Texas Winter 2020-2021

[jasons2k]

One thing you have to wonder when comparing records against events like 1899 is also some of the anecdotal evidence. Back in 1899, portions of Galveston Bay froze over. Ice jams were reported on the Mississippi River down to New Orleans.

This event was close on paper, but nowhere near anything like those accounts. Just an observation.

Also anecdotal but just a hunch, I have read articles of such water systems freezing/ice floes in the early 1900s and 1930s as well with much less cold. Damming the rivers prevents ice from flowing freely down from the North, with the numerous levees and locks. I suspect also there is warming of the waterways due to human activity since then. Much harder to freeze nowadays.

I think it makes a difference, yes, by a couple of degrees, but the accounts seem to be more than that. Just my opinion after growing-up reading extensively about 1899. That's a tall order to meet and this wasn't it. This was more like '83 and '89 but 1899 was in a league of its own, and with the limited data from back then, we probably don't understand just how cold it really was.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1362489900428234754



 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1362525978052882434



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1361382815519145997



Clearly, both 1899 and 1989 were generally far colder both statewide (in TX) and nationwide than 2021.

[Ntxw]

One thing you have to wonder when comparing records against events like 1899 is also some of the anecdotal evidence. Back in 1899, portions of Galveston Bay froze over. Ice jams were reported on the Mississippi River down to New Orleans.

This event was close on paper, but nowhere near anything like those accounts. Just an observation.

Also anecdotal but just a hunch, I have read articles of such water systems freezing/ice floes in the early 1900s and 1930s as well with much less cold. Damming the rivers prevents ice from flowing freely down from the North, with the numerous levees and locks. I suspect also there is warming of the waterways due to human activity since then. Much harder to freeze nowadays.

I think it makes a difference, yes, by a couple of degrees, but the accounts seem to be more than that. Just my opinion after growing-up reading extensively about 1899. That's a tall order to meet and this wasn't it. This was more like '83 and '89 but 1899 was in a league of its own, and with the limited data from back then, we probably don't understand just how cold it really was.

Yeah I have no doubt 1899 was much colder and for a larger area for sure. Just noting ice and freezes in those bodies of water (it doesn't need get extremely just cold long enough) is getting much harder when colder water is not flowing easily from upstream as they are compared to the past.

[Shoshana]

This may be something everyone already knows, but your hot water heater still has good water in it. If it isn't frozen. Stay warm!!

Our water came back overnight. Hopefully others like Portastorm got theirs too! Was so happy when electric came back mostly so the neighbor with the generator could turn it off. We could smell the exhaust in our living room where we were camping out since it was the warmest (relatively) room in the house. We had to retreat upstairs where is was much colder but safer.

I am happy you got your water and electricity back and did so safely! Unfortunately I am now Day 3 with no water. I've probably got another 24 hours of drinkable water and retention pond toilet flush water. After that I will need to take some action. I know way too many people are in worse situations than mine, but I will concede that I'm pretty damn miserable right now with no water for 72 hours.

My sister and brother-in-law in Lewisville have a busted pips and no water. They are tapping their 40 gal hot water heater. I think he is going to try to patch the pipe till the plumber gets there Mar 3. The busted pipe goes to an outdoor spigot.

[weatherdude1108]

Pretty funny and neat little clip here from the day after the "blizzard"...


By the way, I must warn everyone that the song played in the video does have some cussing so be aware of that before watching.

https://youtu.be/d6GHutXVW0M

Ha! Did you see this one? Wild!

https://fb.watch/3MMvWoj9id/

[Texas Snowman]

When the temperature rose above 32 degrees early yesterday afternoon here in Denison/Sherman (at North Texas Regional Airport), it capped the consecutive hours below freezing streak at 251 hours.

While that falls short of tying the record of 295 consecutive hours of sub freezing weather set in December 1983, it is the second longest such streak in local history.

According to KXII TV meteorologist Steve LaNore, the top duration freeze events here are:
1. December 1983 (13 days)
2. February 2021 (10 days)
3. January 1948 (8 days)
4. February 1905 (7 days)
5. January 1942 (6 days)

In addition to the runner-up streak of sub freezing weather, we set the all-time record low temperature mark for Denison and Sherman at -4 degrees, breaking the previous mark of -2 degrees set back in 1949 and 1989.

Alas, we got much less snow than others in Texas and Oklahoma, getting only 4-6 inches across Denison.

[TheProfessor]

At least one or two more chances would be nice. I think we are going to have a rocking spring severe season.

I've been seeing a lot of comparisons to 2011 lately(this cold was even originally on that level) let's hope it's not that rocking

This has been talked about on Twitter and on another weather forum I'm in, but this year and 2011 really aren't too similar. The drought is far more focused over the Southwest instead of the Southern Plains and western Dixie Alley. Outside of that there some similarities that you'll get in any west based La Nina, but the location of the drought and the Gulf are both important for severe weather season. The Gulf did cool a bit, but it's still slightly above average and it looks to have begun to warm a bit already. How much it can warm the next 2-3 weeks will be important.

This drought is very interesting though, it will likely create stronger EMLs in the central Southern Plains and points eastward. These EMLs would be hard to break in a neutral year (and El Nino) but with a west based La Nina and the PNA expected to be negative, I think we will see plenty of lift on severe weather days. I think this is going to result in a different type of active year this year than 2011. I don't think we'll see a super outbreak this year (though I certainly could be wrong) but instead I think we could see multiple high end severe weather events that are more localized. So pretty much there wouldn't be a ton of violent tornadoes on one day, but instead spread out over multiple events. Possibly more like May 2011, but spread out over the Spring, or like May 2013 where we saw 3 violent tornadoes in 15 days.

I do think this will be a very active and possibly a catastrophic tornado season, just not in the same way as 2011. Kind of like how 2020's hurricane season wasn't that similar to 2005 but was extremely active and destructive in it's own way. One of the dangers of having multiple high end severe weather outbreaks are the same areas getting hit multiple times in a season. We saw this in 2020's hurricane season.

[funster]

Hz data showing unstable Texas grid. Texas almost lost it all. Texas should have a one of the best grids with all its resources from fossil fuels and renewables. This is more like a grid behaves in a third world country. We don't deserve fun winter weather if we can't handle it. People being found frozen to death? WTH

 https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1363150611554967553

[bubba hotep]

Looking for more winter weather? It looks like sometime b/w Feb 25 and early March might be the best last chance. After that ensembles show the cold retreating to the other side of the world. The end of Feb to first of March timeframe doesn't look overly cold as the ensembles are in pretty good agreement that a TPV stays up in Northern Canada keeping the core of the cold with it. It would probably take a very dynamic system to produce snow south of the Red River with the air mass that the ensembles are showing, better chances of winter wx probably up in Oklahoma.

[bubba hotep]

Hz data showing unstable Texas grid. Texas almost lost it all. Texas should have a one of the best grids with all its resources from fossil fuels and renewables. This is more like a grid behaves in a third world country. We don't deserve fun winter weather if we can't handle it. People being found frozen to death? WTH

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1363150611554967553

I don't know what the root cause might be but it probably had something to do with the people in control believing that this type of cold snap was a thing of the past. Hopefully, changes are made quickly, just incase the low solar people are right about us heading into a period of more extreme cold events.

[Ntxw]

Hz data showing unstable Texas grid. Texas almost lost it all. Texas should have a one of the best grids with all its resources from fossil fuels and renewables. This is more like a grid behaves in a third world country. We don't deserve fun winter weather if we can't handle it. People being found frozen to death? WTH

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1363150611554967553

I don't know what the root cause might be but it probably had something to do with the people in control believing that this type of cold snap was a thing of the past. Hopefully, changes are made quickly, just incase the low solar people are right about us heading into a period of more extreme cold events.

Infrastructure in my opinion. You can have all the energy in the world, means little if your methods of producing and delivering it is not properly maintained and prepared.

[aggiecutter]

The picture in the article below has gone viral nationwide. Jimmy Kimmel mentioned it in his monologue the other night. It is now a feature article in the NY Post. The picture and associated video was taken by The Weather Channel videographer this past week. It is a picture-video of Stateline Avenue in Texarkana. The Arkansas side of Stateline Avenue had been plowed, but the Texas side had not. The picture-video is causing a lot of backlash for the Texas DOT:

https://nypost.com/2021/02/18/arkansas- ... d-in-snow/

[Iceresistance]

Some insane cold appearing in Northern Canada. Delivery pattern may not be as great as the past two weeks but look at Greenland, wasn't there before..

https://i.imgur.com/PSycWq2.png

WXMAN57! WHAT HAVE YOU DONE!!!
Weather has broken.

It's not Heat Miser (Wxman57) that is causing this, it's his archrival Jack Frost!

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS on Tropical Tidbits is Extremely late, but it's fine on Pivotal Weather . . .

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS on Tropical Tidbits is Extremely late, but it's fine on Pivotal Weather . . .

I love what Levi has done with TT but, unfortunately, I find myself using Pivotal more and more. With Levi working fulltime and his site being totally free, he probably just doesn't have the time or resources to keep up with the free portions of other sites.

[Haris]

upload


Our fine men and women at the NwS out this together last night. Just wow....

[Iceresistance]

The Storm that gave out the Winter Storm Warnings for every single County in Texas, Oklahoma, & Arkansas has been given a CAT 3 "Major" Rating by the National Climatic Data Center with a RSI index of a 8.048.

[wxman57]

I decided to stay a bit longer in Darwin, until I was sure Houston was above freezing. Arrived about 9am today with the temperature in the low 40s and rising fast. Haven't I always said that when I REALLY see cold and winter weather coming that I'd let you know? Well, I certainly did see it coming last week. I sent word to my people at the US-Canada Arctic air wall that they can close the gate now. Looks like Houston had a high of only 25 last Monday, and a low of 13F on Tuesday. This event didn't match 1983 or 1989 in terms of pure brutal cold or duration of cold. 1983 didn't have as much winter weather, though.

[hriverajr]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/HhCMp9x/4864-EC3-F-7594-43-C0-A859-FB3252-E9-F397.jpg [/url]
upload


Our fine men and women at the NwS out this together last night. Just wow....

Del Rio hit the jackpot so to speak. It was almost worth the 4 days without power and the 2 days without water here.



Link: https://youtu.be/7KnBijSDIko

[Iceresistance]

I just got a Email from my friend (Underthwx), he has gotten everything fixed & now has running water, also no rolling blackouts for him . . .