Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Warm pool continues to heat up. I noticed the euro has been going back and forth between runs with warmth and cold, Alaskan trough will happen and we will warm but it's appearing more likely it will get flushed by more ridging moving into the GOA. Models continue to lose the battle with the NE Pac. Planting and budding will be a fatal mistake if it feels warm.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: Warm pool continues to heat up. I noticed the euro has been going back and forth between runs with warmth and cold, Alaskan trough will happen and we will warm but it's appearing more likely it will get flushed by more ridging moving into the GOA. Models continue to lose the battle with the NE Pac. Planting and budding will be a fatal mistake if it feels warm.

You mean more extreme cold if it happens?

[TheProfessor]

Very slow day today.

[aggiecutter]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30.
WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT TO RANGE FROM HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY TO THE 20S ON MONDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ABOVE THE COOL SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS TO
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30 BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE REGION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW FROM INTERSTATE 20 NORTHWARD WITH
FREEZING RAIN THREAT POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND NORTH LOUISIANA. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.

[Tcu101]

Very slow day today.

Everyone is enjoying the sunshine At least I am today

[ravyrn]

Oh Boy!

Computer models continue to indicate a decent chance for yet another round of a "Wintry Mix" across portions of the south, including ‪#‎ETX‬ and stretching across the ArkLaTex into Tenn, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into the Carolinas.

This setup would be the results of moisture riding up and over a cold airmass moving in from the north. The initial stage of air would be fairly dense, meaning sleet and frz. rain could be an issue until the colder air builds through the entire column.

*** Still plenty of time for changes and updates to the exact details but a possible wintry mix of weather including: Rain, Frz. Rain, Sleet, and Snow Monday night into Tuesday.
http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/1710/7nxa.png

[katheria]

Off topic:

Mentioned last year in the texas forums, but for the new members and since spring is fast approaching...

MetEd has the SkyWarn classes online for those that cant make it to the local training....

Role of the spotter
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_mod ... va4HrQiXik
and
Skywarn spotter training
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=23

MetEd also has ton of other free classes to take....

I really liked the Course Summer Severe Weather its long takes about 20 hours

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=2

[TheProfessor]

Thank you very much. I only get to go every other year when they have it at Colleyville.

[gto67]

No sun in Weimar today and I hope I get see it tomorrow. I just built a deck and I need one day above 60F to get it stained.

[TheProfessor]

Ill be posting some pictures from Thursday soon.

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: Warm pool continues to heat up. I noticed the euro has been going back and forth between runs with warmth and cold, Alaskan trough will happen and we will warm but it's appearing more likely it will get flushed by more ridging moving into the GOA. Models continue to lose the battle with the NE Pac. Planting and budding will be a fatal mistake if it feels warm.

You mean more extreme cold if it happens?

Extreme cold events (severely negative WSI events with record cold that send a certain Heat Miser packing for the equator) are becoming less likely (in the southern part of the state, at least) due to the daily increase in time of daylight, changing angle of the sun, etc.

Such record cold events are the ones we talk about in hushed tones from the likes of 1899, 1983, 1989, etc.

But seasonal to even moderately cold air masses are possible deep into the month of March. Even in Houston, those can be enough to keep the Heat Miser searching for his wool long johns for a few miserable bike rides.

[Texas Snowman]

What's more, as Ntxw has pointed out, it doesn't have to be severely cold for snow and ice events to occur in Texas, even deep into March.

A few years ago, we had an eight-inch snowfall here in Grayson County that occurred in mid-March. It melted the next day...and was followed up a day and a half later by a seven-inch snowfall. It too melted pretty quick, but it was still a very memorable week up here with 15" in less than five days time.

During the winter of 2009-10 (the real snowy winter here in North Texas) we also had a five-inch snowfall in very late March (like March 25th or so).

Even down south (the Waco area) and out west (Brownwood, Sweetwater, Abilene), there have been some measurable snows in late March/early April in the past several years. The latter was a multi-inch snowfall on Easter weekend several years back if memory serves correct.

So bottom line, the window of opportunity for winter weather this season in many portions of Texas is far from over.

Even in a certain Capitol City.

[Texas Snowman]

Went back and looked for dates on the above late season snowfalls I mentioned.

* The two big snowfalls here in Grayson County during the same week of March occurred on March 4 and March 6, 2008.

* The late March 2010 snowfall in Denison was on March 20, 2010 and was between four and five inches in the northern half of the county.

* The April snowfall in Abilene/Sweetwater/Brownwood was on April 5, 1996. Some 9.3 was measured in Abilene while more than a foot was measured in other portions of the Big Country.

*The April snow in Central Texas was on April 7, 2007 when 3.4 inches fell in Waco and as much as 4 to 5 inches fell in Temple.

[ravyrn]

:uarrow: Went back and looked for dates on the above late season snowfalls I mentioned.

* The two big snowfalls here in Grayson County during the same week of March occurred on March 4 and March 6, 2008.

* The late March 2010 snowfall in Denison was on March 20, 2010 and was between four and five inches in the northern half of the county.

* The April snowfall in Abilene/Sweetwater/Brownwood was on April 5, 1996. Some 9.3 was measured in Abilene while more than a foot was measured in other portions of the Big Country.

*The April snow in Central Texas was on April 7, 2007 when 3.4 inches fell in Waco and as much as 4 to 5 inches fell in Temple.

The panhandle, of course, is the big late season snowgetter. I believe it was this past May that Amarillo had a hefty snowfall.

[Texas Snowman]

They did have some snow on May 1st of last year, although I couldn't find an official amount.

And they also got socked with a huge blizzard on Feb. 25, 2013 when 17-inches fell in Amarillo and up to 19-inches fell in other portions of the Panhandle.

My point in all of this is to remind that the signals Ntxw has been pointing out should bring another opportunity or two to many of us this winter.

There is still a good one month to even one and a half month long window for winter weather events to occur in many portions of Texas.

I remain confident that many of us - perhaps even Portastorm - will see something else in our backyards before the winter of 2013-14 has run its course.

[Ntxw]

Funny thing is, the daily EPO is now -360 which is the lowest it's been this season, WPO is equally as low. Yet the guidance is all pointing towards a significant warm up. Very fascinating stuff, I still think there is a disconnect between ESRL, Wxbell, and daily numbers such a difficult index to maintain.

[JDawg512]

I was outside most of the day enjoying this great weather and trying to do what little yard work and gardening I could manage without causing more pain in my ribs. I noticed several native spring bloomers budding up from the ground. We will see a few more freezes I'm sure but generally when I see those guys budding just barely above the soil with that lovely early Spring green, I know that it won't be long before the transitional phase begins.

I can hardly wait! Spring is my absolute favorite season. It is the most beautiful of all the seasons and my birthday just happens to be roughly a week after the Spring Equinox. Spring also brings my most favorite weather events as well...

[Ntxw]

Out of curiosity I decided to look at the past 50 or so years (since 1960) to see which years had DJF all average below and there is only a handful. Surprisingly the 80s had none using 1981-2010 climo. One notable set of years left out was 77-78, DFW's coldest winter. December of that winter averaged slightly above but Jan<- coldest month ever for Dallas and Feb were frigid.

13/14* (still ongoing and subject to change but is to date)
09/10
93/94
78/79
76/77
72/73
67/68
63/64

The following March-April period tended to average below normal continuing. Interesting that most of these years featured a tendency of a warmer NE Pacific. Meaning a cool spring is the most likely outcome using DFW data.



Lots of numbers to crunch so if anyone finds a year that needs to be added feel free to mention

[stephen23]

Out of curiosity I decided to look at the past 50 or so years (since 1960) to see which years had DJF all average below and there is only a handful. Surprisingly the 80s had none using 1981-2010 climo. One notable set of years left out was 77-78, DFW's coldest winter. December of that winter averaged slightly above but Jan<- coldest month ever for Dallas and Feb were frigid.

13/14* (still ongoing and subject to change but is to date)
09/10
93/94
78/79
76/77
72/73
67/68
63/64




The following March-April period tended to average below normal continuing. Interesting that most of these years featured a tendency of a warmer NE Pacific. Meaning a cool spring is the most likely outcome using DFW data.

http://i58.tinypic.com/f00q4o.png

Lots of numbers to crunch so if anyone finds a year that needs to be added feel free to mention

I know this is a little off subject of Texas weather but I ran the years you have posted against Tropical activity in the gulf in the summers following those winters and this is what I found. It is a little interesting


2010= 1 hurricane, 2 tropical storms, and 2 depressions making landfall in gulf
1994=3 ts making landfall gulf/1 td and 1 ts making landfall east coast
1979= 1 maj, 1 hurr, and 2 ts making landfall gulf/ 1 hurr and 1 td making landfall east coast
1978= 2 ts making landfall gulf
1977=1 hurr landfall gulf/ one td landfall east coast
1973= 2 ts landfall gulf/1 ts landfall east coast
1968=3 hurr, 1 ts landfall gulf/1 hurr landfall east coast
1964=2 hurr, 2 ts landfall gulf/2 hurr east coast

It appears the gulf has been hit with some type of tropical system on every year we have had a below average winter back to 1964.

[TheProfessor]

I hope some more hurricanes hit the gulf. I love when they hit the Texas coast and turn up towards Dallas. They bring tons of rain.