Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Tammie]

BAM Weather is actually agreeing with Bastardi, but goes in to much more detail.. Def worth the read.
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188499474 ... J0be-HnN-w

[cajungal]

And everything I am seeing is suggesting the opposite. That we transitioning into a La Niña. And that any sustained cold is extremely unlikely and we will be above average temps for the next several weeks.

[Ntxw]

And everything I am seeing is suggesting the opposite. That we transitioning into a La Niña. And that any sustained cold is extremely unlikely and we will be above average temps for the next several weeks.

The later into you February you go the harder it is to get sustained cold the further south. It will be a La Nina-sh type cold where it drains down the plains with the core in Montana/Wyoming/Dakotas. There will be still be a SE ridge, the kind of cold being talked about it comes down to how much the cold air to the north-west will be able to bleed at the surface. It will not be the same pattern that delivered the deep cold air aloft in January.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1884955378930110970

And what data does he have to back this up? Anyone can make a statement like that but doesn’t mean it will happen. Extremely hard to get snow into Houston after Valentine’s Day

Big Joe is something of a weenie. Especially for stuff near Aggieland (his dad was a prof there) or State College, PA. If the Korean or JMA or whatever model supports a major hurricane hitting the NE USA or SETX, he is 100% in. Ditto snow. He isn't a bad forecaster IMO (I'm an amateur), he is good at pattern recognition, he just gets too excited about low probability events. I met him at an AccuWeather event in Houston, ~20 years ago. Big time body builder but not very tall. Nice guy. I followed him to WxBell, after 3 years they tripled my rate and I let it lapse. I miss WxBell models. I miss his discussions. He isn't a fan or rip and read on the model output yet OTOH he has one model show a worst (best, for snow) case scenario, he is all in.

[cajungal]

While I would gladly take another snow event for February, I know it won’t happen. May be another 10-15 years before I see a single flake. I am still in such awe over the Jan 21st event. We got almost a foot. I still can’t stop looking at the pics and videos. It was just over so fast. Wish I could have froze time a bit more on that day. Snow stuck around for several days before it was completely gone.

[TomballEd]

In more immediate weather, looks like Houston is out of the SLIGHT RISK.

[Stratton23]

I have a sneaking suspicion we will have one more winter weather event before all is set and done, we will see

[TomballEd]

Not Texas winter storms but something else not something seen every day.

 https://x.com/RadarOmega/status/1885007598866346138

[Sambucol2024]

I have a sneaking suspicion we will have one more winter weather event before all is set and done, we will see

Yes. I have no professional education in meteorolgy, but I do feel we in SETX and maybe most of Texas will have an ice storm before spring arrives.

[Cpv17]

And everything I am seeing is suggesting the opposite. That we transitioning into a La Niña. And that any sustained cold is extremely unlikely and we will be above average temps for the next several weeks.

Actually La Niñas bring us our biggest cold snaps.

[Ntxw]

Believe 4.13" of rain was the total for DFW from this system. The highest radar estimates are around Rockwall county where someone may have picked up 7-8" of rain.

[Ntxw]

Before any chatter of cold after mid month, next week will be 70s and 80s for all, maybe a few 90s in the lower Rio Grande valley. Well above normal through at least Thursday. Euro and GFS sends a cold front to bring it down to reality. Canadian surprisingly can't muster it and keeps it warm through next weekend.

[Cpv17]

Believe 4.13" of rain was the total for DFW from this system. The highest radar estimates are around Rockwall county where someone may have picked up 7-8" of rain.

Radar estimates always underestimate rainfall totals. I can’t tell you how many times radar estimates have said I got 1” and I got more like 1.75” to 2”.

[Ntxw]

This would be interesting. 570dm+ 500mb heights turning along the Alaskan/Canadian border would drive some cold with a mid-US trough.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary over the next couple of weeks, with the exception of next week's warm weather (fine with me). No major cold fronts, no winter precip. I'm quite confident we've seen the worst that this winter has to offer. The snow here in Houston was interesting, but I'm ready to warm up. MAWA!

[Stratton23]

Ntxw Yup, the Euro really spikes that Alaskan ridge poleward, not super bullish yet with the cold, but definitely noticeably colder than past runs, the setup mid month is going to be interesting to watch, but this is a classic - EPO/+ TNH pattern with se ridging and now potentially a -NAO ( or at least neutral) and -AO with a - WPO setup, thats the kind of pattern that could very easily overwhelm the US with cold air if the long wave trough sets up in the correct position, we will just need to see how everything trends over the next several days

[Ntxw]

Yup, the Euro really spikes that Alaskan ridge poleward, not super bullish yet with the cold, but definitely noticeably colder than past runs, the setup mid month is going to be interesting to watch, but this is a classic - EPO/+ TNH pattern with se ridging and now potentially a -NAO ( or at least neutral) and -AO with a - WPO setup, thats the kind of pattern that could very easily overwhelm the US with cold air if the long wave trough sets up in the correct position

There is always some kind of cold blast when you get 570+ up there in that fashion. Need it to stick on more runs. Would like the north Atlantic ridge closer to Greenland for something bigger.

[snownado]

Before any chatter of cold after mid month, next week will be 70s and 80s for all, maybe a few 90s in the lower Rio Grande valley. Well above normal through at least Thursday. Euro and GFS sends a cold front to bring it down to reality. Canadian surprisingly can't muster it and keeps it warm through next weekend.

It was a snowier and colder than normal Jan. for much of the deep south.

I mean, at a certain point, expectations have to become realistic about any more abnormal winter weather.

[Ntxw]

Before any chatter of cold after mid month, next week will be 70s and 80s for all, maybe a few 90s in the lower Rio Grande valley. Well above normal through at least Thursday. Euro and GFS sends a cold front to bring it down to reality. Canadian surprisingly can't muster it and keeps it warm through next weekend.

It was a snowier and colder than normal Jan. for much of the deep south.

I mean, at a certain point, expectations have to become realistic about any more abnormal winter weather.

For sure, seeing that much snow at any one location that far south in the gulf coast is generational once or maybe twice a century type deal. Most of us won't live long enough to see it happen like that again.

That's not to say a more typical cold snap is done with. In fact arguably the tropical forcing progression argues for spring to be delayed.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yeah its interesting you brought up a delayed spring, bastardi posted a video on weatherbell a few nights ago talking about how he thinks spring is going to be delayed by quite a bit due to forcing/ MJO reasons