Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

So if we've got a cancelled "winter" (winter precip and the like)
what does that mean for late "calendar winter" (early march) severe weather? Maybe we can get some rain?

Post second year Nina. Heat and drought will grow as the year goes unless the Pacific comes to the rescue. History says slim chance.

The drought is real, drought begets more drought.

We joke around about dry cold but the dry conditions have been since Harvey hit. I made posts about how historical cases have extended droughts after a big hurricane hits Texas in the summer and fall threads.

So a sparse severe storm season then? I have a feeling then by your comments the cap will be there, and strong. I remember seeing things earlier saying we'd have an active tornado season, but that's one thing I can do without. I was driving through Canton, TX during the tornadoes in April and it was horrifying and scary.

Big severe seasons come from big western troughs digging out often. We can't even get one to dig, and they are staples of Ninas. I have no clue what severe season will be like, just that the odds of a wet spring is not a good bet from the current players

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, i will hang on until mid Feb and then I will throw in the towel. I want to see how this pv split or SSW works out. If it don't, then at that point it's probably game over. Srainhoustx said watch the teleconnections next week and if they change, then we may be in good shape

[wxman22]

0z CMC still looks interesting.

[wxman22]

GFS shows the system also

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah 0z GFS and Canadian look interesting for late next week. Hope the Euro comes on board in a few hours.

[Brent]

omg a system in the WEST

[Ntxw]

The AO/NAM region seems to reshuffle late on the GFS. It clogs the wavelengths and changes the pattern some. Perhaps hints of strat changes?

[hamburgerman7070]

The AO/NAM region seems to reshuffle late on the GFS. It clogs the wavelengths and changes the pattern some. Perhaps hints of strat changes?

Ntxw, what is the NAM? Or did u mean nao?

[Brent]

Euro looks a bit colder(nothing major) but no precip that I can see

[Ntxw]

Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, 6 more weeks of winter.

Question now is...does wxman57 see his shadow?

[Ntxw]

The AO/NAM region seems to reshuffle late on the GFS. It clogs the wavelengths and changes the pattern some. Perhaps hints of strat changes?

Ntxw, what is the NAM? Or did u mean nao?

Northern Annular Mode. Conjuction of AO/NAO and the broader Northern Hemisphere variations

[orangeblood]

So if we've got a cancelled "winter" (winter precip and the like)
what does that mean for late "calendar winter" (early march) severe weather? Maybe we can get some rain?

Post second year Nina. Heat and drought will grow as the year goes unless the Pacific comes to the rescue. History says slim chance.

The drought is real, drought begets more drought.

We joke around about dry cold but the dry conditions have been since Harvey hit. I made posts about how historical cases have extended droughts after a big hurricane hits Texas in the summer and fall threads.

Here are the years where the Pacific came to the rescue with an El nino off a nina sometimes back to back. They definitely look more appealing during the summer months



It does have some model support as well

[Ntxw]

The biggest drawback from that is, we came off a Super El Nino in 2015-2016. The two other Supers of the 20th century dipped to a third cold ENSO per ONI. 1983-1985, 1998-2000. Given sample size is small. Significant drought accompanied both periods

[wxman57]

Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, 6 more weeks of winter.

Question now is...does wxman57 see his shadow?

I saw my shadow! Enjoy your last 6 weeks of winter...

[utweather]

Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, 6 more weeks of winter.

Question now is...does wxman57 see his shadow?

I saw my shadow! Enjoy your last 6 weeks of winter...

lol, wouldn't surprise me. Time to adapt. I did have a love hate relationship with the cold though. It was nice to have, but just felt cold - grrrr. I will hate the heat soon enough though so yes 6 weeks to enjoy!!!

[Tejas89]

January was almost dead-on normal temp-wise at DFW. -.01 mean. Just reinforces how hard it is to get a below normal month these days lol.

[wxman57]

Pretty cold in Houston in January. Significant ice storm on the 16th. Couple of light snow events. Most significant winter we've had in many years.

STATION: HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL
MONTH: JANUARY
YEAR: 2018
LATITUDE: 29 58 N
LONGITUDE: 95 21 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 48.7 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 3.06
DPTR FM NORMAL: -4.5 DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.32
HIGHEST: 75 ON 21
LOWEST: 19 ON 17
SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL
TOTAL MONTH: 0.1 INCH
GRTST 24HR 0.1 ON 16-16
GRTST DEPTH: 0

[NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]
MAX 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 9
MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 5
MIN 32 OR BELOW: 10 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 3

[orangeblood]

[Portastorm]

Looking back at January 2018 for Austin, we were very dry and cold. The airport averaged a mean temp 2.6 below normal while Mabry averaged 1.7 below normal. Precip deficit compared to normal totals was about 1.95" below normal.

[JDawg512]

My impatience is growing. January was not good at all for moisture. We are already seeing fires break out, let's be clear though, it's not just the drier soils, these hard freezes killing, drying and browning vegitation are exacerbating the problem and it will only get worse.