Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I-20 and north is snow starved, it is pretty bad and we all agree. It has been a tale of two winters in the state.


Side note:

That being said we do need to cut down on some of the banter and complaining about not getting our 1" in of snow in x location. We do not want to transition the Texas Winter threads to be like the heavily modded tropical season threads. Readers do not want to read about chat talk how it is the wimpiest, not a flake, etc in one's backyard for 5 pages. That is my two cents for the day. . State what you feel, add information if you can and move on. No one here can make it snow, at the mercy of nature

You say that, but we all know the bi-polar heat/cold miser has the controls for all of the weather in a black box by his desk. He mercilessly toys with us every season.

I stand corrected. No one here except one person

[Ralph's Weather]

North of I20 and west of I35 in Texas has been dry with some cold. The rest of Texas has been cold and with at least one winter storm. I have had a 50+ hour freeze and the coldest morning in almost 30 years along with a powdery snow that shut down E TX for two full days. I hope there is more in the second half of winter, but so far it has been a winter to remember here and for most of the state. At this point what we really need is some good rain especially with the extreme cold we had.

[Brent]

70s at the end of the Euro

Bigger story... no rain at all.

Snow is one thing but we need significant rain or these fire weather days are gonna be a regular thing in a couple months.

[Yukon Cornelius]

70s at the end of the Euro

Bigger story... no rain at all.

Snow is one thing but we need significant rain or these fire weather days are gonna be a regular thing in a couple months.

Unfortunately, 70s today, possibly 80, under a red flag warning....again. Almost every day for the last week has been a near critical to critical fire weather day.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm good as long as it get's cold enough to polish off the last of this cord of wood, which won't take a whole lot to do!

January is @ -0.6 for the monthly mean and we have had 14 official freezes for the month which is 3 more than all of Winter 2016/17 (11) and we got to see a little frozen precip (The Flizzard of 2018)

I'm not getting caught up in the EURO weeklies nor the other flaky model runs, I think February will see a good cold spell before it's all over.

Dec 2015 monthly (no data)
Dec 2016 AV 59.0/40.4 monthly +2.6
Dec 2017 AV 59.6/39.9 monthly +2.6

Jan 2016 AV 57.5/36.5 monthly +1.1
Jan 2017 AV 62.0/40.4 monthly +5.3
Jan 2018 AV 56.7/33.9 monthly -0.6 (currently)

Feb 2016 AV 66.9/43.4 monthly +5.3
Feb 2017 AV 71.4/49.9 monthly +10.7
Feb 2018 ??

[Yukon Cornelius]

Forgot to mention it earlier. Our local news is adamant about February being much colder than January. I think it’s a little premature to make that assumption.

[stormlover2013]

uh oh maybe the pattern is changing for the good!!

[bubba hotep]

Not much change on the 12z EPS, D15 has a giant ridge across the western US centered over the Rockies. There is basically no cold air on our side of the globe with all the cold displaced into Europe and nearby Russia.

[South Texas Storms]

The latest model trends seem to indicate that we've already seen our coldest temps this winter. Of course it's way too early to say that with much confidence just based on how much the models have changed over the past few days.

I can understand why folks in north TX are frustrated. Here in south Texas, it's been a nice winter as much of the region had their first major snowfall in many years. It's nice of yall to share with your previously snow starved friends here this year.

[wxman57]

Hey, my hand is still off the thermostat. I've been saying mid-February, not the first week of February. As for January, I ended up with nearly 4 inches of rain, extreme cold, and one major ice storm (Houston). Heck, Houston had more snow than Denver in December.

I'm still working on getting more winter precip across NE Texas. Kind of hard with an inactive southern stream and NW flow aloft. That could change over the next couple of weeks.

[Brent]

The latest model trends seem to indicate that we've already seen our coldest temps this winter. Of course it's way too early to say that with much confidence just based on how much the models have changed over the past few days.

I can understand why folks in north TX are frustrated. Here in south Texas, it's been a nice winter as much of the region had their first major snowfall in many years. It's nice of yall to share with your previously snow starved friends here this year.

the rate we're going Dallas gonna go many years without more than some flakes.

[Stormcenter]

No different than hurricane season folks when there is a potential storm in the Atlantic still 2 weeks from the Gulf......lots can and probably will change before then.

[orangeblood]

Not much change on the 12z EPS, D15 has a giant ridge across the western US centered over the Rockies. There is basically no cold air on our side of the globe with all the cold displaced into Europe and nearby Russia.

Absolutely incredible flip on the GEFS....EPS has been consistent over past few days and it appears to be the more accurate solution. For those who are fascinated with model patterns and tendencies/biases, this season is entertaining, that's for sure

[Brent]

Not much change on the 12z EPS, D15 has a giant ridge across the western US centered over the Rockies. There is basically no cold air on our side of the globe with all the cold displaced into Europe and nearby Russia.

Absolutely incredible flip on the GEFS....EPS has been consistent over past few days and it appears to be the more accurate solution. For those who are fascinated with model patterns and tendencies/biases, this season is entertaining, that's for sure

But people said the cold was a sure thing

[Portastorm]

Not much change on the 12z EPS, D15 has a giant ridge across the western US centered over the Rockies. There is basically no cold air on our side of the globe with all the cold displaced into Europe and nearby Russia.

Absolutely incredible flip on the GEFS....EPS has been consistent over past few days and it appears to be the more accurate solution. For those who are fascinated with model patterns and tendencies/biases, this season is entertaining, that's for sure

More accurate solution based on what? The Euro is beating the GFS on the 5-day skill score but at 6 days both models are very close. You seem to be talking about 10-15 days ahead and you're trying to tell me the Euro is more accurate? How do you know? We're not there yet. Granted, the GFS has moved into the Euro camp in showing no cold ... but some of us have also shared information that longer range pro mets have said that the projected amplitude of the MJO into Phase 7 would create problems for the models in that range.

[orangeblood]

Not much change on the 12z EPS, D15 has a giant ridge across the western US centered over the Rockies. There is basically no cold air on our side of the globe with all the cold displaced into Europe and nearby Russia.

Absolutely incredible flip on the GEFS....EPS has been consistent over past few days and it appears to be the more accurate solution. For those who are fascinated with model patterns and tendencies/biases, this season is entertaining, that's for sure

But people said the cold was a sure thing

The CPC was even on board...I think this flip caught most pro mets by surprise

[dhweather]

Not much change on the 12z EPS, D15 has a giant ridge across the western US centered over the Rockies. There is basically no cold air on our side of the globe with all the cold displaced into Europe and nearby Russia.

Absolutely incredible flip on the GEFS....EPS has been consistent over past few days and it appears to be the more accurate solution. For those who are fascinated with model patterns and tendencies/biases, this season is entertaining, that's for sure

But people said the cold was a sure thing

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!! BOOK IT!!! GUARANTEED!!!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Not much change on the 12z EPS, D15 has a giant ridge across the western US centered over the Rockies. There is basically no cold air on our side of the globe with all the cold displaced into Europe and nearby Russia.

Absolutely incredible flip on the GEFS....EPS has been consistent over past few days and it appears to be the more accurate solution. For those who are fascinated with model patterns and tendencies/biases, this season is entertaining, that's for sure

But people said the cold was a sure thing

It’s coming. Both srain and I are on the same page regarding the Euro ensembles. PV split happens on our side and mid February is cold.

I didn’t make my bet because I want a Longhorn avatar. I made it because I am confident I’ll be right. This is where old fashioned long range ‘castin beats models 12 Times out of 10

[TheProfessor]

I am going to have to say that I love the 18z GFS. It won't break my heart again right? It looks like I'm going to be getting into some multi waves of snow. Other than the Super Bowl Storm I can't remember any other week or so where I got more than one synoptic storms trailing each other.

[losf1981]

Forgot to mention it earlier. Our local news is adamant about February being much colder than January. I think it’s a little premature to make that assumption.

who do you watch??