Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

That's not encouraging signal if you want big cold and while yes, the teleconnections have flipped flopped a bit (in particular the NAO/AO) the EPO is trending in a direction that at minimum leaves open for debate how much cold we're really talking about late next week across much of Texas.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 we will see, the 12z Operational Euro run went back to a - EPO, lets see if that leads to any changes in the 00z data, definitely a complex pattern for sure, but when is it ever not lol?

[South Texas Storms]

That's not encouraging signal if you want big cold and while yes, the teleconnections have flipped flopped a bit (in particular the NAO/AO) the EPO is trending in a direction that at minimum leaves open for debate how much cold we're really talking about late next week across much of Texas.

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1738670400-RJRnT62QuFkgrb2.png

Yeah I remain confident that we have likely already seen the coldest temperatures of winter across the southern half of the state. Could we see a few more freezes though? Definitely. But anything below 25F along and south of IH-10 still seems unlikely to me later this month.

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 we will see, the 12z Operational Euro run went back to a - EPO, lets see if that leads to any changes in the 00z data, definitely a complex pattern for sure, but when is it ever not lol?

At this range Op's will continue to flip flop as Euro has but the ensembles are best bet. My feeling is I'd rather see things trending lower regarding EPO as opposed to seeing it trending positve if I'm looking for sustained cold in 8- 10 days

Even the GPS is only slightly negative headed into late next wk. GEFS more neutral but all coming out of a more negative range. So it's not just the EPS even though it's certainly the most bullish at bringing us into a +EPO

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 yeah i cant argue against that, but at the same time the EPO is trending toward neutral ( just averaging it out on the three ensemble groups) the MJO is going into phase 8, this definitely is going to be difficult to iron out the details when you got some murkiness in the forecast, definitely will probably be another 4-5 days before we get a real good idea of whats gonna happen or now, a stretch of the polar vortex has been occuring so i think that only adds yet another layer of uncertainty

[Ntxw]

We can work with a weaker EPO, 2021 was not that impressive EPO wise. If you want a miniature delayed version of that, you'd want the -AO placement over Hudson Bay and the Davis Straits.

[Ntxw]

18z NAM says front is a little stubborn to retreat tomorrow, and stays relatively cooler than forecast north of I-20.

Euro has us all back to near 80 with the Canadian, GFS into the 70s. Interesting little battle going on! Still quite warm southern half of the state through Saturday.

[Portastorm]

Gotta love Texas weather and just how different in can be at two places in the same state. At 3 pm, it was 30° in Perryton and 90° down in Cotulla.

That’s one heck of a frontal boundary difference!

[Ntxw]

The colder air mass is also very shallow, you can see the Ouchita mountains blocking it in NE/E Texas. Skew Ts also show it's near the surface with much warmth above.

DFW


Near Perryton Panhandle.

[txtwister78]

For those that have WB, Bastardi just posted an extended video and does a pretty deep dive into the MJO and teleconnections. Acknowledges the EPO signal on the EPS and literally says "you're not driving 25 degree cold into the RGV with that" because pacific air gets into the pattern with that. Also acknowledges the MJO isn't the end all be all relative to the 500mb and provides some examples of that despite the various phases albeit not as strong/amplified.

All this to say basically he's starting to have some doubts about cold deep into Texas which is where I continue to be.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 still too early in my opinion, bastardi is good at pattern recognition, but jeez luis does the guy flip his stance so frequently, yesterday his blog was about watching out for big cold in texas, and now suddenly today its the opposite, I just dont like that, if youre gonna make videos, you might as well stand youre ground on either warmth or cold, flip flopping just sends mixed signals in my eyes

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 still too early in my opinion, all cards are on the table, just this time yesterday he also said texas was in the cards for potential big cold, and then. he reverses that thinking a day later, for all we know the EPS could easily trend back towards negative over night, thats the one thing i dont like about bastardi, he changes stances like the flip of a quarter

Oh I agree. He likes to hug the Euro but in weather you can always come up with ways to look for alternatives based on a certain set of variables to get the outcome you want (or in his case predicted). Yes, they're still some options where this goes back to a colder pattern in a few days but you also have to acknowledge the trends as they appear now and outside of the CMC/GEPS, the cold next week for now looks manageable.

The good thing if you're rooting for more cold is we're still over a week away and a lot can change but for now that's the trend.

[Stratton23]

txwtwister78 I 100% agree on the trends, since we are still in watch phase of how the models evolve, just kinda annoys me when someone that publishes videos is quick to flip their stance in a single day, even as a very cold biased person myself, im not jumping the gun on bigger cold unless i see that EPO get better on the EPS, at this point ill take 40’s and 50’a over what we are seeing outside right now lol

[txtwister78]

txwtwister78 I 100% agree on the trends, since we are still in watch phase of how the models evolve, just kinda annoys me when someone that publishes videos is quick to flip their stance in a single day, even as a very cold biased person myself, im not jumping the gun on bigger cold unless i see that EPO get better on the EPS, at this point ill take 40’s and 50’a over what we are seeing outside right now lol

Honestly I was a little surprised by him doing that. He's typically not one to change that quickly or at least create doubt. In fact, he's often criticized for holding on to something too long before waving the white flag. We shall see

[Stratton23]

Nothing crazy, but the 18z GEFS through hour 198 is colder, looks similar to the CMC/ GEPS

[Cpv17]

Nothing crazy, but the 18z GEFS through hour 198 is colder, looks similar to the CMC/ GEPS

I’m just trying to give my AC a break in my house lol 40’s and 50’s would do it. I would absolutely love a historic cold snap, but not gonna get my hopes up for that. Honestly, I don’t even think what we had in January (as far as cold goes) was even all that impressive.

[wxman22]

18Z GEFS

[rwfromkansas]

Much colder than I expected today. Left my jacket at home.

[Brent]

Our met is talking about the models backing off the cold

Although given how poorly today's forecast was not sure anyone should be making assumptions about next week yet

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I've heard mention about a pv split. Maybe it's not happening now. Not sure. With the mjo moving into more favorable phases, it would seem to me that models would adjust colder and ensembles after mid February unless I'm missing something. I still am hopeful we will have one more opportunity at a winter event