Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 141138
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

.AVIATION...
LIFR FOG SHOULD BE CHASED OUT OF KLAW ANY TIME BUT MAY LINGER AT
KSPS FOR ANOTHER HR OR SO. N WINDS THEN INCREASING TO AROUND
20G30KT FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHRA/SHSN WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF
THIS MORNING... FOLLOWED BY LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN MOST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES CLEARING BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES 2 BOUNDARIES AT PRESENT. A LEADING WIND SHIFT
WAS SLICING THROUGH THE CWA FROM NEAR HBR TO OKC AREA TO JUST S OF
TUL AT 08Z... WHILE THE ACTUAL CANADIAN COLD FRONT WAS SOMEWHERE IN
S KS AND ABOUT TO ENTER N OK. WIND SHIFT HAS MOVED LITTLE OVERNIGHT
BUT HAS BEGUN TO SAG S IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. AS CANADIAN AIR
OVER CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINES ROLLING S... THE BOUNDARIES WILL
CONSOLIDATE SOON OVER OK. THAT CAN`T HAPPEN SOON ENOUGH... AS FOG
AND STRATUS HAVE BEEN TROUBLESOME IN THE ZONE OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR
AND S OF THE WINDSHIFT/CONVERGENCE ZONE. BY 12Z OR SO THE N WINDS
WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND THE L/V WINDS FARTHER S
SHOULD BE COMING AROUND TO AT LEAST LIGHT N. THAT SHOULD SCOUR
OUT THE FOG RATHER QUICKLY. MEANTIME... DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
NEEDED FOR A FEW HRS ACROSS S PARTS OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT THE ONLY FORECAST ISSUES TODAY WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES...
PRECIP TYPE... HIGH TEMPS... AND WIND SPEEDS. STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION WILL EFFECTIVELY NEUTRALIZE ANY DIURNAL WARMING SO HIGHS
LIKELY TO BE THIS MORNING... MOST LIKELY AT 12Z OVER N OK... WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THEREAFTER. RADAR ECHOES OVER OK AND
NORTHWARD LIKELY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM OVER
NEBRASKA. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND...
AND WHAT FORM IT WILL BE IN IF/WHEN IT DOES. MOST OF IT LIKELY TO
BE SNOW... BUT WITH SOME AREAS STILL NEAR 40 THERE MAY BE SOME -RA
FOR A WHILE. IN ANY CASE... AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND WE WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND ALL OF THE AREA BY 00Z AS
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES SE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING ON THE EXTENDED... ALTHOUGH ECMWF IS
NOT AS BULLISH TODAY AS IT WAS YESTRERDAY WITH THE COLD-AIR
INTRUSION ON THURSDAY. POPS ARE MAINTAINED FROM THU THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. OVERALL PICTURE PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF IS BOTHERSOME... AS A
STRONG FRONT NEARBY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR ICE IN ADDITION TO SNOW BY AROUND FRIDAY. FOR SIMPLICITY WE WILL
KEEP THE WX GRIDS AS R/S FOR NOW.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 21 42 20 / 30 0 0 0
HOBART OK 38 20 41 22 / 30 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 42 24 44 23 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 35 17 41 14 / 30 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 34 18 39 20 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 43 24 42 25 / 30 0 0 0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ027>032-
037>048-050>052.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-
088>090.

&&

$$

03/24/24

[srainhoutx]

As txagwxman has mentioned the GFS and some of its ensemble members suggests a split flow and no colder air. The signals via the blocking regime, AO NOA PDO and +PNA seen by the EC fit better with what is actually occurring in the Stratospheric and Troposphere conditions at this time. The weakened PV and a cross polar flow seen by the EC and its ensemble members are a more sensible solution. I suspect the GFS had a hiccup and will start to come back around. FYI: A0 is currently-5.000+ and some signals of remaining severely negative for the foreseeable future. What an historic pattern we are in IMHO.

[Ntxw]

As txagwxman has mentioned the GFS and some of its ensemble members suggests a split flow and no colder air. The signals via the blocking regime, AO NOA PDO and +PNA seen by the EC fit better with what is actually occurring in the Stratospheric and Troposphere conditions at this time. The weakened PV and a cross polar flow seen by the EC and its ensemble members are a more sensible solution. I suspect the GFS had a hiccup and will start to come back around. FYI: A0 is currently-5.000+ and some signals of remaining severely negative for the foreseeable future. What an historic pattern we are in IMHO.

No doubt this has been amazing, before all set and done I bet this year's pattern could give '58 and 77-78 a run for it's money and that's just unbelievable (east of the rockies that is). I'm glad to have had a chance to experience it. I doubt it will ever happen again in my lifetime .

[wxman57]

At the surface, the 12Z NAM doesn't even show a light freeze on the north side of Houston (IAH):

[srainhoutx]

Surprised you're not out on the bike wxman57. What a great and warm day! May be the last we see of the 60's for awhile.

[JGrin87]

anyone think that band of snow along the red river makes it into the DFW area?

[srainhoutx]

HGX Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT IS NOW ON WACO`S DOORSTEP AND SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA
AROUND 20Z AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
NICELY ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH SW LLVL FLOW EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS SRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. NUDGED TEMPS UP
ACCORDINGLY AND ALSO TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO MATCH ONGOING TRENDS.
STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE I-10 SWD WHERE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. INCOMING 12Z DATA STILL SUPPORTS SOME
--SN/--RA MIX POST FROPA ACROSS N/NE ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT`LL BE A QUICK SHOT AND LOW INTENSITY IF IT DOES OCCUR AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS WITH SUCH A SCENARIO. 47

[Weatherdude20]

anyone think that band of snow along the red river makes it into the DFW area?

I believe so, could see some mixed precip, or snow.

[Snowman67]

At the surface, the 12Z NAM doesn't even show a light freeze on the north side of Houston (IAH):

I think I remember seeing some charts like this posted here (based off of GFS or NAM) a few days before the N. Texas storm that showed all of the precipitation being liquid in that area. Not putting to much stock in the models this far out.

[utweather]

No doubt this has been amazing, before all set and done I bet this year's pattern could give '58 and 77-78 a run for it's money and that's just unbelievable (east of the rockies that is). I'm glad to have had a chance to experience it. I doubt it will ever happen again in my lifetime .

Here in Austin its been relatively ho hum. We haven't even gotten our annual light sleet light frezzing rain mix that coats the windshield. The highs have been a little cooler than last decade which has been nice. I remember living in collin county/north dallas in the 80s and we got some decent annual snows. Hopefully this decade you will see more of return to that, and it won't be a once in a lifetime deal.

[iorange55]

The 12z GFS looks a little colder for next week. Hopefully it's a trend.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE ARRIVED AT METRO TAF SITES...AND ARE
QUICKLY SURGING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER. WILL CARRY 20G30KT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH PEAK WIND MAY REACH AWW CRITERIA...GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN UNDER 32KTS AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEED FOR AWW.

IFR CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS BENEATH
FRONT. CIGS UPSTREAM ALREADY MVFR...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR AS 850MB FRONT SURGES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SKC BEYOND
01-02Z.

LIFT WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 700MB FRONT...WITH 50-KNOT WINDS IN LAYER
700-500MB. PRECIP PRODUCING LAYER IS WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS
WICHITA FALLS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEED FOR WINTRY PRECIP AWW. DE-ICING WILL BE
NEEDED REGARDLESS OF PRECIP...BUT IMPACTS TO AVIATION FROM ANY
PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL.

[serenata09]

Looks like DFW will miss out on the snow today. All those radar returns seem to be moving quickly off to the east. Looks WINDY and cold out right now with snow still on the ground outside. It's a beautiful sight.

Oh well, I was surprised to see the amount of snow on the ground when I got back into Dallas last night - impressive to see even after a few days of melting.

[Ntxw]

12z ECMWF is starting to look like the previous GFS runs out through 168hr, warmer with most of the precip (storm) further up north.

[Portastorm]

12z ECMWF is starting to look like the previous GFS runs out through 168hr, warmer with most of the precip (storm) further up north.

Yep, almost a zonal flow. Not encouraging at all!

[txagwxman]

Yea these models in the back are starting to tick me off . NAM is almost too warm at the surface with radiative cooling...should see upper 20s Conroe/Magnolia on Tue morning.

I doubt DFW will see much this afternoon looking at the satellite, maybe squeeze out a flurry.

[Portastorm]

Yea these models in the back are starting to tick me off . NAM is almost too warm at the surface with radiative cooling...should see upper 20s Conroe/Magnolia on Tue morning.

Makes me wonder why the operational models aren't in sync with the large-scale atmospheric signals.

[txagwxman]

Yea these models in the back are starting to tick me off . NAM is almost too warm at the surface with radiative cooling...should see upper 20s Conroe/Magnolia on Tue morning.

Makes me wonder why the operational models aren't in sync with the large-scale atmospheric signals.

PNA was actually going a little negative today (not positive) in the long range.

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
153 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2010

VALID 12Z WED FEB 17 2010 - 12Z SUN FEB 21 2010

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE IN TIME THIS PERIOD AS THE WRN CONUS
RIDGE RETROGRADES ABOUT 10 DEGREES. A MEAN VORTEX LOCKS IN OVER
THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL ERN
SHIFT TO EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA UNDER STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
POSITIVE HT ANOMALIES OVER LOWER DAVIS STRAIT WITH THE NEG AO/NAO
PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SWD TO NEAR 70N 100W. THIS
FEATURES ARE AGREED UPON.

WESTWARD AS THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES TO THE EPAC HTS BUILD
NWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST INTO THE YUKON AND ERN AK INTO A CLOSED
MID LEVEL HIGH WITH GFS AGAIN TODAY ALLOWING MORE UNDERCUTTING
FLOW. ECMWF AND ITS MEAN ALONG WITH THE UKMET DROP SWD MUCH MORE
ENERGY FROM ALBERTA FORMING A DEEPER TROF OVER AND TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES SUPRESSING THE SRN STREAM FLOW LATE WEEK TO WEEKEND.
IN TIME..BY DAY 8 BOTH MODELS BUILD AN EPAC REX BLOCK BUT ECMWF
AND ITS ENS MEAN HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MID NATION TROF CONTINUING TO
SUPRESS THE SRN STREAM FLOW WITH GFS AND ITS MEAN LESS AMPLIFIED
AND HAVING A STRONGER SRN STREAM. TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON THE ERN
NOAM POSITIVE HT ANOMALY NEAR DAVIS STRAIT INDICATE SOME MDT EPAC
RIDGING AND A TROF OVER ERN CONUS. TELECONNECTING ON THE WRN
ANOMALY ALONG THE SRN AK COAST YIELDS A TROF FROM THE HUDSON BAY
REGION TO SOUTHWEST CONUS. THESE DUAL VERY STRONG POSITIVE
ANOMALIES WOULD YIELD A HYBRID OF THE TELECONNECTIONS THIS PERIOD
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ENS MEAN. WHILE THE GFS FORECAST OF THE PNA
PATTERN IS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY STRONGLY
NEGATIVE AO/NAO BELIEVE THE LONGER TERM GFS IN ERROR AND THE
STRONGER PNA TYPE PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AND ITS ENS MEAN
OF A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF A CENTRAL TO ERN CONUS TROF WILL
PREVAIL. D+8 ANALOGS THAT BEST FIT A STRONG NEG AO/NAO AND WARM
ENSO YEARS CONT TO BE FEB 1978 AND 1958.

HPC PRELIM PROGS START WITH A NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
ITS ENS MEANS FOR DAYS 3-5 WED/THU INCREASING TO A DOMINENT ECMWF
ENS MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7 SAT/SUN.

12Z GFS HAS MUCH MORE OF A CENTRAL CONUS TROF DAYS 5-7 COMING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN. LATEST 12Z
ECMWF HOWEVER HAS GONE TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS GFS HAVING MUCH MORE
SRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW AND LESS NRN STREAM AMPLIFICATION. A TREND
OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TOWARDS EACH OTHER YIELSING A RESULT THAT IF
BLENDED WOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENS MEAN USED EARLIER.
NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINAL PROGS.

BREEZY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION FLOW OVER ERN CONUS WED TO
FRI. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SWD OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE SOME
LT UPSLOPE SNOWS THRU THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK. ECMWF AND ITS MEAN PREFERENCE OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF
SWINGING THRU THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK INDICATE A
POTENTIAL HVY SNOW THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM CO TO KS AND
MO FRI AND SAT.
ROSENSTEIN

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
148 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

...CANADIAN AIR MASS TO SURGE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY...

.A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
PUSHES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND LIGHT RAIN ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ADVANCES SOUTH CLEARING SKIES...USHERING IN VERY DRY AIR AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE THREE FACTORS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT REACHING FOR
FALLING BELOW FREEZING.

TXZ248>254-150400-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FZ.A.0005.100216T0600Z-100216T1500Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE
148 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010