Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

12z euro entirely different at the 500mb levels compared to gfs.

Pathetic run. And I don't really believe the gfs. That model tends to overhype systems all the time.

Need to keep in mind GFS took Euro to woodshed back in December with recognition of 500mb pattern change

[cheezyWXguy]

I've seen the models flip flop alot, especially the euro in this timeframe, but it doesn't mean it will happen this time. IMO, if the euro continues the trend, it may be time to be more concerned that no cold or winter precip will happen here

Why? The other day it was showing a storm while the gfs wasn’t. I don’t see we would buy into one run either way when we are looking at a storm 10 days out

[Cpv17]

Well at least the CPC forecast issued today is a bit more optimistic about rain chances over the next couple weeks.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm not sure you could draw up a worse looking Euro/EPS combo than the 12z... cold air stays bottled up north and DFW goes on first 80F day notice.

So basically we could have winter or spring next week good job models

I don’t know why y’all are hugging model runs. It’s going to get cold. What we don’t know is the exact date. This MJO signal is giving models fits. Tomorrow the Euro will show deep cold and the GFS will moderate... it’s what they do.

I am damn near 100% positive it’s going to be a cold February. Whether we have storms or not is an entirely different conversation...

[Cpv17]

I'm not sure you could draw up a worse looking Euro/EPS combo than the 12z... cold air stays bottled up north and DFW goes on first 80F day notice.

So basically we could have winter or spring next week good job models

I don’t know why y’all are hugging model runs. It’s going to get cold. What we don’t know is the exact date. This MJO signal is giving models fits. Tomorrow the Euro will show deep cold and the GFS will moderate... it’s what they do.

I am damn near 100% positive it’s going to be a cold February. Whether we have storms or not is an entirely different conversation...

I agree completely. Multiple signs are pointing towards major cold in February. Hard to ignore that.

[TheProfessor]

The models are going to be hectic until they can figure how some of the teleconections are going to set up. We'll probably need to get through this current storm system and the 1-3rd(or lack thereof) before it becomes more clear on the setup in the U.S for the 2nd and 3rd week of February. So I wouldn't put too much stock in the Euro right, or really any model beyond 5 days(more like 3 days this winter ). If a snowpack can form from Kansas to Ohio(ok Ohio might not be that important to y'all ) Then it would be fairly unlikely for the cold air to not make it to Texas. I'm holding out hope for a bowling ball system next weekend(The CMC has kind of showed it). A bowling ball system would help make a larger snowpack and you don't have to worry about being screwed by a sharp NW cutoff like an amped storm

Also be very careful what you wish for, snow and a little sleet is fun. But, remember how bad the ice storm in 2013 was. I wouldn't want that to happen again, especially if it impacted an even larger part of the state.

[Ntxw]

All I can say is, stay the course. Recognize the pattern and let it play out. The mood swings go about as much as one run to another flipping

Y'all been through this before. Heck GFS earlier week had 60s and mild for this Friday!! How is that turning out holding it up?

[lrak]

So Strange, I actually had to turn on the A/C to get the humidity down today. We had a bust forecast, only a few sprinkles until the front arrives then maybe some TS. Yet it's been raining and thundering all day. I'm ready for a little dry air.

My friend has a lot of tropical plants out in his back yard and wanted me to ask if they are in danger next few weeks? He lives about a mile from CC Bay. It would take a week to get them all inside lol

We've already got a plan for the Monkey palms but all those little containers full of who knows what

thanks

[Cpv17]

Ice storm in DFW next Monday February 5th per 18z GFS.

Ice storm into Houston and points southwest of there on the following day.

[BigB0882]

GFS very scary for SELA. The 9th shows us hovering between 33-35 for 24 hours with over 2 tenths of QPF. 850 temps well above freezing so this has all the making of a freezing rain event IF temps are colder than forecast (and they almost always are). Could be a horrible ice storm for someone. Good news is that it is so far out that the odds of being right are slim to none. But the writing is on the wall for cold and for someone to get some kind of winter weather out of this.

[wxman22]

Kinda interesting that the 18z GFS moved the winter storm up by a day.Now lets see if the Euro or CMC pick up on the storm again like they did a few days ago.

[Quixotic]

I'm not sure you could draw up a worse looking Euro/EPS combo than the 12z... cold air stays bottled up north and DFW goes on first 80F day notice.

80 degrees in winter usually means the dam is about to break.

[Ntxw]

1061mb in Western Canada a week from today on the GFS that drops into the US in the 1050s. Not quite the prolific 500mb pattern as 12z but still interesting despite the stronger HP

[Ntxw]

This run really spills the surface cold with the opening down the front range into the heart of the plains

[wxman22]

GFS still has the winter storm at least for the southern half of the state.

[Ntxw]

Looks like another storm coming in behind it from the run

Pretty good duration freeze from some on the 0z GFS. Shave off 5-10 degrees . Sure beats the runs with no freezes.

[Brent]

Another storm DFW misses

[Haris]

Austin (the snow capital of TX) LOL , the gfs shows snow for me again!

[Ntxw]

Another storm DFW misses

You don't want to be in the bullseye 10 days out, bad juju

[Ntxw]

Hey how about this!



The oscillating between pushing cold or no push is in full force. Dip a little and you're 25, hold it up and it's 65 . I think I'll side with the fact the fronts won't be in Kansas and stop. Probably in the Yucatan.