Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[southerngale]

Looks similar to before last week's storm, right? Except *colder*.. hmmm....

And much further south! Of course it's just one run, and it's the 18z... but hey, maybe it's on to something!

*crosses fingers & toes*

[Ntxw]

Does anyone know if any new recon data went into the 18z run?

I'm not sure, but i've always been told it's 0z and 12z that gets new data input\initialized so I assume the recon data would be injected into those runs.

[gofrogs2]

I know their just isnt alot to talk aobut but i think the euro or nam comeso ut soon.

[southerngale]

I know their just isnt alot to talk aobut but i think the euro or nam comeso ut soon.

The Euro doesn't come out for several more hours, but the NAM should come out in a little while.

[utweather]

Looks similar to before last week's storm, right? Except *colder*.. hmmm....

And much further south! Of course it's just one run, and it's the 18z... but hey, maybe it's on to something!

*crosses fingers & toes*

Yeah, thats what the boys out of Dodge City KS NWS were saying last week. They do a great job of foreseeing big trends, I wish they would teach the Texas NWSs to look at something other than models.

[DentonGal]

Larry Cosgrove's thoughts this evening....it's not good news.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... iner-email

[Ntxw]

He's been pretty solid this winter. This time for once, I hope he is wrong lol

[Portastorm]

One thing about Larry is he sticks to a forecast and doesn't budge. He's not been too bullish on next week so I'm not surprised. Not saying he's wrong ... just saying he has been consistent with his thoughts.

[vbhoutex]

From this afternoons NWS discussion (DFW)

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SUNDAY
WITH EACH MODEL BRINGING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
DIFFERENT DAYS. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF [b]HINTS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS ALSO HINTS AT WINTER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OR MORE
CONSISTENCY CAN BE REACHED...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF LOW POPS AND ALL LIQUID QPF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST[/b]...BUT CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH NEXT WEEK.

What I find hilarious is that both the ECMWF and the GFS hint that temps will be cold enough for winter precipitation, but they decide to go with all liquid. Go figure.

I think the operative word here is HINTS. They do not say that it will support winter precip.
I also want to support what was said above. Don't just talk about it in here. When you don't understand why they are doing something in a forecast, especially if you see something that supports a different forecast than they are putting out, email them and ask questions. Normally, they will answer and maybe they have a perfectly logical explanation that you may not have thought of. I am saying this to everyone who questions NWS forecasts. S2K does encourage discussion of these things as long as it is done respectfully. The more interaction we have with different NWS offices the more they will realize that we are out here watching them. During Hurricane season we are in contact with some NWS offices on a regular basis and have actually had requests for information posted from some of these offices. I don't know why it couldn't be the same with Winter Weather. I'm sure we can all learn from this type of interaction.

[Ntxw]

Well to give credit where it is due, as crazy as the GFS is, it was somewhat superior for this week vs the EURO which had winter potential last weekend for late this week. A few of us mentioned to wait and see who would win out and it's warm (relatively) for much of Texas as the GFS had.

[gofrogs2]

Any new mdoel runs coming out i thought that the nam wojuld be out by know.

[Ntxw]

NAM looks a bit different via the 500mb level I can't quite explain how, just looks different than previously.

[srainhoutx]

[Ntxw]

I think instead of organizing it off the PAC NW, it's still streaming energy south.

[gofrogs2]

Is that a good thing or a bad thing

[txwxwatcher]

I believe this is what we want if one is looking for winter precip in Texas--the system entering on a more southward track (i.e. through California) as opposed to further north. I think that the further north it enters, the more impact it has on the ridging, which would hinder the energy and the cold from moving down here.

[gofrogs2]

How much is it showing.

[Ntxw]

GFS so far maintains the western ridge. THe Portastorm





Followed by the burial of North Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Some mighty chilly air in Canada...-39 C ....hmmm...

[iorange55]

Do not get excited iorange55, do not get excited iorange55, do not get excited iorange55.