Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

Oh dear Portastorm how the tables have turned for you. Years of your agony watching afar to the folks to your north now turns you to the ebullient one, with your taste of snow while we are thirsting. What an upside down world we are in, where Portastorm and Wxman57 are the voice of winter reason, despair in the lovers of cold and snow

Its been a bizarre winter that's for sure lol

[Texas Snowman]

I love you guys ... but ... after reading many of the posts today, I’d like to smack a few of you on top of the head and yell “why aren’t you listening?!”

There are people on this forum who have been around a long time and have a lot of weather knowledge. There are pro mets here who share their insights. You’ve seen multiple posts from wxman57 telling you not to pay heed to models beyond 3 days due to volatility. Some have shared posts from national guys saying the same ... and stressing that the amplitude of the upcoming MJO will overwhelm the models ability to get the pattern right at this point. We’ve got long-time enthusasists like srainhoutx showing why paying attention to indices over models is a better course of action. And he knows a ton about weather. And yet ... some of you are ready to cancel winter and you ride every model run like it’s the most important model run you’ve ever followed. You’re like windsocks and whatever direction that particular model run goes, so you go.

I’m telling you this because I’ve been there before and have learned hard lessons. Listen to the experts. Please. Learn something. I know you guys in North Texas are getting desperate. And poor Ntxw, he’s trying to hold the line with some sanity. Folks, it’s gonna come. It’s gonna happen. Calm down.

Okay my little rant is done. Don’t be offended because it’s meant with good will. Feel free to fire back if you want ... but I’m telling you guys, trust the experts here. Have some faith.

And the winner of the year’s best post in the Texas Winter 2017-2018 thread is...

[stormlover2013]

I said earlier don’t pay attention to models this far out and people get mad

[KatDaddy]

Porta has always rocked for many years!

[Haris]

Dont know if y'all follow cranky wx guy on twitter but he said this today with an illustration that has the entire threat of TX under wintry precip chance for week 2.

"Touched briefly in my entry ... pretty good bet we're in for round five of some southern ice, sleet, and snow born on the arctic dump in WEEK 2. Another classic Rio-Grande front & focus that ejects eastward after. Arbitrary ellipse...just an illustration."

[Haris]

Porta has always rocked for many years!

He is a great person! He alone has taught me so so so much over just the last year. Believe it or not, I didnt know comp models existed as recent as dec 2016 and know I know how to read perfect and know the history etc...

[bubba hotep]

The models look pretty locked in for the next few days or so and appear to now be handling the MJO pulse decently. Amped up MJO pulse through P6 looks like this:



And the ensembles are in agreement on this:

12z EPS



12z GEFS



So in retrospect, we should have tossed the longer range ensembles when they looked so encouraging showing a deep western trough:



All the models are in agreement that the MJO will stay amped up and swing into P7 in early February. So what can that tell us? Should we preemptively toss the longer range ensembles?



This what the ensembles are showing:

12z EPS



12z GEFS



So something has to give. This winter has favored a western ridge and the models seem to agree with that trend but maybe the MJO can flip the script?



As of right now, we need some changes to get some real winter down in Texas and maybe the MJO does it?

[dhweather]

Man, life sucks. The GFS does not have a CAT 5 IN THE GULF in 4732 hours. I was so ready for it, too.



Portastorm, as he usually does, brings wisdom, logic and reason. He's right too. The bipolar heat miser (or is he officially the cold miser this season?) has been a professional meteorologist longer than many of our posters here have been alive. I put a significant amount of weight in what he shares with us, because he knows exactly what he is talking about. Most of us have varying degrees of knowledge on the weather, many posters bring a lot of great insight, which is part of what makes this community so special. But I digress .....

Here's the facts:

We're in a La Nina
We're in a moderate drought

We're lucky that we've had multiple hard freezes despite the La Nina (DIE RAGWEED, DIE!!!). Typically La Nina Winters are warm and dry in Texas. We beat the odds here, big time.

While we've somewhat avoided the warm part of a La Nina Winter, we are far from avoiding the dry part. Most of North Texas is now under moderate drought conditions, and that will not end anytime soon.

I get what many people mean when they say the models busted on a forecast 180+ hours out. Now be realistic, until the forecast date gets here, how can the model possibly bust? That's been a plague of sorts here lately and it needs to stop. Models are just that, mathematics run in a best guess simulation in a supercomputer. No matter what we do, Mother Nature has the ultimate control here. Sometimes our models work out, sometimes they don't. If you've been on S2K more that a few weeks, you know better than to go all in on model guidance beyond 3-5 days. I tongue in cheek joke about the GFS at 384 hours being for entertainment purposes. Realistically, it is just that - entertainment.

A squirrel runs in front of your car, what do you do? Swerve left, right, slow down, speed up? You don't know what that squirrel (another marvel of nature) is going to do in 3 seconds. Why would you put your faith and heart in a model 7-10 days out, when we really don't know what the squirrell will do in 3 seconds.

As Joe B says, enjoy the weather, its the only weather we've got.

[hamburgerman7070]

Give it a day or two the mood in here will flip 180 . Its happened before every cold snap, you'd think we learn by now but same old same old lol

Trends today weren't good Pacific side, hopefully looks better tomorrow

Ntwx, why did the models lose the -epo? Maybe phase 7 supports this scenario? If that actually comes to fruition, it may be good night Irene.

Think they retrograde the bering ridge. That doesn't give everything a southward push. And connect west coast ridge to pole.

Ntxw, is this all part of an amped up mjo in phase 7 soon or does that not have anything to do with it? We may be in bad shape if we aren't able to get the -epo. IMO, if mjo can progress, we should be in good shape, like wxman57 says

[aggiecutter]

Tonight, all the meteorologist from the Shreveport market forecasted a winter storm for the Northern ARK-LA-Tex area, including Texarkana for early next week. Everyone one of them: ABC, CBS, and NBC. I just don't see it. Where are they getting this from.

[Brent]

Tonight, all the meteorologist from the Shreveport market forecasted a winter storm for the Northern ARK-LA-Tex area, including Texarkana for early next week. Everyone one of them: ABC, CBS, and NBC. I just don't see it. Where are they getting this from.

shrugs... not even that cold here....

[South Texas Storms]

Tonight, all the meteorologist from the Shreveport market forecasted a winter storm for the Northern ARK-LA-Tex area, including Texarkana for early next week. Everyone one of them: ABC, CBS, and NBC. I just don't see it. Where are they getting this from.

Wow. They are basing their forecast on the GFS while disregarding all other models. I don't agree.

[Brent]

Euro has a quick cold shot after Super Bowl Sunday(DFW still doesn't freeze ) just the highs struggle out of the 30s but otherwise nothing to report, warms right back up near normal

[wxman22]

Yea the Euro did move a little more towards the Gfs fwiw.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs has been inconsistent the last 3 runs lol no model is doing well!!! When are y’all going to realize to not model hug and that models have only been good with winter weather like a day or 2 out

[perk]

Gfs has been inconsistent the last 3 runs lol no model is doing well!!! When are y’all going to realize to not model hug and that models have only been good with winter weather like a day or 2 out

Nice try stormlover they did'nt listen to portastorm and likely won't listen to you.

[stormlover2013]

Lol I mean I don’t understand with some of them on here lol I mean how can u go with a model this early out it’s mindboggling, I love to see winter weather but I’m not going to jump the gun.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Despite it being warm during the day we are still picking up decent freezes at night. Yesterday was 24 and this morning is currently 27.

[srainhoutx]

I'm going to leave this last paragraph from NWS Houston/Galveston for some to ponder...

The front continues to push south out into the Gulf and models diverge quickly in the forecast. Confidence in forecast for Friday through Sunday is low. GFS solution brings over-running moisture Friday afternoon with light rain and embedded showers while the ECMWF is slower with the over-running bringing it`s precipitation in Saturday. Interestingly enough by 06z Sunday they both look very similar with precipitation over the eastern areas and coastal waters. Another cold front pushes through Sunday night ushering cooler drier air for Monday. Looking at why some of the differences - it appears to focus on how the Rex block in the Central Pacific evolves along with the branch of the polar jet over BC/ID/MT and the strong subtropical jet arcing up from Mexico and along the Gulf Coast (coincidentally the current strength of the very strong ridging over the Bering Sea and Eastern Russia is in the top 1 percentile for the last 30 years and forecast to get stronger by Wednesday which in turn leads to the question of an arctic outbreak beyond day 10). The subtropical jet will likely be the likely driver of the differences in the local forecast with a series of disturbances racing eastward for this unsettled pattern Fri-Sun.

[orangeblood]

I'm going to leave this last paragraph from NWS Houston/Galveston for some to ponder...

The front continues to push south out into the Gulf and models diverge quickly in the forecast. Confidence in forecast for Friday through Sunday is low. GFS solution brings over-running moisture Friday afternoon with light rain and embedded showers while the ECMWF is slower with the over-running bringing it`s precipitation in Saturday. Interestingly enough by 06z Sunday they both look very similar with precipitation over the eastern areas and coastal waters. Another cold front pushes through Sunday night ushering cooler drier air for Monday. Looking at why some of the differences - it appears to focus on how the Rex block in the Central Pacific evolves along with the branch of the polar jet over BC/ID/MT and the strong subtropical jet arcing up from Mexico and along the Gulf Coast (coincidentally the current strength of the very strong ridging over the Bering Sea and Eastern Russia is in the top 1 percentile for the last 30 years and forecast to get stronger by Wednesday which in turn leads to the question of an arctic outbreak beyond day 10). The subtropical jet will likely be the likely driver of the differences in the local forecast with a series of disturbances racing eastward for this unsettled pattern Fri-Sun.

Ridging over the Bering Sea/Eastern Russia is typically not an ideal spot for cold downstream into our area (yes, it could be a precursor) but that ridge location typically feeds Canada with bitter cold and without it transitioning west towards Alaska and hooking up with the eastern Pacific ridge, I don't see how it can get much of a push into our area

Unless the MJO can amplify as it transitions through Phase 8-1-2, I don't see a compelling reason to think this winter pattern will change all that much....GFS ENS Mean, which has performed quite well over the past few weeks, are going back to a very similar December 2017 Pattern. This time it appears the PV will be even further north which, without an extremely negative EPO, will be tough to force cold too far to the south. We might get a few Arctic fronts but where are we going to find the moisture ??