Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

Nope not reeling me back in yet...winter cancel

I agree 100% tbh. Need to see this inside 3 days

[Ntxw]

Nope not reeling me back in yet...winter cancel

You know you can't resist . Once a model addict, always a model addict. Just because it is a little intriguing you will be checking the 0z runs on cue

[Ntxw]

Looks like Euro bunch decided to join in on the SSW

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/959543178549514240




If this does happen I think it will be the first true SSW (wind reversal) since 2012?

[bubba hotep]

The last few runs of the EPS have certainly been trending in the right direction. The 12z today had about 10 members with some kind of winter wx into N. Texas and there were some members with single digit lows. The models have a lot of energy diving into the SW with some cold air over the top, as others have said, it comes down to timing. Also, we have to actually see that energy dig into the SW and not just round the ridge into a positive tilted sheared out trough.

[South Texas Storms]

0z models continue to look interesting for next weekend. German model is showing a widespread ice storm across much of TX.

[Brent]

some frozen precip in West Texas on the GFS next weekend... just rain for most

a LOT of rain on the GFS in the long range... maybe at least it'll rain

Over 3" of rain at DFW this run and most of it is a chilly rain in the long range

[hamburgerman7070]

Southtexastorms, how long does it take for the models to latch on to a potential pv split or SSW event? I've been reading on twitter and various other places and its hard to decipher anything. I know these events are tricky, but its been a long time since we have had one. I think if this split don't work out for us, we can give up on winter imo.

[Brent]

Euro appears to be real close to a winter storm in Dallas next Saturday Night

Definitely at least some light snow as the precip ends early Sunday, lot of precip before that with falling temps

[wxman22]

0z Euro is onboard

[Brent]

on the snow depth map several inches NW of DFW including Wichita Falls

up to 2 inches in DFW, highest NW

I'll believe it when I see it

[wxman22]

Also interesting is nearly all of the GFS ensemble's show a winter storm.

[Cpv17]

Also interesting is nearly all of the GFS ensemble's show a winter storm.

Do any of them show anything for SE TX?

[wxman22]

A few of them bring frozen precip to southeast Texas fwiw

[Cpv17]

06z GFS is completely different at the 500mb level compared to the past few runs. As a result, not showing much precipitation.

[srainhoutx]

Current temperature in our source region of Northwest Territory Canada at Rabbit Kettle is -51.7F

[hriverajr]

06z GFS is completely different at the 500mb level compared to the past few runs. As a result, not showing much precipitation.

It dampens out the SW energy..

[Ntxw]

NAM is optimistic for the panhandle. While this isn't saying much for the rest of the state, the fact that something is going to dig in the Great Basin is a good sign of change. Amarillo (finally!) to OKC may get some snow in the coming days

[Ralph's Weather]

I really hope this pattern brings good snow to NM mountains. Sipapu averages around 200" of snow per season and they are atound 22" I believe so far.

[DonWrk]

Is Amarillo on tap for any kind of record least amount of snowfall or anything close to that? I can't remember a year where it's been so lackluster up that way.

[Ntxw]

Is Amarillo on tap for any kind of record least amount of snowfall or anything close to that? I can't remember a year where it's been so lackluster up that way.

Record for Amarillo least in a season is 0.1" 1949-1950. Currently they sit at a trace. Average to date is around 11"

However Amarillo is a place of extremes. In one swoop they can get a blizzard in March or April and cash in