Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[DentonGal]

Just curious. Does anyone still have any snow on the ground? Up here in Denton in the shaded areas there is still some, very little, but it's still there. Also on the UNT campus the students rolled this huge, I mean HUGE, snowball that is still outside my building. It's crazy!!!!

We still have snow in south Denton in the shady areas, and remnants of the snowman and igloo! Crazy to see a week after the event.

[southerngale]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/UKHEMI_12z/f96.gif

Could you please elaborate for us UKMET-challenged folks?

The UKMET (United Kingdom Meteorological office's model) agrees with the GFS and European model in bringing a storm across Texas next Tuesday.

Thanks. I'm familiar with the UKMET, particularly during Hurricane Season, but couldn't make much of that map. I see the 500mb lines, but don't see any precip. The swirling hurricanes in the animations are much easier to decipher. hehe

[Weatherdude20]

Anyone care to help update the thread over the weekend?

[Ntxw]

One thing to note, those in NW Tx and southern Oklahoma shouldn't write this off yet, way too early. Remember the last storm kept everything south of I-20 on the models and it turned out a healthy swath of 6+ was right along the Red River counties. I find it hard to believe all the precip in Tx panhandle doesn't make a move there. This storm looks almost a mirror image of it. The difference in this storm is there is a wider area of cold air making for a larger area of snow.

[msstateguy83]

exactly i will say it rightnow and iam not gonna change my opinion the most heavy snow fall out of this sucker will be on the nw side of i-20 west of the metroplex up into nw tx, out into the panhandle... just my feelings at the moment i know the models wanna push it all further south but iam not buying it and likely will be changes before the event takes hold...

[Portastorm]

exactly i will say it rightnow and iam not gonna change my opinion the most heavy snow fall out of this sucker will be on the nw side of i-20 west of the metroplex up into nw tx, out into the panhandle... just my feelings at the moment i know the models wanna push it all further south but iam not buying it and likely will be changes before the event takes hold...

Well there's a bold forecaster! Hey msstateguy83, you're batting .667 this winter so it's hard to argue against you right now.

We're gonna hold you to this.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Storm Tracks from HPC (19Z)...remember that it will change several times...

[WacoWx]

Say for instance that someone in Waco wants a mega blizzard, where do I want which of those Lows ^^^to go compared to their current placement on that graphic?

[jasons2k]

OK, so we *just now* got some model agreement/support for this and now everyone seems to know (or wants to know) when/where/how much. It's still WAY too premature folks. Give it until Sunday before getting into specifics. Anything before that isn't much more than speculation. JMHO.

[Ntxw]

Say for instance that someone in Waco wants a mega blizzard, where do I want which of those Lows ^^^to go compared to their current placement on that graphic?

Moisture isn't the problem, whether the low is in Salado or DFW waco gets a lot of precip. It's the position of the cold air. Generally the north and western flanks of lows are the coldest parts to the storms (General theory is storms rides along the boundaries therefore usually south track means everyone north is in the colder sector). Without cold enough air, the low over you would just enhance the heavy rain.

[HockeyTx82]

Updated Storm Tracks from HPC (19Z)...remember that it will change several times...

I assume we are wanting it to go further south or is the air going to be cold enough for snow no matter what? Also which L are we needing to watch?

[Portastorm]

Say for instance that someone in Waco wants a mega blizzard, where do I want which of those Lows ^^^to go compared to their current placement on that graphic?

Moisture isn't the problem, whether the low is in Salado or DFW waco gets a lot of precip. It's the position of the cold air. Generally the north and western flanks of lows are the coldest parts to the storms.

Well ... also keep in mind that the map only shows surface lows. What would probably give Waco and Austin sleet or snow will be the upper level trough which swings through the state per the models.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Storm Tracks from HPC (19Z)...remember that it will change several times...

I assume we are wanting it to go further south or is the air going to be cold enough for snow no matter what? Also which L are we needing to watch?

These are surface lows. The Low off CA is the one we will be watching. As Portastorm just stated, the Upper Low will need to be watched carefully.

[Ntxw]

Say for instance that someone in Waco wants a mega blizzard, where do I want which of those Lows ^^^to go compared to their current placement on that graphic?

Moisture isn't the problem, whether the low is in Salado or DFW waco gets a lot of precip. It's the position of the cold air. Generally the north and western flanks of lows are the coldest parts to the storms.

Well ... also keep in mind that the map only shows surface lows. What would probably give Waco and Austin sleet or snow will be the upper level trough which swings through the state per the models.

I suppose that's what's keeping the accumulations down further south, the further north the more cold air there is to work with from the start. And I agree completely too far for specific amounts. But hey Portastorm! This may be the last hurrah of winter, minus the type of winter we're in, so lets make it count!

[iorange55]

I've been busy all day, and have skimmed through the pages, and what I got is that a snow event is becoming more likely?

[Ntxw]

I've been busy all day, and have skimmed through the pages, and what I got is that a snow event is becoming more likely?

Wxman thinks so. Says 4-6 for north Texas.

[Portastorm]

I suppose that's what's keeping the accumulations down further south, the further north the more cold air there is to work with from the start. And I agree completely too far for specific amounts. But hey Portastorm! This may be the last hurrah of winter, minus the type of winter we're in, so lets make it count!

I'm with you! I'm hoping this is a nice, big statewide event. Winter fun for everyone!!

[msstateguy83]

good points jason but that map of the surface low should be a good key for folks
in here who have maybe less exp in forecasting that upper low off the coast of cali
will be VERY MUCH the key to how this whole thing unfolds a further north track will
take it into mostly into far n.tx, up into ok and a further south track it would effect
a larger portion of texas, these things tend to have a mind of their own and the forecast
usually isnt clear until a day or two out so just stay tuned...

[srainhoutx]

Also will add the the Free Site for the ECMWF offered a little bonus freebie today. Precip Maps...

Hour 96...



Hour 108...

[WacoWx]

when does the next round of model data come in so I can quit checking here ever 30 seconds for updates?