Texas Winter 2010-2011

[katheria]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 062111
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SE NEW MEXICO APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING AS ALL SNOW
WHERE GROUND ELEVATIONS ARE ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET...BUT RAIN HAS
BEEN REPORTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE NEAR-SURFACE WARM LAYER
RESIDES. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION AREA TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR AND
ACCELERATING SHORTWAVE WILL BOTH ACT TO SHRINK THE COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION AFTER 900 PM. STILL EXPECT A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN SOME
AREAS...BUT IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL OR NONEXISTENT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. COULD BE A DUSTING OR UP TO ONE HALF INCH ON
THE GRASS AROUND BRECKENRIDGE OR EASTLAND THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THIS SITUATION.

SW TO NE ORIENTED BAND OF RADAR ECHOES EXTENDING FROM SE OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS CORRELATES WELL WITH FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING
IN 700-500MB LAYER. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD...BUT WAS FALLING ONLY AS LIGHT RAIN. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT THE RED RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 9
PM... ESPECIALLY AROUND JACKSBORO...BOWIE...GAINESVILLE...AND
PARIS. LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION...BUT AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OR MAJOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE FGEN WEAKENS AFTER 9 PM.

DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS
ON MONDAY AND IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTH...WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE
CONTINUING SNOWPACK HINDERS WARMING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WAS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST NEAR 54N 137W. THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH OVER THE UPPER RIDGING IN THE PACIFIC
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON MONDAY. MODEL OUTPUT ON TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
ON WEDNESDAY IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING ARE BEING REFLECTED WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN ATTENDANT WINTER PRECIPITATION.

THE AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS
COLD AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT AFFECTED THE AREA BEGINNING FEB 1.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FAHRENHEIT ACROSS A GOOD PART OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS EVIDENCE OF A MODIFIED AIRMASS RATHER THAN A
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS. STILL EXPECT A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH
TO THE COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ECMWF MODEL WAS
PREFERRED FOR TIMING AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT.

CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE TIME WINDOW FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND THE
OCCURRENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
TIMING/INTENSITY OF COLD FRONT AND STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE
SHORTWAVE. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THAT PART OF NORTH TEXAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20...BUT MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.


SKIES SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY AND THE COLD AIR SHOULD MODIFY QUICKLY
BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY SHOULD PREVENT A REPEAT OF THE 4-DAY TRAVEL IMPACTS THAT
AFFECTED MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS FEB 1-4. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVELS WARM QUICKLY IN
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE
BY SATURDAY. A CONTINUED WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT
SUNDAY...BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY HINDER WARMUP SLIGHTLY.

09/GP

[southerngale]

Freezing drizzle is forecast for me Wednesday night. What are the odds that forecast changes over to snow?

J/K - I know better.

[Parker_County1]

Let's see what the weather does tonight . . . . maybe we will have a surprise . . . west of the metroplex.
The clouds are thickening and temperature dropping. 48 degrees now.

[Portastorm]

Seems like EWX is backing off from their more bullish forecast from earlier today. Now they're talking about a slower frontal movement and mostly rain for AUS. But they did use the word "conundrum" in their AFD. Always gotta like that!

[SouthernMet]

Hmm.. (Tues night/Wed) Upper Level Warm Nose + Below freezing sfc temps!! = Sounds familiar??
Just a common scenario trending not a forecast

[Turtle]

18z GFS looks like a bit colder at 72 hour in East TX / NW LA. This could be the huge difference between snow/rain for me.

[vbhoutex]

Bastardi thinks that temps of 80 are possible in Dallas before the end of the month and temps of 70 in D.C. He says a major flip is coming next next week. Time to go to the beach. Then winter will make a return to the north with warm to the south.

Here is the video.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/778628 ... broken.asp

I think he is late on the party...the ECMWF/GFS ensembles last week indicated a major warm-up for week 2...

Either way, enjoy this week's cold shot, it maybe the last big one until next December!

That would be just fine with me!!

[iorange55]

18z GFS looks like a bit colder at 72 hour in East TX / NW LA. This could be the huge difference between snow/rain for me.

It looks a bit better for North Central and Northeast Texas. We'll if the 00z models start to trend back to what they had a few days ago as well.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z gfs in. It actually looks a little bit better, like more precip and slightly colder temps. If someone could post a snowfall accumulation map that would be great.

EDIT: iorange beat me to it haha. maybe the models have hit rock bottom already and are starting their build back.

[katheria]

flip floppy models lol

[iorange55]

18z gfs in. It actually looks a little bit better, like more precip and slightly colder temps. If someone could post a snowfall accumulation map that would be great.

[newtotex]

Isnt this usually the time frame when the models start backing off? If its anything like the last storms it will (hopefully) be back!

[Ntxw]

System makes landfall in about 6-12 hours if I'm reading it correctly. Tomorrow's runs will be telling.

Correction: currently in the process of landfall and should be integrated into the upper air data in 6-12 hours!

[srainhoutx]

FYI: Pacific Winter RECON missions cancelled

[cheezyWXguy]

FYI: Pacific Winter RECON missions cancelled

Hmm, I wonder why? Does this not seem so significant anymore, or is it because its approaching an area with sufficient atmospheric data?

[srainhoutx]

FYI: Pacific Winter RECON missions cancelled

Hmm, I wonder why? Does this not seem so significant anymore, or is it because its approaching an area with sufficient atmospheric data?

Here was the schedule issued yesterday:

NOUS42 KNHC 051830
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EST SAT 05 FEBRUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z FEBRUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. A66/ 28.6N 93.5W/ 07/1200Z
B. AFXXX 14WSA TRACK66
C. 07/0730Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/1400Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. P16/ 40.0N 164.0W/ 07/1200Z
B. AFXXX 17WSC TRACK16
C. 07/0615Z
D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/1800Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49 --
A. P81/ 26.2N 167.8E/ 07/1200Z
B. NOAA9 18WSW TRACK81
C. 07/0800Z
D. 20 DROPS AS PUBLISHED
E. 41,000 FT TO 45,000 FT/ 07/1800Z

Todays tasking:

NOUS42 KNHC 061730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EST SUN 06 FEBRUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z FEBRUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-068

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL BUOY DROP MISSION
50N 145W/ FOR AROUND 09/0600Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE

3. NOTE: ALL MISSIONS TASKED ON WSPOD 10-67 WERE
CANX BY SDM AT 06/1530Z.

[SouthernMet]

Lubbock visibility under a half mile

Edit: scratch that 4:53 obs up to 3/4 mile

[Portastorm]

Looks like we have a different synoptic situation for the Tues-Wed event as compared to what we just went through. No existing trough in place with upper level energy traversing west to east while a surface low develops in the NW Gulf. This time we have surface low development in the Panhandle and instead of it moving east ... the low appears progged to drop south and deepen some. Guess that's what is supposed to hold up the cold air? Upper level energy to come through North Texas but the GFS weakens it as it approaches the state.



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[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Winter Storm Watch has been posted for much of Oklahoma...this is for the storm Tuesday into Wednesday!!

[Ntxw]

FW regarding Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DFW

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and sleet after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Windy, with a north northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northwest between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: Snow and sleet likely. Cloudy and cold, with a temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.