Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

Fwiw the CMC & king RGEM are showing plenty of precip....

[TexasF6]

NAM says we do not get above freezing in Austin at all until Friday afternoon with this event. NAM has nailed the temps thusfar very well imo vs the other models.

[TexasF6]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_16.png

[somethingfunny]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015030306/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

The RGEM nails us pretty good.

I should mention again that the front always comes early. I don't trust the RGEM's idea that the front comes much more slowly... by extension, perhaps I shouldn't trust the RGEM since this storm occurs in a much different situation than the previous storms have.

[Ralph's Weather]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015030306/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

The RGEM nails us pretty good.

I should mention again that the front always comes early. I don't trust the RGEM's idea that the front comes much more slowly... by extension, perhaps I shouldn't trust the RGEM since this storm occurs in a much different situation than the previous storms have.

Yea, I am not near as confident in the RGEM as I was with last week's storms. It's flaw last week and even in other storms this winter has been in over doing precip in the cold air. It seems pretty good about the placement of storms, but not necessarily with fronts. If it is correct on the amount post frontal precip with this one then most of Texas is about to get hit hard.

Edit: It looks like all models are spent the front way down and bit bring it through my area until the evening. Not sure I buy that.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV has put Texarkana under a watch and mentioned putting the rest of the area under an advisory.

[SouthernMet]

I believe RGEM nailed the last 2 events with amounts that everyone questioned for Friday and then a nailed the track and QPF of the wednesday event. ( showed heavy precip south of dfw)

[TexasF6]

Local ABC so called ProMet for am downplaying this whole event. Saying it won't be bad. Really? Sunshine pumping one model huggers. Must change the channel.

[SouthernMet]

& the GFS looks very similar... But Lucy wants to warm temps up a bit Wednesday night so now temps are almost questionable for Austin.

[TexasF6]

Local ABC so called ProMet for am downplaying this whole event. Saying it won't be bad. Really? Sunshine pumping one model huggers. Must change the channel.

Same dude said no icing would occur in Austin last weekend. We had a WINTER STORM WARNING. This kind of arrogant irresponsibility makes me angry.

[TexasF6]

Bastardi said the gfs still had some errors.

[SouthernMet]

Local ABC so called ProMet for am downplaying this whole event. Saying it won't be bad. Really? Sunshine pumping one model huggers. Must change the channel.

Same dude said no icing would occur in Austin last weekend. We had a WINTER STORM WARNING. This kind of arrogant irresponsibility makes me angry.

Ouch, this guy is reckless. Nam hugger?

[TexasF6]

Local ABC so called ProMet for am downplaying this whole event. Saying it won't be bad. Really? Sunshine pumping one model huggers. Must change the channel.

Same dude said no icing would occur in Austin last weekend. We had a WINTER STORM WARNING. This kind of arrogant irresponsibility makes me angry.

Ouch, this guy is reckless. Nam hugger?

I reckon Southern. He's a Sunshinepumper. He whined about the sunshine coming back this week. He also said the same stupid thing about last weekend.

[Portastorm]

Easy folks ... we don't allow personal comments regarding meteorologists (or really anyone) on Storm 2K. You can disagree with a forecast but let's cool it on calling out individuals.

Thank you.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Porta, did the overnight model runs go drier to "make this event a sparkler instead of the grand finale" as you put it yesterday?

[Portastorm]

Porta, did the overnight model runs go drier to "make this event a sparkler instead of the grand finale" as you put it yesterday?

The NAM remains fairly dry with post fropa precip. The 0z GFS was relatively dry compared to previous runs but now it's 6z run was wetter. The CMC and both the SREF and RGEM remain the most bullish on ample post fropa qpf. And I haven't looked closely at the Euro.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong arctic front to move across the region late Wednesday.

Dense sea fog has spread inland overnight with current visibilities in the 1/8th to ½ mile range across the entire region. Fog will be slow to lift this morning and some locations may remain fairly foggy through 1000am-noon. Sea fog will plague the coastal waters and coastal counties nearly all day and into Wednesday as well.

Big story will be the arrival of another strong late season arctic air mass late Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will push into the mid 70’s with increasing chances for showers ahead of the frontal boundary. Front will reach College Station in the late afternoon and move off the coast by late evening. Strong cold air advection will result in temperatures rapidly falling into the 40’s and 30’s behind the boundary with gusty N winds. Rain will continue in the cold post frontal air mass.

Critical period continues to be Thursday morning as freezing surface temperatures move southward into the region and forecast soundings show some mid level cooling. Current model data suggests the freezing line will move southward to a College Station to Livingston line which would support a change of rain to freezing rain with possibly some sleet mixed in. Temperatures are only expected to fall into the 30-32 degree range which is very marginal for icing on bridges and overpasses especially after the warm Wednesday that will be had. South of this line precipitation will remain liquid with temperatures above freezing.

Very cold period Thursday-Saturday with a region wide freeze appearing likely on Friday morning. Temperatures could be well into the 20’s for many locations with average lows in the 25-30 degree range. Highs on Thursday will likely remain in the 30’s and in the mid 40’s on Friday under mainly cloudy skies.

Weekend forecast will feature a cold Saturday with highs only in the 40’s followed by a warm up on Sunday into the lower 60’s. GFS and ECMWF models are at odds on how to handle the next storm system over the Baja region this weekend with the ECWMF wet and colder for the weekend and the GFS drier. Low confidence in this part of the forecast with respect to both rain chances and temperatures.

[Ntxw]

The overnight guidance suite, at least that I can see, took a step in the good direction for wintry mischief. Lets see if this is a trend with the 12z bunch.

[aggiecutter]

Porta, did the overnight model runs go drier to "make this event a sparkler instead of the grand finale" as you put it yesterday?

Looks like I'll have to go out once again and risk life and limb, so you can live vicariously through my snow-ice videos and pictures:
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-014-OKZ077-TXZ097-112-
031715-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.A.0004.150304T2100Z-150305T1200Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MONROE...IDABEL...ATLANTA
305 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* EVENT...TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE COLD AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TO SLEET AND SNOW CAUSING HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

* IMPACT...MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

[Ntxw]

12Z is a step in the right direction. Much more qpf into the cold air and for the northern half of the state a mixed bag. For Austin it's still drying out as the cold air moves in but at least it's shifting everything more south an east. Get some vorticity to kick out sooner and if the cold air is drilling more south than it's showing you're in business.