals are there that an outbreak will occur, however.

[bubba hotep]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the operational runs beyond 3-4 days regarding any Arctic air intrusion next month. They will tend to lose it at times. The signals are there that an outbreak will occur, however.

Why do you say that? Don't the models always do great with highly anomalies patterns lol

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the operational runs beyond 3-4 days regarding any Arctic air intrusion next month. They will tend to lose it at times. The signals are there that an outbreak will occur, however.

Why do you say that? Don't the models always do great with highly anomalies patterns lol

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

They are actually quite good at the 500mb flow! You've got pretty reasonable agreement.

But I would not put a lot of stock in their surface cold depiction ..yet

It's the southern US full trough zonal flow that gets them. But we know better from McFarland's paper!

Snippet

[Ralph's Weather]

Yep, pretty entertaining watching 1050 plus Arctic HP's going due south than make an abrupt 90 deg turn due east....not happening. We can get a decent clue on 500mb patterns and potential HP strength but models won't have a clue on temperature output. With this type of setup, Not even sure if the Ensembles can even help us with temps past 7 days either

EPO will press this cold south with time and for the first time this winter...a pretty impressive -PNA/-EPO combo. If I had to guess, that combo is what the models are having major issues with

Feb 2011 and Late Feb 2015 had that combo and worked out very well for parts of Texas

Those charts are beautiful. That is a good winter storm signal for give or take a few days from 2/5.

[orangeblood]

Should would be nice if that S/W would dig a little further southwest for late next week

[Ntxw]

It's the first run of the GFS to show a weak SW trough in wxman57's promised land (second week Feb). Small, but baby steps!

Hopefully it's a sign the systems will ride the massive continental trough. If that is the case, you definitely want to be at the edges of the cold air for snow.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Welcome Wintermax

It's fun to see the crackhead models on the 7 to 10 day runs........They will solber up and see the light. Superbowl weekend could be the start of a very cold week, going to suck for folks heading up to Minnesota, hope they like negitive temps....

Alot of Eagle fans. Hopefully many of them get drunk and try licking metal utility poles.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Welcome Wintermax

It's fun to see the crackhead models on the 7 to 10 day runs........They will solber up and see the light. Superbowl weekend could be the start of a very cold week, going to suck for folks heading up to Minnesota, hope they like negitive temps.... :lol

Alot of Eagle fans. Hopefully many of them get drunk and try licking metal utility poles.

I’ll be there! Fly Eagles Fly

[wxman22]

The 12z Euro Looks interesting at the end of the run

[Ntxw]

The elusive SW trough! With big cold plunging south

[Haris]

All of today’s 12z runs at hour 240 show a strong cold front to roll thru across the Central and Southern plains . Should be interesting

[Ntxw]

All of today’s 12z runs at hour 240 show a strong cold front to roll thru across the Central and Southern plains . Should be interesting

And all three globals has the SW shortwave. Euro is a full latitude while CMC and GFS is a little more disconnected to the northern jet. Quite intriguing. I think in time the disconnect will end, there is just too much cold, dense air to be stalled up north.

[losf1981]

Been off the board a few days with a stomach bug and flu. What's the good word? When is the next arctic outbreak? Am I finally going to get some winter precip. in Wichita Falls??

[Haris]

Been off the board a few days with a stomach bug and flu. What's the good word? When is the next arctic outbreak? Am I finally going to get some winter precip. in Wichita Falls??

Early to Mid Feb certainty. And wintry precip ? Probably . How much and specifics ? Too early

[Ntxw]

Been off the board a few days with a stomach bug and flu. What's the good word? When is the next arctic outbreak? Am I finally going to get some winter precip. in Wichita Falls??

Warmer weather comes to a halt this coming Thursday. Cold will then come in spokes, front after front during a 2-4 week period. Stay tuned each day to see what the models do!

[Cpv17]

I’m kind of curious how the snowpack will compare with this coming outbreak of cold to what we just experienced. Will the snowpack be better this time around allowing for less moderation?

[WinterMax]

Wow Ntxw, that is a lot of details, sounds like you are sure of another blast, even though in waves, I am about 30 miles due south of Alexandria La. Would my area be included in this action? And do you think there is a decent chance of a winter weather event down here?

[Ntxw]

Wow Ntxw, that is a lot of details, sounds like you are sure of another blast, even though in waves, I am about 30 miles due south of Alexandria La. Would my area be included in this action? And do you think there is a decent chance of a winter weather event down here?

It's usually the case when you have NPAC blocking. That's what just happened between December 20th and Jan 15th that we just went through. It's seldom just a single blast when you have a deep pool of cold up north. Each little ripple sends a front that models can miss. Think you got a good chance but any snow or ice is speculation at the moment.

[orangeblood]

For the first time in quite awhile, the 12Z Euro Ensemble members look quite interesting day 9-10 Feb 4-5th...I've been following these members for years and just witnessed something I've never witnessed before - one member shows a 1070mb HP dropping into Montana with single digit highs into parts of North Texas Feb 4th. Now, it's just one measly ensemble member but shows the extreme potential this pattern could go towards

[WinterMax]