Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

Down from 45 to 39 here in Denison over the last hour and a half to two hours.

[Ralph's Weather]

I know its almost impossible to predict at this point, but will a flight be able to get out of DFW tomorrow at 6:30pm?

Odds of it not being cancelled?

I expect things will probably be back up and running by then. Maybe some delays from earlier cancellations and deicing.

[Texas Snowman]

I know its almost impossible to predict at this point, but will a flight be able to get out of DFW tomorrow at 6:30pm?

Odds of it not being cancelled?

I expect things will probably be back up and running by then. Maybe some delays from earlier cancellations and deicing.

I would agree with Ralph. Wild cards are how much DFW gets, how long cloud cover holds post-storm, whether temps get above freezing and where your flight is going to. Going to be a mess at some other airports tomorrow.

[Longhornmaniac8]

EWX just hoisted the winter weather warning. Got a notification on my phone.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AN
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATION PLAINS...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES...WITH FURTHER COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST GULF
AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WITH THE RESULT EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS IS A LONGER PERIOD BELOW
FREEZING...AND HIGHER FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IN THE
WARNING AREA. WE EXPECT THIS EVENT MAY HAVE THE LARGEST IMPACT OF
THE WINTER WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN. FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE TO 1/10 INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
WARNING AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT FROM NEW BRAUNFELS TO SAN ANTONIO TO
BRACKETTVILLE.

TXZ171>173-183>192-050045-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0003.150305T0600Z-150305T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA AFTER 6
PM...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER NOON THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CAUSING ICING OF 1/10 INCH
AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ICY ROADS AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SIDEWALKS...DECKS...AND OTHER SURFACES MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO WALK ON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

$$

[WacoWx]

Great thanks guys. I'm trying to remain positive.

[weatherdude1108]

I just got this same message on my phone, and checked here to try to post it. You beat me to the post!

[Longhornmaniac8]

Great thanks guys. I'm trying to remain positive.

I wouldn't, if I were you. Even if DFW is functioning tomorrow evening, it's going to be a total crapshoot in terms of whether your plane will be in the right spot, whether your crew will be in the right spot, etc. I'd call AA right now and try to get protected on a flight out the next day (will be easier if you have status).

[Portastorm]

Gee, who has been saying this same thing for the last 24 hours?

Props to SouthernMet and downsouthman1 who also recognized this threat for our area of the state.

[Ntxw]

Pulling for you Portastorm, lets go out with a bang and give wxman57 a run for his money

[wxman57]

6Z GFS says cold rain in Austin with surface temps 33-34 during the precip. As the precip ends Thursday morning the air column aloft cools enough for sleet. 6Z NAM is warmer than the GFS for the Austin area. 00Z Euro drops Austin's temps to around 33 on Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, I went out to get the paper at 5:30 this morning and enjoyed the low of 70 degrees.

Not sure where you got your information, sir. I just saw a 0z Euro map which has the freezing line south of Travis County at 12z Thursday with a 0.10-0.25 QPF bullseye on it.

Looks like our database is missing a critical time period (12Z Thursday) in both the ECMWF and GFS runs. We've had connection issues. I didn't notice the missing time periods when looping through the data. ECMWF does have Austin between 30-31 on Thursday morning.

[downsouthman1]

:uarrow:

Gee, who has been saying this same thing for the last 24 hours?

Props to SouthernMet and downsouthman1 who also recognized this threat for our area of the state.

Thanks. And props to you Porta for being more than extremely patient while awaiting EWX to do the right thing.

[wxman57]

Pulling for you Portastorm, lets go out with a bang and give wxman57 a run for his money

Freezing rain doesn't count as a "football kicker". Only snow...

[Portastorm]

Pulling for you Portastorm, lets go out with a bang and give wxman57 a run for his money

Yes, I hope we all can get in on this one ... North and South Texas! Maybe even we can coax a few sleet pellets on top of wxman57's house! But he's going to be mad about this one and he's already planning on turning up the thermostat in a few months. I know we'll pay dearly.

[Tammie]

Currently 43 in Denton and there appears to be some type of snow or sleet mixed in. Is that even possible??? Very light and white, but definitely not all rain.

[Tireman4]

Pulling for you Portastorm, lets go out with a bang and give wxman57 a run for his money

Yes, I hope we all can get in on this one ... North and South Texas! Maybe even we can coax a few sleet pellets on top of wxman57's house! But he's going to be mad about this one and he's already planning on turning up the thermostat in a few months. I know we'll pay dearly.

That would be cool...

[Ralph's Weather]

Currently 43 in Denton and there appears to be some type of snow or sleet mixed in. Is that even possible??? Very light and white, but definitely not all rain.

The RAP sounding for Denton looks like it should only be rain as the freezing level is still at 650mb and 850mb temps are in the upper 40s with no freezing level below that so I doubt there is any mixing quite yet.

[Portastorm]

6Z GFS says cold rain in Austin with surface temps 33-34 during the precip. As the precip ends Thursday morning the air column aloft cools enough for sleet. 6Z NAM is warmer than the GFS for the Austin area. 00Z Euro drops Austin's temps to around 33 on Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, I went out to get the paper at 5:30 this morning and enjoyed the low of 70 degrees.

Not sure where you got your information, sir. I just saw a 0z Euro map which has the freezing line south of Travis County at 12z Thursday with a 0.10-0.25 QPF bullseye on it.

Looks like our database is missing a critical time period (12Z Thursday) in both the ECMWF and GFS runs. We've had connection issues. I didn't notice the missing time periods when looping through the data. ECMWF does have Austin between 30-31 on Thursday morning.

Don't worry. This is probably the only time in history where I was right on something we didn't agree on. You know the line about a blind squirrel finding an acorn every now and then ... that applies here.

[weatherdude1108]

On a separate note, if we want to post pics/vids later of the event, what site do we use to do that?

[horns0314]

I swear I saw some type of flakes in downtown Dallas as well. Thought I was just seeing things.

[downsouthman1]

FRZR has begun in Wichita Falls.