Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

orangeblood definitely looks a little interesting lol, but also given that the GFS had 80’s in north texas right now, and some areas are in the 30’s, definitely makes me very wary of the GFS and its extremely poor track record of handeling low level cold air

[Wntrwthrguy]

Crazy Canadian has been way too cold all winter on temps. No reason to trust it now.

[Stratton23]

While thats true, id still trust the CMC more than the GFS with surface temperatures when it comes to shallow cold air, the GFS was off by almost 50 degrees today in north texas, that right away tells me all i need to know

[orangeblood]

Crazy Canadian has been way too cold all winter on temps. No reason to trust it now.

But care to give us a reason to trust the alternative GFS ??

[orangeblood]

But overall, next week is starting to look a lot more interesting for winter weather. Really promising setup considering the model temp output is likely too warm on Euro and GFS. Even Euro AI is coming around to a couple of systems next week

[Cpv17]

Crazy Canadian has been way too cold all winter on temps. No reason to trust it now.

The one thing the Canadian has going for it is that it does a much better job down here of seeing the shallow cold air and just how far it presses south compared to the other models.

[Cpv17]

Both the 12z GFS and ICON show snow here next Tuesday. With the CMC showing a sleet storm in the Metroplex. FWIW

CMC has gone off the rails....1071 HP NW Canada early next week

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/namer/mslp/1738670400/1739210400-xhhfR3wFlvc.png

Oh how I would love for that to actually verify lol

[Sambucol2024]

Both the 12z GFS and ICON show snow here next Tuesday. With the CMC showing a sleet storm in the Metroplex. FWIW

CMC has gone off the rails....1071 HP NW Canada early next week

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/namer/mslp/1738670400/1739210400-xhhfR3wFlvc.png

Oh how I would love for that to actually verify lol

Agree! Maybe it will verify.

[txtwister78]

Everyone knows the bias the CMC has and considering the last two cold events we've had it's been less than reliable with temps and so right now I'd have to go with a blend between the GFS and Euro. Both ensembles show a neutral to slightly positive EPO trend mid-month via their telconnection outputs and the OP's seem to be more aligned with that signal for now.

Yes, we cool down considerably for a few days next week compared to where things stand this week, but right now nothing suggest this is going to put us back into a deep freeze or introduce widespread winter weather across the state. Obviously, that can still change (leaving the door open for a colder trend CMC type solution) but the EPO trends are definitely a sign that the core of the coldest temps may stay bottled up over the northern/Central plains points east.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 Problem with the EPO is the ensembles keep flip flopping over a-EPO or positive, on weatherbell the teleconnections on the ensembles get updated every 6 hours, and every run has been up or down on the EPO on the ensembles the past several days so no clear trend , its been trending up and down, looking for a potential change back to a -EPO in the coming days largely due to one factor I think is giving the models considerable trouble is the MJO, the MJO is clearly heading toward phases 8 and potentially 1 and 2, I think alot of the guidance is still warm biased because the MJO is still in its warm phase, watching to see if models start to catch on to the MJO once it moves into the colder phases, CMC has the right idea, looks like phase 8/1 on its run, i could be wrong and the MJO is irrelevant here and the coldest air stays to the north as you said, just thought id give my two cents

[mmmmsnouts]

In the meantime, shocking temperature bust today. It’s down to 52 degrees at DFW. And here I sent the kids to school without jackets because it was 67 at 7 am.

[Ntxw]

Couple of thoughts I've been looking at.

First the February 1989 analog has been the dominant one in terms of 500H progress in our current state and medium to long term. The daily SOI has been consistently positive since mid-January which has set up this La Nina-like base we are in with the shift to warmth and eventually cold. We are seeing it with the MJO movement and wild swings in temperature (Ninas are notorious for warmth and sharp periods of cold) in our region.

MJO





Late Jan 1989 and the start of Feb was very warm, we will be a little warmer longer than that year with cold delayed compared but the progression is usable. This was largely west of the MS River type outbreak and somewhat shallow in nature. There was a significant ice storm from Texas all the way down to Corpus Christi on north and northeast.







The mainland of North America also saw 1078mb high pressure which is the continental record holder outside of Greenland on January 30, 1989 at Northway Alaska.

As for models, how they project the big 500mb ridge up in Alaska will determine what they show downstream. 560dm+ up there usually is a good driving force for shallow cold. We do have a big -AO on the way, so I'd increase the risk models will look colder the second half of the month. Once we get out of this warmth it's quite possible we will stay chilly through the rest of Feb and into early March.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw do you think the models maybe having trouble with the cold right now because the MJO is still technically in a warm phase but its definitely headed toward phase 8? Doesnt seem like models get a good grasp on when the MJO moves into a colder phase

[Ntxw]

Ntxw do you think the models maybe having trouble with the cold right now because the MJO is still technically in a warm phase but its definitely headed toward phase 8? Doesnt seem like models get a good grasp on when the MJO moves into a colder phase

I'm not a big fan of going with the OPs verbatim. I like using teleconnections and analogs and see if the they go towards the idea. Much like what's happening up in N and NW Texas today, the models will struggle up close to an event because the upper flow and surface are not making it easy. Everything points to colder second half of February, as the first half is warm which was seen well out. I don't think the models have a grasp yet what do to with the Alaskan blocking, the variance between runs amplifies that thought.

[Stratton23]

Euro 12z definitely made a big jump back cold again

[wxman57]

Euro 12z definitely made a big jump back cold again

I was just observing the opposite. On Pivotal's website, the EC is in through 180 hrs. No significant cold fronts through SE TX by 180 hrs. It gave up on Sunday night's front, as did the GFS.

Update: EC in through 276 hrs and shows a storm moving across north TX with winter precip. Not very cold, though, upper 20s in the D-FW area and upper 30s in Houston on Sunday, the 16th.

[orangeblood]

Pretty wild differences by day 8 on Ensembles

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile struggling to get out of low 50s and northerly wind at the casa. While not impressively cold, AC got a surprise break when I thought it would be running all week. Also has helped the cedar sniffles, felt the difference with wind shift.

[Iceresistance]

Meanwhile struggling to get out of low 50s and northerly wind at the casa. While not impressively cold, AC got a surprise break when I thought it would be running all week. Also has helped the cedar sniffles, felt the difference with wind shift.

I almost needed to turn on the AC

This morning, the house was cold!

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile struggling to get out of low 50s and northerly wind at the casa. While not impressively cold, AC got a surprise break when I thought it would be running all week. Also has helped the cedar sniffles, felt the difference with wind shift.

Meanwhile here in the capital of Texas, it’s 82° under bright sunshine! Spring has sprung.