Texas Winter 2017-2018

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Current temperature in our source region of Northwest Territory Canada at Rabbit Kettle is -51.7F

Is that cold?

[bubba hotep]

The 00z Euro run was interesting but is an outlier with only about 20% of the EPS members supporting that solution. However, the EPS mean has trended towards a more favorable setup for Texas and is starting to line up with MJO P7 analogs.

00z Thursday



00z Saturday



MJO P7



The models have had a hard time this winter holding onto any systems that they dig into the SW in the longer range. We are looking at a system that is only about 7 days out on the Euro. The Euro wheel house is about D5, so maybe Monday we will start to pin down some of the larger scale details?

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is kinda like the 6z GFS and doesn't dig into the southwest. It's still a big storm and front incoming but probably not as wet as yesterday's runs and flatter.

CMC still digging big SW trough

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is kinda like the 6z GFS and doesn't dig into the southwest. It's still a big storm and front incoming but probably not as wet as yesterday's runs and flatter.

CMC still digging big SW trough

We are getting into the range that the GFS tends to fumble away leads in the model wars lol

However, the 12z GFS matches up better with the winter long pattern.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is kinda like the 6z GFS and doesn't dig into the southwest. It's still a big storm and front incoming but probably not as wet as yesterday's runs and flatter.

CMC still digging big SW trough

We are getting into the range that the GFS tends to fumble away leads in the model wars lol

However, the 12z GFS matches up better with the winter long pattern.

Meh even the GFS would only take a little more digging. But you're right you go with the winter trend until it happens.

CMC is pretty close to a major winter storm west of I-35

[wxman22]

[orangeblood]

Some incredible warming in the stratosphere appears like it could come to fruition...this looks like over 60 plus Deg C warming in only a matter of a couple of weeks. How fast and where this effects the mid-troposphere is still a big question mark but should expect a lot of volatility in the models to continue

[South Texas Storms]

Is Amarillo on tap for any kind of record least amount of snowfall or anything close to that? I can't remember a year where it's been so lackluster up that way.

They have gone about 110 days without measurable precip there...and that's the current record. They really need precip.

[Brent]

Euro looks cold but a lot drier

[bubba hotep]

lol.... 12z Euro says, "What energy into the SW? What rain?"

[Cpv17]

lol.... 12z Euro says, "What energy into the SW? What rain?"

Exactly lol like I said yesterday I need to see something inside 3 days before I get too excited. And the GFS has another system in the long range for us. That one will probably go poof too just like the one for next weekend did unless the ensembles are saying something different?

[Brent]

Man the euro killed this thread

[Texas Snowman]

It’s Saturday evening.

Besides, you’ve already called “Winter Cancel,” so everyone is waiting for spring.

[NotSparta]

It’s Saturday evening.

Besides, you’ve already called “Winter Cancel,” so everyone is waiting for spring.

To add to the winter cancel, wxman57 might be turning back into the heat miser

[South Texas Storms]

It’s Saturday evening.

Besides, you’ve already called “Winter Cancel,” so everyone is waiting for spring.

Should we get the spring thread started?

[Ntxw]

It’s Saturday evening.

Besides, you’ve already called “Winter Cancel,” so everyone is waiting for spring.

Should we get the spring thread started?

Why bother, we'd just need a button to complain about no rain and dry for spring and summer threads . We are heading down that direction anyway with drought

Even Bastardi today in his Sat summary is conceding hot summer centered in Texas

So enjoy the pleasant temperatures for a few more weeks. 100 in April and May are not unheard of

[Texas Snowman]

It’s Saturday evening.

Besides, you’ve already called “Winter Cancel,” so everyone is waiting for spring.

Should we get the spring thread started?

Why bother, we'd just need a button to complain about no rain and dry for spring and summer threads . We are heading down that direction anyway with drought

Even Bastardi today in his Sat summary is conceding hot summer centered in Texas

So enjoy the pleasant temperatures for a few more weeks. 100 in April and May are not unheard of

Then I may take a vacation like Portastorm did. There’s already enough whining, complaining, and grumpiness with every flip flopping run of the models.

And it’s still wintertime!

[Brent]

It’s Saturday evening.

Besides, you’ve already called “Winter Cancel,” so everyone is waiting for spring.

Should we get the spring thread started?

Are we gonna have a spring?

[bubba hotep]

Some low end svr wx chances for DFW on Tuesday and the 00z GFS is actually a decent soaking with those storms.

[Brent]

Some low end svr wx chances for DFW on Tuesday and the 00z GFS is actually a decent soaking with those storms.

NBC 5 just had a 70% chance of rain Tuesday, I did a double take lol, this morning it was like 30-40% it seems

GFS next Saturday Night, brief very brief mix in DFW