Texas Winter 2014-2015

[ndale]

This is the SA/Austin weather service thinking about the mid-week storm:
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOURNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

[TheProfessor]

The wintery weather destroyed one of my gutters, the sleet from Monday pushed it out of place, the rain/snow on Wednesday pushed it down further, and the snow changing to ice on Friday and Saturday collapsed part of it.

[TheProfessor]

Did anyone's point forecast go back in time?

[DonWrk]

Could just be your browsers cache pulling up an outdated version of the webpage.

[TheProfessor]

It could be, but it was the only spot that I got it for, other places I clicked on were normal.

[Ntxw]

February is done and the final verdict is in. Coldest month of DJF for all the major metropolitan centers of Texas (though compared to departures from average November was a little more impressive). As mentioned earlier by other posters bookend winter but counting just DJF it started mild and gradually got colder, the three month average will be slightly colder than normal winter. February was also a very wet month.

Since Dec 1st DFW got 7.71 inches of rain, normal is 7.34 - so slightly wetter or near average winter
Since January 1st DFW has 6.58 inches of rain, normal is 4.79 - so wetter than normal thus far in 2015
Snowfall (sleet counts) is at 2.3 inches, normal is 1 inch - above normal for the winter

[dhweather]

February is done and the final verdict is in. Coldest month of DJF for all the major metropolitan centers of Texas (though compared to departures from average November was a little more impressive). As mentioned earlier by other posters bookend winter but counting just DJF it started mild and gradually got colder. February was also a very wet month.

It is encouraging so far this year at my place. Now that I've said that, Lucy is going to rip my heart out and show it to me before I die.

In Heath:

Jan 2014 0.60"
Jan 2015 3.44"

Feb 2014 0.60"
Feb 2015 2.15"

March 2014 0.99"
March 2015 ???

[Ntxw]

March 2014 0.99"
March 2015 ???

Well the good news is the models do give anywhere from 1 inch of qpf to 1.7 inch on the high end this coming week even though some of that will be in the form of frozen. So take it, after that Faux Spring comes and it's dry for a stretch and mild until around the equinox. That will hurt, should turn colder again end of the month with more rain chances but March average qpf is high lets hope we claw at least to normal. It will be tough because I think severe weather season will get squashed again given cold is lingering over North America.

You need a -PNA (and good SE ridge) for a severe setup in Texas in the spring as the strong jet from it is what creates outbreaks. We're getting that now but it's bringing in more winter instead. PNA will rise mid month so not a good set up for severe weather outbreaks. The -EPO continues which is why cold is allowed to linger so long. This is the second of back to back winters in which the EPO has dominated the weather across the continent.

[Portastorm]

IMPORTANT NOTE

As most of you have already touched upon, I think we'll keep this thread open and encourage discussion here through March. Of course anyone is welcome to opine in the thread of Texas Spring 2015 whenever they wish ... carry on.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville Morning Discussion....low chance for Freezing Rain?? Are we March? Taking a quick look at the 0zECMWF it has 925mb temperatures in the -2 to -3C with temperatures at the surface in the upper to lower 30s all these with precipitation (Thursday)..Maybe enough for a few ice pellets? 0zUKEMT has snow for Deep South Texas on Friday!

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
STARTLING DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS IT ARRIVES. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO CALL FOR HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PLUNGING INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS ARE IN THE 30S AREA WIDE...AND AS THIS SYSTEM COMES WITHIN
VIEW OF THE NAM AND ITS BETTER HANDLING OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES... EXPECT
WE MAY NEED TO GO LOWER WITH THE TEMPERATURES. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND COASTAL TROUGHING NEAR THE SURFACE AMID CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM REBOUNDING ABOVE 50 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF ALSO CONTINUE TO POSITION SOUTH TEXAS IN A
DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A STRONG
SPEED MAX TO THE EAST OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING PARENT TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A STRONG OVERRUNNING PATTERN IS APPARENT IN THE
800/700MB LAYER SO RAISED RAIN CHANCES AND KEPT A PERSISTENT
MENTION OF DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED TO CARRY DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS...THIS PUTS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH
PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY
DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 50 TO 100 MB OF ATMOSPHERE THAT MIGHT BE
PRIME FOR WET BULB COOLING IF ENOUGH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. WET
BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES...EVEN CALCULATED TO OUR LOWER FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING BUT ITS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT
LEAST SOME EYE ON FOR FREEZING RAIN IF THE AIRMASS IS ESPECIALLY
COLDER THAN ADVERTISED.

[Ntxw]

Here is the daily EPO index, go back and look from November. You can pinpoint exactly what and when occurred cold or warm. November had a plunge, December the EPO rose very positive until late month into early January another cold blast. Second half of January it rose positive (extended thaw) and February was predominantly negative. The forecast for March is dominantly negative. If you can master this index you've got it good long term.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/te ... resent.txt

[Portastorm]

This is the SA/Austin weather service thinking about the mid-week storm:
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOURNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

Just be aware that this is a very conservative discussion as all of the medium range models show more significant wintry weather for not just the Hill Country but counties along I-35 north of San Antonio.

In fact the Euro shows several inches of snow for Austin. Both the GFS and Euro show freezing rain followed by sleet and snow.

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF Ensembles Mean forecast 2.4 inches of Snow for Austin...Good Luck Porta!

[dhweather]

IMPORTANT NOTE

As most of you have already touched upon, I think we'll keep this thread open and encourage discussion here through March. Of course anyone is welcome to opine in the thread of Texas Spring 2015 whenever they wish ... carry on.

Staying here and sending all the positive karma I have to get SNOW at the PWC this week!

[Wntrwthrguy]

Just going off a hunch...maybe someone with more knowledge can give their opinion but this looks to be Austin's best chance at snow this winter.

[Brent]

Thought it was interesting both FWD and EWX are talking about snow...

Good cold air aloft it appears.

[Portastorm]

Just going off a hunch...maybe someone with more knowledge can give their opinion but this looks to be Austin's best chance at snow this winter.

I would say most definitely. More dynamics further south than previous events. If it doesn't happen for us this time it never will.

[Ntxw]

Just going off a hunch...maybe someone with more knowledge can give their opinion but this looks to be Austin's best chance at snow this winter.

I would say most definitely. More dynamics further south than previous events. If it doesn't happen for us this time it never will.

Upgrade from freezing drizzle to freezing rain?

Kidding aside, I think some sleet is certainly a possibility, maybe even a very quick burst of snow at the end especially to the west. It may be worth the drive west just to see if it's significant enough for you Austin folks.

[iorange55]

Just going off a hunch...maybe someone with more knowledge can give their opinion but this looks to be Austin's best chance at snow this winter.

I would say most definitely. More dynamics further south than previous events. If it doesn't happen for us this time it never will.

It's going to happen. Stay positive.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS still advertising the goods.