Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Sambucol2024]

you can see that icy battlezone taking place in central texas on the 18z GFS, cold arctic dense air clashing with warm vulf mositure surging over the top and se ridge fighting, almost an ice storm on this run

What’s your take, Strat? Is it looking like this could encompass Southeast Texas?

[Iceresistance]

Wasn't expecting to see that on the WPC


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SeZNq.png

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 in my opinion, while the se ridge will try to be resistant here, once you get a huge dump of arctic air sitting over the north/ west central us, it has to go south, and eventually it overwhelms or flattens the se ridge, I do expect the arctic air will make it all the way to brownsville, now with the se ridge, that can help to pump warm gulf moisture over the top of the arctic air, potentially leading to an ice/ winter storm somewhere in texas , lots to watch still, but at the very least i do expect all of texas is going to get cold down the rod, potentially pretty darn cold

[wxman22]

18Z GEFS

[gpsnowman]

18Z GEFS

https://i.ibb.co/zSmkyqk/download-23.png


https://i.ibb.co/983xjpf/download-24.png

Ice Ice Maybe?

[wxman22]

FWIW the EURO AI now shows a multi day winterstorm Feb 5-6th. As a coastal trough develops.

[TropicalTundra]

Seeing snow reports up in OKC. None in Tulsa yet

[Ntxw]

Not a lot to add, the panhandle storm has trended warmer, and cold is a little more delayed on the OPs. Think it will eventually come but uneventful for awhile. Lots of rain coming though.

[txtwister78]

Wouldn't be surprised to see some upper 70's and even 80's pop up across South Texas soon. Spring type weather headed for portions of the state and then we wait to see how this pattern evolves. Could be a month of wild rollercoaster weather with big temperature swings as cold builds north.

[869MB]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1883517247001616441

[Ntxw]

Here is the latest MJO projections from the GEFS, there are other varying degrees from other guidance but all paint a similar picture. Not a strong MJO signal but technically it still has to go through the bad phases, given the nature of how it works.

[Stratton23]

Im not buying the models or the operational models showing a very strong se ridge ( models have shown that alot this winter and it hasnt verified + weak la ninas do not favor overly strong se ridges) shoving the trough back out even off the west coast, thats makes no sense with a building ridge in alaska, what we will see is a trough set up shop over the west/ central us with the arctic air plowing straight into the se ridge, we are going to get cold regardless of what the op models show, which is why ensemble guidance is the way to go , even if the MJO goes into a warmer phase its just very temporary as it quickly progresses toward the colder phases

[Stratton23]

Of course this is just my opinion, i could be completely wrong, just kind of the way I think this pattern is going to evolve, definitely will take time though

[txtwister78]

Im not buying the models or the operational models showing a very strong se ridge ( models have shown that alot this winter and it hasnt verified + weak la ninas do not favor overly strong se ridges) shoving the trough back out even off the west coast, thats makes no sense with a building ridge in alaska, what we will see is a trough set up shop over the west/ central us with the arctic air plowing straight into the se ridge, we are going to get cold regardless of what the op models show, which is why ensemble guidance is the way to go , even if the MJO goes into a warmer phase its just very temporary as it quickly progresses toward the colder phases

The only part of this where I would disagree slightly is regarding the PNA signal. We really haven't had a bullish negative PNA forecasted (SE ridge to deal with) for most of the winter. It's actually been more positive to recently neutral in the lead up to the cold we just came out of and so this is a different pattern headed into February no question than what January brought. It's still a pattern that can deliver to your point, but this may be more of a gradual step-down process where you see big warmth out ahead (unlike January) and then shots of cold beating that down a bit before you get one big blast of arctic air to finish it where the ridge is eventually overwhelmed and cold dominates.

The key to that is you need a prolonged EPO/blocking signal over Alaska and right now even the ensembles (GEFS/GEPS) are sort of back and forth on that probably due to the weakening MJO signal. I would expect models to muddy that up a bit before coming into greater consensus.

But we have time to watch as warmth is coming for a period of time. The question remains for how long?

[Iceresistance]

Severe storms later down the road


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SeaDm.gif


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SeaDq.gif

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 I 100% agree on a step down pattern but it seems like the EPS is really keeping that - EPO locked in, looking at the EPS/ GEFS they imply that with surges of arctic air and not just one big blast (initially) but of course its still far out so things can change , but will be interesting to see how long this cold spell lasts given the MJO is going to be moving pretty quickly in the warm phases ( 7-10 day warm up before the bottom falls out) before settling in to the colder phases, also how long does the - EPO last, because the WPO looks to be staying negative for a long period, if we can get the EPO to stay neutral to negative for a while, it could be a longer duration cold spell before things inevitably warm up

[Ntxw]

The MJO will likely traverse the whem/io regions late February so we may see a below normal period to end the month and beginning of March. Also do think Feb 5th-15thish has some cold bleed, as Canada and Alaska will be cold. It's the mid latitude pattern that may delay some and isn't entirely favorable like January deep into the south.

[Tammie]

BAM Weather isn’t backing down…
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188360501 ... J0be-HnN-w

[Sambucol2024]

Ben Noll
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1883534863149727779

[txtwister78]

BAM Weather isn’t backing down…
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188360501 ... J0be-HnN-w

That's interesting because having checked their February forecast...it's pretty mild across the south including most of Texas and so not sure what that post would mean for Texas specifically with some of the other factors we've been discussing on here at play. Midwest definitely more favored and since they're based out of Indiana I think, could be an active pattern up there.

I think the AO is the teleconnection that will play a larger role for us further south as to how much resistance and staying power the cold will have as it goes up against the SE ridge. I think our weather drivers (cold vs warm) are more complex down here as opposed to further north where they (BAM folks) have a colder looking /more active pattern taking shape for the month of Feb.