Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

I dunno about Texas but I know for a fact we'll have something else here. It's too early

And yeah everyone thought January was gonna be warm too

The MJO has been a good proxy for the low frequency background state. December was much warmer than prospects thought back in November, with the MJO in unfavorable phases. January was colder than projected with a favorable MJO. We have a weakening MJO into the bad phases so what it does in the COD has implications.

[txtwister78]

Mentioned this the other day about Jan being a bust for temps. This was shared by Joe Bastardi this morning on X/twitter but look at that bust for January temps. CSV2 wasn't the only model showing a warm Jan either. Euro forecast in December for January looked similar across the south as well.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gh_J7PxXMAAJOND?format=png&name=900x900

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-seasonal-monthly_avgs-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom_month_mostrecent/1733011200/1735689600-8iR9ZPWD1Ws.png

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gh_J8cgWEAA_-47?format=png&name=medium

One of the more humbling professions we have is long range weather forecasting...some of the most "sophisticated", expensive, energy consuming tools we have don't perform well at all outside of 7-10 days. And it's been that way for forever without a lot of progress it appears (talking outside of the 2 week time frame). Not even mentioning the 24-48 hrs out non sense that we see from the models occasionally

Agreed.

[Wthrfan]

Na we will have a couple of chances in february, after seeing how badly the CFS monthly and EPS monthly guidance did with calling for a warm January which ended up busting, im hesitant to believe the same models calling for a very mild february, yeah you gotta factor in climatology and the se ridge, but i definitely think it would be foolish to think winter is over for Texas just yet , lot of cold air building in western and central canada on the ensembles, se ridge is their, but still have to watch this of course, wouldn’t take much for the dam to burst

Watched Pow Ponders latest video and he is very bullish about another significant cold outbreak beginning the first week of February lasting through mid month.

[Sambucol2024]

Na we will have a couple of chances in february, after seeing how badly the CFS monthly and EPS monthly guidance did with calling for a warm January which ended up busting, im hesitant to believe the same models calling for a very mild february, yeah you gotta factor in climatology and the se ridge, but i definitely think it would be foolish to think winter is over for Texas just yet , lot of cold air building in western and central canada on the ensembles, se ridge is their, but still have to watch this of course, wouldn’t take much for the dam to burst

Watched Pow Ponders latest video and he is very bullish about another significant cold outbreak beginning the first week of February lasting through mid month.

Yep. Start at 8.50 about what is looking like will come straight down to Texas and possibly into Mexico. https://youtu.be/lGAvwQ3Hq4w?feature=shared

[txtwister78]

Just keep in mind we're still 300 hours out folks and I can put on the same model he did and tell you "The potential is there for another arctic shot" around that timeframe. It's an interesting signal to watch no question but anyone commenting to their viewers with that level of specificity at that range...yeah IDK. Just saying. Bullish wouldn't be the word I would use. But hey it gives us something to track so that's good.

[Brent]

Just keep in mind we're still 300 hours out folks and I can put on the same model he did and tell you "The potential is there for another arctic shot" around that timeframe. It's an interesting signal to watch no question but anyone commenting to their viewers with that level of specificity at that range...yeah IDK. Just saying. Bullish wouldn't be the word I would use. But hey it gives us something to track so that's good.

Yeah honestly I'm taking a bit of a break right now anyway I can't do another 10 days of watching right now

I mean to be honest the big storm we had here plus seeing snow elsewhere was enough for me this winter I think. I don't really think I need to see more but we'll see and honestly both our setups in the last two weeks have been a last minute surprise anyway

[Stratton23]

Yeah while it is early to be saying for sure its gonna get cold down here in february, its hard to deny their are some interesting players on the table showing in the ensembles, Se ridge+ strong - EPO and a - WPO can lead to some pretty interesting results, I think it was last february we had a strong se ridge and arctic air coming down which lead to an overrunning ice storm setup across texas , definitely a pattern that at least gets you’re eyebrow raised lol

[Ntxw]

One thing I will note from watching the ENS trends, Aleutian ridging (flat) has not been verifying from the longer range, with more poleward as time comes in. If this is the case here then the window for allowing the cold to come south will be better. We'll watch Alaska and W-Can get cold, if after the first week of Feb or so the AO and NAO can relax, and a favorable off the west coast Pacific ridge is intact, we'll be able to get some of it down here.

[txtwister78]

Just keep in mind we're still 300 hours out folks and I can put on the same model he did and tell you "The potential is there for another arctic shot" around that timeframe. It's an interesting signal to watch no question but anyone commenting to their viewers with that level of specificity at that range...yeah IDK. Just saying. Bullish wouldn't be the word I would use. But hey it gives us something to track so that's good.

Yeah honestly I'm taking a bit of a break right now anyway I can't do another 10 days of watching right now

I mean to be honest the big storm we had here plus seeing snow elsewhere was enough for me this winter I think. I don't really think I need to see more but we'll see and honestly both our setups in the last two weeks have been a last minute surprise anyway

Yeah the good thing is everyone pretty much got a taste of winter so anything we get beyond to me is bonus opportunity. Not discounting our border state forum members like yourself, but It's extremely rare that almost all regions of Texas get impacted by winter weather in one year and so I agree you take the W on that.

I don't mind being greedy should I or others get more, but good news is will definitely have some time to take a break and watch how February looks to unfold. Just not ready to go all in yet. With weather you almost always have the players on the field, it's just a matter of putting them in the right position to get the outcome you want (or in some cases don't). We're not quite there yet for February but we shall see.

[wxman22]

Next weeks storm looks very wet, and I wouldn't sleep on the possibility of wintry weather under the cold core if I was in NW/W Texas and Oklahoma.

[Cpv17]

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188251145 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 I like Bam, had a video that came out probably close to 2 weeks before our big snow event, and he said watch for a potential southern snowstorm and he nailed it, doesn’t hype either, pretty straightforward to be honest, will be interesting to see what happens in february, his forecasts for cold this winter have actually been pretty good

[gpsnowman]

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1882511458241859727?s=46&t=t6uaykdJhHy0_m1NXPw4Cg

I like the following tweet where it shows cold Februarys after a cold January. Will it happen? Who knows but I'm excited about the prospects.

[Ntxw]

Going forward you don't really want the 1982 and 1985 analog for Feb (though both are cold for a period). You want a Feb 1989 analog (think this is our ceiling) where it was so cold in Alaska/Western Canada that it spilled into the west and central plains. This would be a shallow type cold though so ice if anything. That was a very strong Nina, so the SE ridge won't be as potent.

MJO P6-7 are actually not bad to have into mid February.

[Ntxw]

Euro weeklies have trended colder towards the 2nd weekish of Feb. This is for 3rd to 10th of Feb the past 3 runs.

[Cpv17]

Euro weeklies have trended colder towards the 2nd weekish of Feb. This is for 3rd to 10th of Feb the past 3 runs.

https://i.imgur.com/v6Y6YH5.gif

CAD. Bring it!

[Stratton23]

While everyone went to sleep last night, i managed to sneak in a cold weather agent of mine to infiltrate wxman57’s red river wall team, he may not appreciate that their may be a few “ unexplained holes” in his wall coming up for february , im bringing that arctic express back down here in february

[wxman22]

The 0Z ICON now shows the winterstorm next week also...

[Cpv17]

The 0Z ICON now shows the winterstorm next week also...

https://i.ibb.co/zQDV5Mp/prateptype-cat-icon-imp-us-sc-11.png

Looks good for you up there.

[DW5522]

The 0Z ICON now shows the winterstorm next week also...

https://i.ibb.co/zQDV5Mp/prateptype-cat-icon-imp-us-sc-11.png

Wouldn’t hurt my feelings!