Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

Well, if you wanted mixed signals from the 0z model suite tonight, you definitely got it.

"King Euro" says what cold??? Lol
GFS brings manageable cold for a few days (12th-13th) but nothing earth shattering
CMC goes into Ice Age territory (what else is new)

GEPS aligns more with its operational. GEFS doesn't look terribly cold for Texas (warmer than its operational). Waiting on EPS but boy that OP looks rough.

[Stratton23]

EPS is meh, so we have what i like to call the three Goldilock scenarios, One Cold, One Warm, and One in the middle to summarize the three ensemble groups, its anyones guess which ones right lol

[wxman22]

It was 88 degrees yesterday evening and now it’s 37 here this morning lol.

[orangeblood]

Teleconnections are all lining up now except ONE and that one happens to be arguably the most important one for us in the southern plains....The Negative EPO. Ensembles are going positive after the Feb 12. Going to need it negative to get enough Upper Level support to break wxman57's wall! Without it, most of the cold will be from Montana to the Midwest

[Lastcall88]

Anything above 60 is considered brutal heat lol

brutal heat? 70-85 is perfect weather, love coaching in this vs 35 degrees. Im sending my girls to help with wxman wall!

[Lastcall88]

While is will be chilly next week, current forecast highs are upper 40s to mid 50s, lows in the low 30s. Again that is the current projected temps.

I'm skeptical that the front makes it past central TX. I think NTX will see some low 40s for highs and some upper 20s for lows. Winter isn't over for NTX, at least not till mid March, then Spring kicks in.

This is the kind of setup that drives the cold all the way deep into Mexico. This will struggle to reach the Deep South but but each successive front will drive the cold through Texas and after Valentine's it will drive into Mexico. The storm track will not be so suppressed like January though with the track being more like coastal TX through LA and into W TN. East of that line will not see much cold. This set up has staying power with the severe blocking across the polar regions. Even with this mild start Feb likely will be another below average month for TX.

Come on ralph, i was hoping for an above average rest of february. This is tourney month and we have 3 that really don't wanna coach in 30 degree weather on thursday friday and saturdays

[Ntxw]

Weird day across the state. I-20 north cools off quite a bit, and cold in the Panhandle and Red River. The cold front may reach as far as just south of Waco. Hot to the south everywhere.

[Ntxw]

GFS was not good with the boundary for today basically every run prior.





What's even more atrocious is this past weekend's run of the GFS WF was supposed to be 80s according to this model for today and it's currently 36F up there.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx more proof that the GFS cant see cold air at all, almost a 40 degree miss, just a bit off haha

[Stratton23]

Lastcall88 na anything above 60 in the winter is an atrocity

[orangeblood]

GFS was not good with the boundary for today basically every run prior.


What's even more atrocious is this past weekend's run of the GFS WF was supposed to be 80s according to this model for today and it's currently 36F up there.

Not sure who's more INSANE...the GFS or the Dallas Mavericks GM ??

Nothing really improves with that model, maybe DOGE can save it!!

[Brent]

GFS was not good with the boundary for today basically every run prior.

https://i.imgur.com/zt495xt.png

https://i.imgur.com/MZofCTL.png

What's even more atrocious is this past weekend's run of the GFS WF was supposed to be 80s according to this model for today and it's currently 36F up there.

Yeah nobody had our high of 45 today here(83 yesterday) even on the news last night I was seeing 50

DOGE does need to look into how terrible the GFS is

[Ntxw]

I picked on the GFS but the other major OPs including euro and Canadian didn't do well either a few runs ago. Moral here is they all struggled in the battle where upper flow says it should be warmer but the lower level cold says no. It's that cold north battle vs warm south.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What a difference from yesterday when we were already in the 70s at this time. It’s currently 35 at my house.

[Stratton23]

Pretty drastic differences between the GFS and CMC at day 7, just goes to show the uncertainty in the pattern is still very high

[Cpv17]

Pretty drastic differences between the GFS and CMC at day 7, just goes to show the uncertainty in the pattern is still very high

Models struggling to see the shallow cold air vs the SE ridge.

[wxman22]

Both the 12z GFS and ICON show snow here next Tuesday. With the CMC showing a sleet storm in the Metroplex. FWIW

[TomballEd]

Both the 12z GFS and ICON show snow here next Tuesday. With the CMC showing a sleet storm in the Metroplex. FWIW

If you take the GFS solution and subtract a few degrees because of the time range and resolution, the ice storm in DFW could happen. Pretty sure it is a cold rain here, which is ok, its Winter Break next week from school and I'm getting my eye fixed and wouldn;t be able to appreciate the ice.

[orangeblood]

Both the 12z GFS and ICON show snow here next Tuesday. With the CMC showing a sleet storm in the Metroplex. FWIW

CMC has gone off the rails....1071 HP NW Canada early next week

[orangeblood]

Both have decent qpf for next Tuesday into Wednesday but as usual, different with surface temps. Big implications. Just look at surface temps across the Central Plains b/w the two models

Next Tuesday Evening