Texas Winter 2024-2025

[snownado]

Look at those temps per GFS on Monday. Sunday looking warm also.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1738152000/1738616400-1V5HNlrKUaY.png

Beautiful...

[Stratton23]

That GFS temperature map is about as beautiful as finding mold on bread lol

[txtwister78]

That GFS temperature map is about as beautiful as finding mold on bread lol

Something for everyone.

[rwfromkansas]

Flood Watch has just been issued for most of DFW...

2-3" of rain expected, with isolated totals of 5-7"...

HRRR has a sharp cutoff on western DFW.

And NAM. I will likely not come anywhere near any flooding risk.

[rwfromkansas]

Is the FV3 pretty accurate? It gives me 5 inches of rain. Lol.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 that looks better lol, personally i dont care if we are finished with arctic air, i just like waking up to crisp mornings and cool afternoons , teleconnections are starting to look a little more favorable over the last several ensemble runs for the 10-15th time frame, that will probably be our best and last chance for any “ meaningful cold” we will see, im just hoping headed toward summer we dont get into one of those long drought patterns with the se ridge building

[Ntxw]

txtwister78 that looks better lol, personally i dont care if we are finished with arctic air, i just like waking up to crisp mornings and cool afternoons , teleconnections are starting to look a little more favorable over the last several ensemble runs for the 10-15th time frame, that will probably be our best and last chance for any “ meaningful cold” we will see, im just hoping headed toward summer we dont get into one of those long drought patterns with the se ridge building

There are signs the PDO is losing grip. This winter was similar to 2013-2014 from an ENSO perspective. Changes in the NE Pacific 500mb went against PDO of prior years. Thinking the peak heat and drought warm seasons of 2022-2024 is probably coming to an end.

[Portastorm]

The NWS Austin/San Antonio office out of New Braunfels put together a nice story timeline from our winter weather event on January 20-21. Check it out:

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/8724fd2bbee9406fbd548f2c871c703c

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 that looks better lol, personally i dont care if we are finished with arctic air, i just like waking up to crisp mornings and cool afternoons , teleconnections are starting to look a little more favorable over the last several ensemble runs for the 10-15th time frame, that will probably be our best and last chance for any “ meaningful cold” we will see, im just hoping headed toward summer we dont get into one of those long drought patterns with the se ridge building

Yeah ensembles today are starting to hint at a negative AO/NAO along with an EPO in the long range so who knows.

I actually like both. I don't mind a little cold for winter but because I grew up in South Central Texas and choose to continue to live here, I prefer warmer weather than colder. January sort of tested my limits with the cold but at least we got a little snow out of it. I could do without the summer heat and humidity for sure but then again that's the tradeoff you make when you live in the south.

[snownado]

Flood Watch has just been issued for most of DFW...

2-3" of rain expected, with isolated totals of 5-7"...

HRRR has a sharp cutoff on western DFW.

And NAM. I will likely not come anywhere near any flooding risk.

Wouldn't get too caught up in the modeled amounts/location verbatim, with the convective nature of the rainfall.

[rwfromkansas]

Flood Watch has just been issued for most of DFW...

2-3" of rain expected, with isolated totals of 5-7"...

HRRR has a sharp cutoff on western DFW.

And NAM. I will likely not come anywhere near any flooding risk.

Wouldn't get too caught up in the modeled amounts/location verbatim, with the convective nature of the rainfall.

Yeah, it seems to be all over the place in different models. Somewhere in DFW looks to get a lot.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 even though im a cold lover, i actually dont mind dry warmth, its just when you get that 90-100 degree weather with 80-90% humidity in the summer, it just becomes miserable outside, but if its a dry heat i dont mind it that much, especially after living in dubai for a couple of years where night time lows almost never got below 80 degrees even in the winter, it was fortunately a dry heat, but texas heat is definitely way worse from a humidity standpoint

[wxman57]

txtwister78 even though im a cold lover, i actually dont mind dry warmth, its just when you get that 90-100 degree weather with 80-90% humidity in the summer, it just becomes miserable outside, but if its a dry heat i dont mind it that much, especially after living in dubai for a couple of years where night time lows almost never got below 80 degrees even in the winter, it was fortunately a dry heat, but texas heat is definitely way worse from a humidity standpoint

Fortunately, the RH is rarely over 50% once the temperature is above 90 degrees. Most summer afternoons, it's 30-40% RH. Much drier in Dubai, though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

txtwister78 even though im a cold lover, i actually dont mind dry warmth, its just when you get that 90-100 degree weather with 80-90% humidity in the summer, it just becomes miserable outside, but if its a dry heat i dont mind it that much, especially after living in dubai for a couple of years where night time lows almost never got below 80 degrees even in the winter, it was fortunately a dry heat, but texas heat is definitely way worse from a humidity standpoint

Fortunately, the RH is rarely over 50% once the temperature is above 90 degrees. Most summer afternoons, it's 30-40% RH. Much drier in Dubai, though.

Yeah it starts feeling like death above 40% humidity.

[Stratton23]

wxman57 yeah 50% is tolerable here, but anything above that and its just nasty , dont think i ever saw humidity above 20% in Dubai even in the winter, but we did live with the arabian sea in our backyard, literally lol, so the seabreeze kept things in check, but once you get out of the city and into the desert, thats where it gets really rough lol

[Quixotic]

5-7” of rain at DFW would put it in the running for top 10 all time precipitation records officially.

[wxman57]

wxman57 yeah 50% is tolerable here, but anything above that and its just nasty , dont think i ever saw humidity above 20% in Dubai even in the winter, but we did live with the arabian sea in our backyard, literally lol, so the seabreeze kept things in check, but once you get out of the city and into the desert, thats where it gets really rough lol

I went to Tucson, AZ for an AMS conference in 2010. I got nosebleeds it was so dry, but 90-95 degrees didn't feel hot at all. Of course, I like 90-95 in Houston, too.

[gpsnowman]

Some people enjoy dry heat. Some people enjoy a little humidity. And some people enjoy both at a level that is mind boggling. I don't know how you do it with the climate down in Houston.

[gpsnowman]

Dallas can have days in the 90s with little humidity and it feels fine. Not sure Houston can say that. Humidity at that temp is when I am grumpy and miserable.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS is trending toward a much weaker - PNA, trough is able to set up shop over the central US, little more poleward ridging, nothing crazy, but definitely a step in the right direction , ensembles have been hinting at a trend toward a -AO/-NAO regime beyond the 10th, need to see a couple more days of consistency first to see if this is a legit trend or not