Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Actually, I think I will take the SREF numbers

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
141 PM EST SUN FEB 06 2011

VALID 12Z WED FEB 09 2011 - 12Z SUN FEB 13 2011

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE CONUS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE/TROUGH GRADUALLY MORPHING INTO A
TROUGH/ZONAL FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE.

DAYS 3-5 WED-FRI FEATURES A PROGRESSIVE BUT POTENT CENTRAL US TO
EAST COAST TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS BEFORE
MOVING EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
GENERALLY BEEN FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE/SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
RATHER THAN A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAT HOOKS UP THE EAST COAST.
ECMWF WAS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TURN UNTIL MORE
RECENT 00/12Z RUNS...WHERE IT NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL AHEAD OF
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE AS IT LIFTS VERY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THURSDAY. CONSIDERING MODEL VARIABILITY
OVER SEVERAL SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE NOT SET IN
STONE...BUT DO BECOME HARDER TO REVERSE AS LEAD TIME SHRINKS
TOWARD SHORT RANGE TIME FRAMES. ACCORDINGLY AND CONSIDERING
CONTINUITY...HPC PROGS REMAIN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/05
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WED/THU...AND A HINT OF THE GFS. THIS OLDER
ECMWF MEAN TRACKED SYSTEM SWATH SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE LEFT THAN THE
BULK OF NEWER 00/12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND TRIES TO
INCORPORATE ANY LINGERING POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM ANY SYSTEM
EJECTING OVER SERN US RIDGING ALOFT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE ERN PACIFIC
TOWARD THE WEST COAST AS A LEAD COLD FRONT AND PCPN FOCUS PUSHES
SLOWLY ASHORE. TIMING VARIES FROM THE QUICKER RECENT ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS TO A LITTLE SLOWER 00Z GFS/ECMWF. 00/12Z GEFS MEAN
ARE EVEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER WHICH REMAINS INTERESTING. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND THOUGH
TIMING CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE.

FRACASSO/SCHICHTEL

[orangeblood]

The models did the exact same thing late last week by shearing the system and making it weaker than it actually ended up being. I think the models will end up coming back around to a more robust system but the big winners this time around will end up in Northeast Texas - Southern Arkansas.
]


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[jerryh421]

Is this really the last time SE Texas will see another artic blast??

[orangeblood]

SREF members now shifting heaviest precip into Northeast Texas as well.

[swaha2]

How many inches of potential snowfall do the models predict for the NE Texas and Texarkana area? I have already had 10.5 inches of snow this winter. Been several years since we have seen this much snow.

[orangeblood]

How many inches of potential snowfall do the models predict for the NE Texas and Texarkana area? I have already had 10.5 inches of snow this winter. Been several years since we have seen this much snow.

I think there's a good chance you'll good at least 6 inches in that area from this event.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[swaha2]

Thanks Orangeblood. This potential snow event is not as exciting as the first one this winter, ready for spring.

[gpsnowman]

What about DFW? Not lookin as good as yesterday.

[Ntxw]

What about DFW? Not lookin as good as yesterday.

We'll see some snow, couple inches imo. If we get lucky (like the Ukmet/JMA is portraying) could be a lot more. Still in the long range for NAM so a lot of waffling still. Storm is yet ashore and the truly cold air not yet crossing the border. One difference with this one from last week, it will be moving slower, keep that in the back of your mind.

[gpsnowman]

What about DFW? Not lookin as good as yesterday.

We'll see some snow, couple inches imo. If we get lucky (like the Ukmet/JMA is portraying) could be a lot more. Still in the long range for NAM so a lot of waffling still. Storm is yet ashore and the truly cold air not yet crossing the border. One difference with this one from last week, it will be moving slower, keep that in the back of your mind.

Thanks Ntwx. Looks like this is a race between cold and moisture. I hope cold wins.

[orangeblood]

What about DFW? Not lookin as good as yesterday.

We'll see some snow, couple inches imo. If we get lucky (like the Ukmet/JMA is portraying) could be a lot more. Still in the long range for NAM so a lot of waffling still. Storm is yet ashore and the truly cold air not yet crossing the border. One difference with this one from last week, it will be moving slower, keep that in the back of your mind.

Thanks Ntwx. Looks like this is a race between cold and moisture. I hope cold wins.

Late yesterday The models started to pick up on a strong baroclinic zone forming in west Texas on Tuesday, which is preventing them from moving the cold front as far south as they've been depicting all week. Now if the cold front can overcome the strong southeast winds (caused by the surface low forming in west Texas) ahead of it, then the models should flip back to their original solutions.

Side Note: I would think, if there was a stronger surface low in west Texas, more moisture would be transported northward from the Gulf.

[gpsnowman]

Well, not much going on in the forum today. Super Bowl in a few hours and I'm sure we are all busy. Still hoping for one more snow storm before spring. Later gang, enjoy the game.

[Metalicwx220]

Bastardi thinks that temps of 80 are possible in Dallas before the end of the month and temps of 70 in D.C. He says a major flip is coming next next week. Time to go to the beach. Then winter will make a return to the north with warm to the south.

[iorange55]

18z nam not looking good for next week.

[cycloneye]

Bastardi thinks that temps of 80 are possible in Dallas before the end of the month and temps of 70 in D.C. He says a major flip is coming next next week. Time to go to the beach. Then winter will make a return to the north with warm to the south.

Here is the video.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/778628 ... broken.asp

[Turtle]

NWS SHV:

THE NAM APPEARS
TO BE THE WARM OUTLIER WITH ITS LATEST RUN WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN
...ECMWF...SREF...NOGAPS AND UKMET ALL SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE MAKER FOR THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THIS THINKING... MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WE
CONTINUE ADVERTISING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIXED
BACK ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE THE MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODIFIED AS THE EVENT TIME NEARS BUT
THE ONE THING ALL MEDIUM RANGE PROGS HAVE IN COMMON IS THEIR
FORECAST OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

Argh. Just less than 24 hours ago many models were showing 4-6" for me. Now all are at .25-.75" of snow. For some reason I knew this was going to happen.

[srainhoutx]

Not much, if any change with the HGX afternoon update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
302 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF ACT TO THE HILL
COUNTRY. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS NW ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...TO HOUSTON METRO AREA MID EVENING
AND SHOULD APPROACH GALVESTON LATE EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE A RATHER
THIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR/ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY OCCURRING OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF CWFA THIS EVENING. WEAK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING MODEL VERTICAL PROFILES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
THIS MID AFTERNOON INDICATE A CONVERGING FLOW FROM JUST WEST OF
GLS TO WESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY WITH RELATIVELY COOL SE FLOW OVER
THE FAR SE COUNTIES DUE TO WINDS TRAVERSING COOL SHELF COASTAL
WATERS. NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S WERE NOTED OVER REST OF CWFA WITH
THE HIGHER READINGS OVER THE SW ZONES WITH BREEZY SW FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL
OVER REGION MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
USHERING RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS INDICATED TO
PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS NW ZONES MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO DURING AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.1 INCHES SW PORTIONS OF CWFA AHEAD OF
FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT REACHING 60 EXCEPT SW PORTIONS AND
ONLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE LIFTED INDEX
VALUES REMAINING POSITIVE. WE SHALL SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS
WOULD INDICATE. FOR NOW WE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IT SHOULD DRY QUICKLY AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MID 20S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA
WITH REMAINDER OF CWFA PROBABLY HAVING MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. WARMING TREND AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED THEN.

[txagwxman]

What about DFW? Not lookin as good as yesterday.

UKMET still on...so is the JMA...

Tonight's event looks all rain to me...

[txagwxman]

Bastardi thinks that temps of 80 are possible in Dallas before the end of the month and temps of 70 in D.C. He says a major flip is coming next next week. Time to go to the beach. Then winter will make a return to the north with warm to the south.

Here is the video.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/778628 ... broken.asp

I think he is late on the party...the ECMWF/GFS ensembles last week indicated a major warm-up for week 2...

Either way, enjoy this week's cold shot, it maybe the last big one until next December!