Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

another winter storm at the end of the run

[Haris]

The GFS shows an ice storm in ATX on the 5th then another state-wide on the 12th. Can someone pause this gfs run

[Brent]

I'd like to cash in on the GFS now

[Ntxw]

By the way the Euro has not handled the MJO forecasts well. It's been on its heels trying to catch up on the amplitude on a side note. I went back some pages and it has well underestimated the MJO strength.

This was the forecast awhile ago.



This is verification and where it's going.



Something to think about

[WinterMax]

Well, that was an interesting run

[South Texas Storms]

What a run the 0z GFS was. Multiple winter storm threats across the state over the first 2 weeks of February.

[Ntxw]

What a run the 0z GFS was. Multiple winter storm threats across the state over the first 2 weeks of February.

On top of that, I think the really cold option is still on the table. It's a highway, barrage of big highs from the Arctic to the US. Any given winter just 1 is enough to make news. The holding it up runs, in my opinion, rubbish.

[WinterMax]

Think I'll have a cigarette after that run,

[South Texas Storms]

What a run the 0z GFS was. Multiple winter storm threats across the state over the first 2 weeks of February.

On top of that, I think the really cold option is still on the table. It's a highway, barrage of big highs from the Arctic to the US. Any given winter just 1 is enough to make news. The holding it up runs, in my opinion, rubbish.

Yeah and if we do see another surge of very cold air push south into the state, north TX might be too cold and dry again to get any frozen precip. GFS shows a pattern similar to the last few winter storms across the state in the extended. Of course way too far out to have much confidence in that.

[Ntxw]

What a run the 0z GFS was. Multiple winter storm threats across the state over the first 2 weeks of February.

On top of that, I think the really cold option is still on the table. It's a highway, barrage of big highs from the Arctic to the US. Any given winter just 1 is enough to make news. The holding it up runs, in my opinion, rubbish.

Yeah and if we do see another surge of very cold air push south into the state, north TX might be too cold and dry again to get any frozen precip. GFS shows a pattern similar to the last few winter storms across the state in the extended. Of course way too far out to have much confidence in that.

That's probaby the biggest achilles heel than anything. We need good timing and something, anything to dig down the west coast. I'm with you more concerned of very cold rather than warm runs..

[Brent]

What a run the 0z GFS was. Multiple winter storm threats across the state over the first 2 weeks of February.

On top of that, I think the really cold option is still on the table. It's a highway, barrage of big highs from the Arctic to the US. Any given winter just 1 is enough to make news. The holding it up runs, in my opinion, rubbish.

Yeah and if we do see another surge of very cold air push south into the state, north TX might be too cold and dry again to get any frozen precip. GFS shows a pattern similar to the last few winter storms across the state in the extended. Of course way too far out to have much confidence in that.

Yeah I'm gonna remain concerned about that... I may jump off a ledge if Dallas misses another winter storm to the south... that's why I'm actually hoping against record cold because thats just gonna be dry and more annoying than anything

[TheProfessor]

It looks like the first half of February will be brutal if a snow pack develops here. GFS has me get below 0 on the 6th I don't even want to see the type of cold that shows up at the end of the GFS.

[Cpv17]

0z Euro makes absolutely no sense to me.

[Haris]

0z Euro makes absolutely no sense to me.

Euro has been stubbornly dry and warm while gfs is wet and cold. Who will win???

[Quixotic]

What bothers me from a NTX perspective is all precip being rain or snow has been south and mostly east. ThIs run look to cleave the precip again right at DFW. NormLly I wouldn’t worry but it’s been the theme since December.

However there is hope. The longer it takes to get here the better chance of return and overrunning.

[wxman22]

Euro did take a step in the right direction though,showing a 1049mb High coming down the plains at the end of the run fwiw.

[Brent]

the good news on the 0z Euro is DFW doesnt get remotely close to 80... even much above 70 might be a stretch

but yeah no cold air through the end of the run into the state

[Lagreeneyes03]

On top of that, I think the really cold option is still on the table. It's a highway, barrage of big highs from the Arctic to the US. Any given winter just 1 is enough to make news. The holding it up runs, in my opinion, rubbish.

Yeah and if we do see another surge of very cold air push south into the state, north TX might be too cold and dry again to get any frozen precip. GFS shows a pattern similar to the last few winter storms across the state in the extended. Of course way too far out to have much confidence in that.

Yeah I'm gonna remain concerned about that... I may jump off a ledge if Dallas misses another winter storm to the south... that's why I'm actually hoping against record cold because thats just gonna be dry and more annoying than anything

Me too, I'd rather it be 70-80 than another cold and dry and we miss out on any significant precip in NTX. I'm over winter already.

[Cpv17]

Euro did take a step in the right direction though,showing a 1049mb High coming down the plains at the end of the run fwiw.

I mean sure, I guess. Like having a front stop in Kansas a couple days before that though and basically retreating back north in early February is really going to happen though. At least that’s what it looks like to me.

[Brent]

Yeah and if we do see another surge of very cold air push south into the state, north TX might be too cold and dry again to get any frozen precip. GFS shows a pattern similar to the last few winter storms across the state in the extended. Of course way too far out to have much confidence in that.

Yeah I'm gonna remain concerned about that... I may jump off a ledge if Dallas misses another winter storm to the south... that's why I'm actually hoping against record cold because thats just gonna be dry and more annoying than anything

Me too, I'd rather it be 70-80 than another cold and dry and we miss out on any significant precip in NTX. I'm over winter already.

I wont lie... I've been enjoying the warmer weather more than the dry cold. At least I want to go outside now and not have to put on 3 layers to do it...

The dry cold literally had no advantages... the entire time it was just depressing looking at a brown ground to me and going to work like if only the snow had been further north.... If its gonna be brutally cold then I want a snow cover.