Texas Winter 2014-2015

[somethingfunny]

Will we be doing the usual switch to a new thread for the new meteorological month (meteorological spring begins in 20 minutes) or should we just roll with this thread for the foreseeable future?

[Ntxw]

Will we be doing the usual switch to a new thread for the new meteorological month (meteorological spring begins in 20 minutes) or should we just roll with this thread for the foreseeable future?

The last few winters Portastorm just lets us continue to roll on until the Spring Equinox or until the final winter threat has cleared. It's easier when folks go back and re -read post from past winters instead of having to dig around the USA weather threads in two threads.

[Brent]

Will we be doing the usual switch to a new thread for the new meteorological month (meteorological spring begins in 20 minutes) or should we just roll with this thread for the foreseeable future?

The last few winters Portastorm just lets us continue to roll on until the Spring Equinox or until the final winter threat has cleared. It's easier when folks go back and re -read post from past winters instead of having to dig around the USA weather threads in two threads.

and clearly winter isnt ending anytime soon so... lol

Yeah I know yall were posting about past March events in the winter threads before...

My confidence is quickly increasing in a high impact winter storm wednesday into thursday for about 1/2 of texas. And i do think someone in central, or west central texas will get *buried*. (and no not austin at this time)

I will say this again, atm, it doesn't appear to be to be anything to write home about - regarding temps though.

Yeah... I really doubt Austin gets cold enough for the *significant* amounts of frozen precip anyway... this seems like it'd be more bullseyed in some kind of north direction of there.

[Texas Snowman]

To me, meteorological calendar or not, March is still primarily wintertime. At least for the first two to three weeks of the month.

Personally, I have seen far more winter weather systems and big cold fronts in March as compared to November. Heck, there was even a decent snow in early April a few years ago (around Easter?) for some parts of Texas if I remember correctly.

My .02 cents worth, but I'day leave this thread open through the middle of the month if not the entire month.

[Brent]

Just looking over the GFS today and wow. The consistency is pretty amazing.

For Dallas:

1) Significant precip Wednesday morning-afternoon with temps below freezing and falling into the 20s during the precip(hits around morning rush hour, just like the events earlier this week)
2) Very cold temps behind it... the 12z GFS had mid teens Thursday and Friday morning and both days not making it above freezing, even the warm other runs have had Thursday barely getting above freezing and a low approaching 20 Thursday morning and mid 20s Friday morning

[SouthernMet]

All three on board

Euro : https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/ ... 2c0a7c8375

CMC : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_18.png

GFS : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_17.png

[Ntxw]

Yeah Euro is a wallop for the entire northern 1/2 of the state. Quite a significant winter storm with brisk northerly winds at the same time.

[Brent]

I believe this map counts sleet as snow but anyway... gives some idea of the scope

[TheProfessor]

My grill looks like it was a prop in The Day after Tomorrow, it's covered in solid ice. I'll try to get a picture of it before it melts.

[Brent]

So is the Wednesday storm still mostly sleet?

[somethingfunny]

Yeah I agree and figured we would stay with this thread especially since winter is peaking right now. I asked because in the past we've switched on meteorological calendar thresholds - like the November snow event is actually in the Fall thread - but there's no reason to move to a Spring thread right now. Even if we end up discussing severe weather in this thread somewhat, I'd keep this thread going until the Equinox or thereabouts.

2 hours into Meteorological Spring and 14 hours after I was forecasted to climb above freezing, and I still have light freezing rain falling. This ice came from my bushes and is all new since sundown. It's "up" to 31 degrees now. My trees are shiny and crinkly.

[Brent]

This just looks incredible:

[TarrantWx]

So is the Wednesday storm still mostly sleet?

It looks like mostly sleet changing to snow at the end. 850mb temps dont fall below 0C until late Wednesday evening and 1000-500mb thickness generally stays above 540dm. 0z GFS drops close to 0.50" of QPF with temps in the 20s for DFW. That would be a very serious ice storm with impacts similar to Monday's sleet storm. Does anyone know what the official liquid equivalent at DFW for Mondays storm was? It might be good for comparison of potential impacts as we look at future model runs for this event.

[somethingfunny]

So is the Wednesday storm still mostly sleet?

It looks like mostly sleet changing to snow at the end. 850mb temps dont fall below 0C until late Wednesday evening and 1000-500mb thickness generally stays above 540dm. 0z GFS drops close to 0.50" of QPF with temps in the 20s for DFW. That would be a very serious ice storm with impacts similar to Monday's sleet storm. Does anyone know what the official liquid equivalent at DFW for Mondays storm was? It might be good for comparison of potential impacts as we look at future model runs for this event.

I think that much sleet would be much more serious than Monday's ice storm. That much QPF falling into temperatures in the 20s would be more like December 2013 or February 2011 probably.

Monday only had .17" of QPF at DFW.

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015


...THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 23 2015...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2015


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 30 1229 AM 86 1933 62 -32 71
MINIMUM 26 1159 PM 16 1901 42 -16 48
AVERAGE 28 52 -24 60

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.17 3.08 1949 0.10 0.07 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 1.84 2.13 -0.29 0.38
SINCE DEC 1 6.59 6.81 -0.22 3.47
SINCE JAN 1 5.46 4.26 1.20 0.71

SNOWFALL (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.2 3.7 1975 0.0 0.2 0.0
MONTH TO DATE 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.7
SINCE DEC 1 0.2 1.0 -0.8 2.8
SINCE JUL 1 0.2 1.0 -0.8 2.8
SNOW DEPTH T

DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
YESTERDAY 37 13 24 5
MONTH TO DATE 375 364 11 414
SINCE DEC 1 1456 1515 -59 1688
SINCE JUL 1 1874 1869 5 2089

COOLING
YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE DEC 1 1 6 -5 0
SINCE JAN 1 0 2 -2 0
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 30 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (30)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 36 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (30)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 15.7


SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 1.0


WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.
LT FREEZING RAIN
LIGHT SNOW
SLEET
FOG


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 85 100 AM
LOWEST 81 100 PM
AVERAGE 83

DFW apparently recorded only 0.2" of snow/sleet (they're counted the same in the records) Monday, though I pulled close to half an inch of sleet here in Garland.



0.50" of precip all falling as sleet would be calamitous. Then again, maybe it will take a while to change over like it did Monday and Wednesday and most of the QPF could just fall as rain.

[Brent]

So is the Wednesday storm still mostly sleet?

It looks like mostly sleet changing to snow at the end. 850mb temps dont fall below 0C until late Wednesday evening and 1000-500mb thickness generally stays above 540dm. 0z GFS drops close to 0.50" of QPF with temps in the 20s for DFW. That would be a very serious ice storm with impacts similar to Monday's sleet storm. Does anyone know what the official liquid equivalent at DFW for Mondays storm was? It might be good for comparison of potential impacts as we look at future model runs for this event.

***If this event is as progged by the models***, I see this event being much more significant than Monday tbh... Monday's event was short-lived. Literally in and out in 4-5 hours. It looks entirely possible we could have 18-24 hours of frozen precip here.

[somethingfunny]

Still 31 here. We briefly rose to 32 an hour ago and I noticed the ice on my car/fence/tree felt a bit wet, but we've since dipped below freezing again and all those surfaces once again feel like solid ice.

This is pretty amazing considering we should have been in the 40s by now. I wonder how long this snow and ice will take to melt, and how warm we will really get on Tuesday. I've seen these scenarios before where temps bust cold with snowcover but as soon as the snow melts we spring right up to busting warm above forecast, but we'll see.

[TexasF6]

GFS BURIES The Western Hill Country in 9-12 inches of snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Austin Gets in on it too!!!!!!! Euro does the same, less HC snow. Austin gets 2 inches, and WXMAN 57 gets a dusting in this early run

[Ntxw]

The ENS have a very healthy swath of snow/sleet for much of the state. The winds will play a bigger role than last week and if there is snow (while it may be dramatic to say and I'm not certain the criteria will be met) but dare I say someone will get blizzard or near blizzard conditions? That's one heck of a front and if there is that deep snow cover temps will likely drop hard. Today's runs will likely keep the WFO's busy and should they continue I personally think winter storm watches should be hoisted sometime tomorrow starting in the west and northern tier of the state first.

[wxman57]

GFS soundings paint a freezing rain picture for Austin on Wednesday, as there is quite a large warm nose above the surface. For Houston, it looks like upper 30s to 40s and rain.

Sounding for Austin Valid 6pm Wednesday:


By 12am Thursday, the warm nose is diminishing but the air column is starting to dry out. That's always an issue down south. The cold air is only deep enough for snow as the precip is coming to an end. Wouldn't rule out a snow chance in Austin, though. Maybe Portastorm will get his snow. I wouldn't count on much, though.

[gpsnowman]

Well the local morning weather segments show a chance for winter precip, but the temps forecasted seem a bit warm. I am sure that will change as we get closer.