Texas Winter 2010-2011

[txagwxman]

Little has changed with the afternoon runs...Dallas will likely get it on Wednesday. ECMWF about .5" of precip (ice, sleet, then snow). There may be a chance of freezing rain/sleet College Station, but I think the cold air won't make it in time for the transition in Houston.

As for tomorrow's system, there is a little bit of warm air at the surface, which should keep it as rain for DFW...

Just my 2 cents.

[northtxboy]

I actually mentioned the red tint on Page 360, Friday, Feb 4, 2011. I thought I mentioned it 1st because I didn't see anyone else talk about it, though it's possible I'm wrong about being 1st. I was hoping someone else would comment on what I wrote, but no 1 ever did. I knew that that was just because yall's snow hadn't melted yet. Here's a quote about what I wrote: "Where I live, where the snow melt has occurred, there is a red tint on everything. I believe it to be NM or West TX dirt, sucked up into the atmosphere, dropped as freezing rain & sleet. The pattern was even more eerily similar to a spring squall line. You guys up north, whenever your snow finally melts to expose the ice, should see this red film on everything. It is very gross."

It will be interesting to see if we all get the dirt-flavored snow/ice when the next winter storm rolls through Tuesday-Wednesday. The official Portastorm Weather Center chase vehicle is in dire need of a bath.

Its Chemtrials man!!! the goverment is after us!!!

[downsouthman1]

I actually mentioned the red tint on Page 360, Friday, Feb 4, 2011. I thought I mentioned it 1st because I didn't see anyone else talk about it, though it's possible I'm wrong about being 1st. I was hoping someone else would comment on what I wrote, but no 1 ever did. I knew that that was just because yall's snow hadn't melted yet. Here's a quote about what I wrote: "Where I live, where the snow melt has occurred, there is a red tint on everything. I believe it to be NM or West TX dirt, sucked up into the atmosphere, dropped as freezing rain & sleet. The pattern was even more eerily similar to a spring squall line. You guys up north, whenever your snow finally melts to expose the ice, should see this red film on everything. It is very gross."

It will be interesting to see if we all get the dirt-flavored snow/ice when the next winter storm rolls through Tuesday-Wednesday. The official Portastorm Weather Center chase vehicle is in dire need of a bath.

Its Chemtrials man!!! the goverment is after us!!!

LOL. Ya, my wife's & my car are both thrashed, but I'm not gonna do anything about it until we are under the ridge late next week.

[orangeblood]

Little has changed with the afternoon runs...Dallas will likely get it on Wednesday. ECMWF about .5" of precip (ice, sleet, then snow). There may be a chance of freezing rain/sleet College Station, but I think the cold air won't make it in time for the transition in Houston.

As for tomorrow's system, there is a little bit of warm air at the surface, which should keep it as rain for DFW...

Just my 2 cents.

I did notice that the 18Z GFS run delayed the cold front by about 12 hours compared to it's 12Z run, which effected the onset of frozen precip. Might be a trend to pay attention to over the next few runs

[Ntxw]

I did notice that the 18Z GFS run delayed the cold front by about 12 hours compared to it's 12Z run, which effected the onset of frozen precip. Might be a trend to pay attention to over the next few runs

Tomorrow's system or Tues/Weds? JMA still looks good for Weds!!! I bet FW will be hoisting winter storm watches on Monday at the latest. I will surprised if they don't given their confidence level.

[orangeblood]

I did notice that the 18Z GFS run delayed the cold front by about 12 hours compared to it's 12Z run, which effected the onset of frozen precip. Might be a trend to pay attention to over the next few runs

Tomorrow's system or Tues/Weds? JMA still looks good for Weds!!! I bet FW will be hoisting winter storm watches on Monday at the latest. I will surprised if they don't given their confidence level.

The Tuesday night/Wed system. If that cold front isn't delayed, this will be a monster winter storm for North Texas and probably make much more of an impact/more widespread than even last Tuesday's system.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

The Tuesday night/Wed system. If that cold front isn't delayed, this will be a monster winter storm for North Texas and probably make much more of an impact/more widespread than even last Tuesday's system.

I have a hunch it won't be delayed. Also take a look at subtropical energy/storm between California and Hawaii. I think the models are not seeing this thing well. It's going to be a much more robust, moisture filled system than showed atm. GFS has been trending wetter and wetter after basically losing it for awhile. NAM has already shown signs of possible cutoff and the baroclinic zone has tightened. You have a surface low of 1005mb by some models. It's not going to be something to take lightly of imo.

Also after doing some soundings from the GFS, it's going to be somewhat of a deeper Canadian air mass than last week's system. I would bet against much ice, the dendritic growth zone looks very favorable for N Texas.

[cheezyWXguy]

The Tuesday night/Wed system. If that cold front isn't delayed, this will be a monster winter storm for North Texas and probably make much more of an impact/more widespread than even last Tuesday's system.

I have a hunch it won't be delayed. Also take a look at subtropical energy/storm between California and Hawaii. I think the models are not seeing this thing well. It's going to be a much more robust, moisture filled system than showed atm. GFS has been trending wetter and wetter after basically losing it for awhile. NAM has already shown signs of possible cutoff and the baroclinic zone has tightened. You have a surface low of 1005mb by some models. It's not going to be something to take lightly of imo.

Also after doing some soundings from the GFS, it's going to be somewhat of a deeper Canadian air mass than last week's system. I would bet against much ice, the dendritic growth zone looks very favorable for N Texas.

Yes and the gfs, along with most other models often brings these airmass south too slowly or even not far enough south in general. This is what we saw with tuesday's storm, and NTX was below freezing by 3 to 4 am, not 7 to 8 am. It would not surprise me to see it happen again.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Temperatures are cooling off fairly quickly!
Especially across the Red River counties.

[newtotex]

Just so I understand with the tues/weds storm. Are we looking at ice, snow, or a mix of both?

[cheezyWXguy]

Just so I understand with the tues/weds storm. Are we looking at ice, snow, or a mix of both?

should start as a little rain, with a brief window of sleet/ice, but predominantly snow, and potentially a lot of it.

[downsouthman1]

The Tuesday night/Wed system. If that cold front isn't delayed, this will be a monster winter storm for North Texas and probably make much more of an impact/more widespread than even last Tuesday's system.

I have a hunch it won't be delayed. Also take a look at subtropical energy/storm between California and Hawaii. I think the models are not seeing this thing well. It's going to be a much more robust, moisture filled system than showed atm. GFS has been trending wetter and wetter after basically losing it for awhile. NAM has already shown signs of possible cutoff and the baroclinic zone has tightened. You have a surface low of 1005mb by some models. It's not going to be something to take lightly of imo.

Also after doing some soundings from the GFS, it's going to be somewhat of a deeper Canadian air mass than last week's system. I would bet against much ice, the dendritic growth zone looks very favorable for N Texas.

Ntxw, that "subtropical energy/storm between California and Hawaii' that you are referring to has a lot to do with that "wake" that I mentioned the other day. I don't know if you remember, but I was saying that these "wakes" left by previous ULLs affect the next ULL, which will come Wednesday. The shortwave coming through doesn't count, as it's not a ULL. But there was a significant "wake" left by our last ULL. Based on that research that I've done concerning trowals, I believe this storm could be massive. I'm still on the fence as far as temps for Central TX though.

Not an official forecast!

[Brandon8181]

*Its important to note the below information is not an offical forecast and should not be used as such. The below thoughts are my opinions and may not be fully backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional instituion or Storm2K. For Official Information please refer to National Weather Service products and your local news office such as KXII and KTEN.

Here is a piece of my weather blog that I write in reference to the upcoming events.

Well, I first mentioned the possibility of this major winter storm potential on Feb. 1st. Confidence is growing and it looks like it will happen. Tuesday-Thursday will bring a a major winter storm to the area. I'm confident that it will not stay on the ground as long as the system we had this past week. Temperatures should warm up faster. The winter storm could start as early as Tuesday night producing freezing rain or sleet and quickly changing over to all snow by Wednesday morning. Strong gusty winds could create blowing snow and low visibilites across the area. Significant snowfall accumulation is also likely in the neighborhood of 3-7 inches with some areas seeing greater than 8 inches of snowfall. Please, continue to read my blogs over the next few days as I will update any information that changes as this storm could cause major impacts to travel and power outages across the area. Following the sleet and snow it will continue to be very cold Thursday into Friday with temperatures potentially falling into the single digits on Thursday morning. I'm very confident in this winter storm forecast as most models are in very high agreement with this system.

If your interested in reading my entire blog you can click the link below
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?saved& ... 4467094986

Or you can click the next link to see all of my recent blogs
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Enjoy the weather!

[orangeblood]

The NAM sure is digging the shortwave energy a lot further south and west than most of the other models, which could be good news for those in central and south central Texas if this were to verify.

[cheezyWXguy]

The NAM sure is digging the shortwave energy a lot further south and west than most of the other models, which could be good news for those in central and south central Texas if this were to verify.

What might this mean for dfw? From what I saw on other models was that the heaviest accumulations were up in oklahoma. If this energy did in fact dig further south, would that put us in NTX in the bullseye?

[orangeblood]

The NAM sure is digging the shortwave energy a lot further south and west than most of the other models, which could be good news for those in central and south central Texas if this were to verify.

What might this mean for dfw? From what I saw on other models was that the heaviest accumulations were up in oklahoma. If this energy did in fact dig further south, would that put us in NTX in the bullseye?

Possibly, it could bring up even more moisture with a further south trajectory and would allow the cold front to make it into the area sooner

[atx]

Can some give me an update for tonight and tomorrow? We are working over at the Super Bowl and I need to prepare for tomorrow if there is going to be bad weather. Sun and Rain are okay. Frozen rain sleet, ice and snow not good. Thanks in advance.

[Ntxw]

Can some give me an update for tonight and tomorrow? We are working over at the Super Bowl and I need to prepare for tomorrow if there is going to be bad weather. Sun and Rain are okay. Frozen rain sleet, ice and snow not good. Thanks in advance.

Welcome to the board! It looks like tomorrow should either be rain or snow, not really ice since surface temperatures shouldn't be below freezing. Of course you should prepare for anything! None of the models are showing anything significant so if anything does fall should not stick to any roadways. Here is the NWS FW forecast for Super bowl Sunday.

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow after 7am. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 41. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tues/Weds is starting to look really ominous imo. The NWS has lowered their temperature forecast, and still thinks there will be some wind issues involved.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain before midnight, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 23. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: Snow likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 25. North northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Parker_County1]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

The FW NWS is now predicting a delay in the onset of precip until after 3 PM Sunday. But based on the radar, precip is rapidly increasing to the west and northwest and moving in this direction. I would not be surprised to wake up in the morning to snow flurries. I think the metroplex will mostly see spotty light rain showers Sunday, but places to the west and north like Weatherford, Decatur and Gainesville may see rain and snow mixed, or even all snow at times. That's just my guess. But I don't have any info about the thermal profile of the atmosphere. Currently 41 degrees here in downtown Weatherford with calm winds. Outlying areas in mid 30s now.
EDIT:
After seeingthe 0Z GFS, I will revise the above to say I have no idea what tomorrow will bring. It may just be light rain showers over most of north Texas, at least until Sunday evening. It looks too warm for snow. Maybe some snow mixing in tomorrow across the extreme northwest (Graham up towards Wichita Falls).

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The NAM sure is digging the shortwave energy a lot further south and west than most of the other models, which could be good news for those in central and south central Texas if this were to verify.

What might this mean for dfw? From what I saw on other models was that the heaviest accumulations were up in oklahoma. If this energy did in fact dig further south, would that put us in NTX in the bullseye?

I wouldn't worry for one second what the NAM is showing for 4 days away or 4 hours away. It was the most persistent model showing 4-8" of snow across sw through central LA with this past storm. Most places didn't even receive 1/4 in of ice much less snow. Pretty much useless. Good for entertainment only.