Texas Winter 2017-2018

[losf1981]

Doesn't mean that much because it's so far out, but it is interesting that a lot of the GFS ensemble members show a winter storm around the same time as the operational run.

winter storm for what part of the state? Thanks.

[Ralph's Weather]

10 days away it will change about 30 more times...only consistency we had with models have been 1 to 2 days out or they flip flop 24/7 lol

Yep, these models are like the movie ground hog day. The same thing over and over. Brutal cold, or winter storm 10 to 15 days out, then poof, it's gone 3 or 4 days out.

We have had lots of brutal cold. Models have missed some , like they always will, but this season the misses are primarily when they show warmth. Already many parts of the state have had either historic snow or historic cold spells and we are only halfway through with a cold month to come.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

On my phone, can someone post our GFS ensembles with temp and precip output?

[wxman22]

[missygirl810]

Can I vote for #11?

[Lagreeneyes03]

On all of the evening news they were talking about a "four day storm" beginning Feb 10-11 and lasting through Valentine's day, and also made it clear to not pay attention to the social media posts about it, that they don't think it will happen a'la December/Christmas storm that came up Mid-Dec.

[dhweather]

Lots of dry cold on GFS with some close misses of storms..north or east of course

They real story of the 2017-18 Winter.

A whopping 0.75" of rain in Heath this month. We've had the lift, the cold, just little to no moisture to work with.

[dhweather]

On all of the evening news they were talking about a "four day storm" beginning Feb 10-11 and lasting through Valentine's day, and also made it clear to not pay attention to the social media posts about it, that they don't think it will happen a'la December/Christmas storm that came up Mid-Dec.

Grossly irresponsible of the broadcast media. As a whole, our society is now much more worried about being "first" that being correct, or close to correct.

When it doesn't happen like they are saying, meteorologists as a whole will take the blame, when its primarily broadcast media attention pigs frothing got hype and attention.

The when we have a PDS Tornado Watch this spring, people will blow it off, because of stuff like this.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Lots of dry cold on GFS with some close misses of storms..north or east of course

They real story of the 2017-18 Winter.

A whopping 0.75" of rain in Heath this month. We've had the lift, the cold, just little to no moisture to work with.

0” of rain in the last 3 months here. We’ve missed out on everything.

[dhweather]

Lots of dry cold on GFS with some close misses of storms..north or east of course

They real story of the 2017-18 Winter.

A whopping 0.75" of rain in Heath this month. We've had the lift, the cold, just little to no moisture to work with.

0” of rain in the last 3 months here. We’ve missed out on everything.

Sorry to hear that.

[dhweather]

Mark Fox keeping it real in the FWD AFD:


.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2018/
/Wednesday through Tuesday/
Lots of interesting things in the extended periods of the
forecast, but not much overall change to a dry forecast. At the
beginning, there won`t be much change in the sensible weather for
North or Central Texas starting on Wednesday or Thursday. Low
level moisture will be slow to return, with Wednesday`s dew points
and humidity rising slightly, but it will come at a cost of
stronger southerly winds. Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for
Wednesday and later shifts may need to upgrade to Red Flag
warnings.

Humidity levels continue to slowly rise on Thursday and Friday,
partially due to higher dew points, partially due to cooler
temperatures behind a cold front which will move across the region
during the day on Thursday. This isn`t much of a front, as
temperatures on Thursday will still reach the 60s, but will be
about ten degrees cooler than tomorrow. With the front, there will
be a small possibility of rain in our far eastern counties,
otherwise...another dry day. Temperatures will fall a bit more on
Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s. As the moisture
returns a bit more on Saturday and the next reinforcing cold front
moves through Saturday night, some scattered showers are possible
Saturday night. Any rain would be welcomed at this point.

The reinforcing cold front late Saturday should keep temperatures
Sunday and Monday into the lower 50s. This cold front will keep
things cool for the first part of next week, with the rain chances
staying low.

Fox

[Cpv17]

Very quiet night here after all the hype earlier today. 18z GFS really threw a wrench into things apparently

[orangeblood]

A remarkably wide range of solutions from the GFS Ensembles, ranging from normal to 40 Deg F below normal in the 10-15. But overall theme seems pretty clear - it's going to get cold, the question now becomes how cold ??

Our most trusted indicator for cold is trending off the charts now



DFW Temperature departure from normal over the next 15 days

[Brent]

40 degrees below normal...

[Ntxw]

0z GFS (medium range) looks somewhat like the Euro..

[Cpv17]

0z GFS (medium range) looks somewhat like the Euro..

We need to start seeing this cold show up under 200 hours or else I’m going to have a hard time believing it.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS (medium range) looks somewhat like the Euro..

We need to start seeing this cold show up under 200 hours or else I’m going to have a hard time believing it.

The cold is there, it is here in Canada and getting colder. It's the mechanism to send it to TX that is frustrating. Only takes a bit of opening, unless models are way underestimating ability of density

[Cpv17]

0z GFS (medium range) looks somewhat like the Euro..

We need to start seeing this cold show up under 200 hours or else I’m going to have a hard time believing it.

The cold is there, it is here in Canada and getting colder. It's the mechanism to send it to TX that is frustrating. Only takes a bit of opening, unless models are way underestimating ability of density

I think next week model watching will be a lot more fun. Op runs are just going to frustrate us the next few days imo.

[orangeblood]

0z GFS (medium range) looks somewhat like the Euro..

We need to start seeing this cold show up under 200 hours or else I’m going to have a hard time believing it.

Follow the GEFS Mean temp until we're within the 6-7 day range, I'd expect the OP to be back and forth over next several days

[Brent]

I want precip, not just boring dry cold